Atlantic Basin ForecastsDr. Bill Gray and his colleagues at Colorado State University have devised a system of forecasting tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin prior to the start of each hurricane season. Below are the forecasts for the past several years, including the current forecast for this year. For more information on the Colorado State Tropical Meteorology Project, check out http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu
| 2005 Forecast | ||||||||
| Forecast Parameters | 1950-2000 Mean | 03 Dec 2004 Fcst. | 01 Apr 2005 Fcst. | 31 May 2005 Fcst. | Aug 2005 Fcst. | Sep 2005 Fcst. | Oct 2005 Fcst. | Observed in 2005 |
| Named Storms (NS) | 9.6 | 11 | 13 | 15 | x | x | x | x |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 49.1 | 55 | 65 | 75 | x | x | x | x |
| Hurricanes (H) | 5.9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | x | x | x | x |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 24.5 | 25 | 35 | 45 | x | x | x | x |
| Intense Hurricanes - Cat 3, 4, 5 (IH) | 2.3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | x | x | x | x |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) | 5.0 | 6 | 7 | 11 | x | x | x | x |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 100% | 115% | 135% | 170% | x% | x% | x% | x |
| 2004 Forecast | ||||||||
| Forecast Parameters | 1950-2000 Mean | 05 Dec 2003 Fcst. | 02 Apr 2004 Fcst. | 28 May 2004 Fcst. | 06 Aug 2004 Fcst. | 03 Sep 2004 Fcst. | 01 Oct 2004 Fcst. | Observed in 2004 |
| Named Storms (NS) | 9.6 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 49.1 | 55 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 70 | 96 | x |
| Hurricanes (H) | 5.9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 24.5 | 30 | 35 | 35 | 30 | 40 | 52 | x |
| Intense Hurricanes - Cat 3, 4, 5 (IH) | 2.3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) | 5.0 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 23 | x |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) | 72.7 | 85 | 100 | 100 | 85 | x | x | x |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 100% | 125% | 145% | 145% | 125% | 185% | 240% | x |
| 2003 Forecast | ||||||||
| Forecast Parameters | 1950-2000 Mean | 06 Dec 2002 Fcst. | 04 Apr 2003 Fcst. | 30 May 2003 Fcst. | 06 Aug 2003 Fcst. | 03 Sep 2003 Fcst. | 02 Oct 2003 Fcst. | Observed in 2003 |
| Named Storms (NS) | 9.6 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 49.1 | 65 | 65 | 70 | 60 | 55 | 70 | 71 |
| Hurricanes (H) | 5.9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 24.5 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 25 | 25 | 35 | 32 |
| Intense Hurricanes - Cat 3, 4, 5 (IH) | 2.3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) | 5.0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 17 |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) | 72.7 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 80 | 80 | 125 | 132 |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 100% | 140% | 140% | 145% | 120% | 130% | 155% | 168% |
| 2002 Forecast | |||||||
| Forecast Parameters | 1950-2000 Mean | 07 Dec 2001 Fcst. | 05 Apr 2002 Fcst. | 31 May 2002 Fcst. | 07 Aug 2002 Fcst. | 02 Sep 2002 Fcst. | Observed in 2002 |
| Named Storms (NS) | 9.6 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 49.1 | 70 | 65 | 55 | 35 | 25 | 54 |
| Hurricanes (H) | 5.9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 24.5 | 35 | 30 | 25 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Intense Hurricanes - Cat 3, 4, 5 (IH) | 2.3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) | 5.0 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2.5 |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) | 72.7 | 90 | 85 | 75 | 35 | 25 | 31 |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 100% | 140% | 125% | 100% | 60% | 45% | 80% |
| 2001 Forecast | ||||||
| Forecast Parameters | 1950-1990 Mean | 07 Dec 2000 Fcst. | 06 Apr 2001 Fcst. | 07 Jun 2001 Fcst. | 07 Aug 2001 Fcst. | Observed in 2001 |
| Named Storms (NS) | 9.3 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 46.9 | 45 | 50 | 60 | 60 | 59 |
| Hurricanes (H) | 5.8 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 23.7 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 30 | 24 |
| Intense Hurricanes - Cat 3, 4, 5 (IH) | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) | 4.7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) | 70.6 | 65 | 65 | 75 | 75 | 65 |
| Maximum Potential Destruction (MPD) | 61.7 | 60 | 60 | 70 | 70 | 83 |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 100% | 90% | 100% | 120% | 120% | 132% |
| 2000 Forecast | ||||||
| Forecast Parameters | 1950-1990 Mean | 08 Dec 1999 Fcst. | 07 Apr 2000 Fcst. | 07 Jun 2000 Fcst. | 04 Aug 2000 Fcst. | Observed in 2000 |
| Named Storms (NS) | 9.3 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 46.9 | 55 | 55 | 65 | 55 | 66 |
| Hurricanes (H) | 5.8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 23.7 | 25 | 25 | 35 | 30 | 32 |
| Intense Hurricanes - Cat 3, 4, 5 (IH) | 2.2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) | 4.7 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5.25 |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) | 70.6 | 85 | 85 | 100 | 90 | 85 |
| Maximum Potential Destruction (MPD) | 61.7 | 70 | 70 | 75 | 70 | 78 |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 100% | 125% | 125% | 150% | x% | 134% |
| 1999 Forecast | ||||||
| Forecast Parameters | 1950-1990 Mean | 04 Dec 1998 Fcst. | 07 Apr 1999 Fcst. | 04 Jun 1999 Fcst. | 06 Aug 1999 Fcst. | Observed in 1999 |
| Named Storms (NS) | 9.3 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 46.9 | 65 | 65 | 75 | 75 | 77 |
| Hurricanes (H) | 5.8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 23.7 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 43 |
| Intense Hurricanes - Cat 3, 4, 5 (IH) | 2.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) | 4.7 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 15 |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) | 70.6 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 145 |
| Maximum Potential Destruction (MPD) | 61.7 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 114 |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 100% | 160% | 160% | 160% | 160% | 193% |
| 1998 Forecast | ||||||
| Forecast Parameters | 1950-1990 Mean | Dec Fcst. | Apr Fcst. | Jun Fcst. | Aug Fcst. | Observed in 1998 |
| Named Storms (NS) | 9.3 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 46.9 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Hurricanes (H) | 5.8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 10 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 23.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Intense Hurricanes - Cat 3, 4, 5 (IH) | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) | 4.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) | 70.6 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Maximum Potential Destruction (MPD) | 61.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 100% | x% | x% | x% | x% | x% |
| 1997 Forecast | ||||||
| Forecast Parameters | 1950-1990 Mean | Dec Fcst. | Apr Fcst. | Jun Fcst. | Aug Fcst. | Observed in 1997 |
| Named Storms (NS) | 9.3 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 7 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 46.9 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Hurricanes (H) | 5.8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 23.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Intense Hurricanes - Cat 3, 4, 5 (IH) | 2.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) | 4.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) | 70.6 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Maximum Potential Destruction (MPD) | 61.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 100% | x% | x% | x% | x% | x% |
| 1996 Forecast | ||||||
| Forecast Parameters | 1950-1990 Mean | Dec Fcst. | Apr Fcst. | Jun Fcst. | Aug Fcst. | Observed in 1996 |
| Named Storms (NS) | 9.3 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 46.9 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Hurricanes (H) | 5.8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 23.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Intense Hurricanes - Cat 3, 4, 5 (IH) | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) | 4.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) | 70.6 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Maximum Potential Destruction (MPD) | 61.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 100% | 1x% | x% | x% | x% | x% |
| 1995 Forecast | ||||||
| Forecast Parameters | 1950-1990 Mean | Dec Fcst. | Apr Fcst. | Jun Fcst. | Aug Fcst. | Observed in 1995 |
| Named Storms (NS) | 9.3 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 19 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) | 46.9 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Hurricanes (H) | 5.8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) | 23.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Intense Hurricanes - Cat 3, 4, 5 (IH) | 2.2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) | 4.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) | 70.6 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Maximum Potential Destruction (MPD) | 61.7 | x | x | x | x | x |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) | 100% | x% | x% | x% | x% | x% |