Politics in Slovakia continues to be hard on the country's democratic evolution. The past year alone has seen the subversion of a national referendum and the illegal ouster of an elected deputy from the Slovak Parliament, both of which are attributed to the machinations of the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS), the country's ascendant political power. Will 1998 prove to be any kinder to this fledgling democracy? HZDS, with its 61 seats in the national parliament, is the leader of the three-party, populist-nationalist, government coalition. Thus, while it certainly has the capacity to concentrate its efforts on the country's potentially debilitating problems, such as the growing current account deficit, the party's continuing focus appears to be on its own political aggrandizement. A clear example of this is the government's proposal to limit, through the proposed amendment to the "Act on the National Bank of Slovakia" (NBS), the independence of the NBS. This proposal would present the government with the opportunity to influence the operation of the bank's board by granting the government extra powers which would allow it to name and recall five out of ten members of the board without the prior approval of the NBS governor. In addition, the amendment strips the bank's governor of the right to cast the decisive vote in a five-five situation, which would mean that the NBS board would not be able to take any decision without the support of at least one government appointee. A further example of HZDS's misguided and, indeed, illegal use of its political leverage was the refusal of Slovak Interior Minister Krajci, an HZDS appointee, to allow a question concerning the direct election of the president to be printed on a ballot prepared for the national referendum held in May of 1997. This action directly contravened the previously stated position of the Slovak Constitutional Court and is presumed to have been undertaken to provoke the current parliamentary stalemate for the specific purpose of enhancing the prime minister's powers. Had the referendum passed, the Slovak electorate may have been able to translate their relative dissatisfaction with the government coalition, as the latest opinion polls indicate, into a win for the presidential candidate of the country's largest opposition group, the Slovak Democratic Alliance (SDK). Instead, however, it seems that because neither the governing nor the opposition coalition will manage to garner the required three-fifths parliamentary majority to elect a president, there will be no replacement for the current president when his term of office expires in early March. This unfortunate scenario raises the specter of a prime minister assuming considerable presidential powers until which time a president is chosen, which is, as several political analysts have noted, exactly the outcome that Mr. Krajci and his party envisioned in thwarting the referendum. It is these, among other, arrogations of power which help to explain Slovakia's pariah status among western observers. Indeed, Slovakia was the only country of the former "Visegrad Group" to be denied the opportunity to begin accession talks with both the EU and NATO. As stated in a recent "Voice of America" broadcast, "Many observers have noted that Slovakia's most critical foreign policy issue is its domestic political situation. It is the main reason NATO and the European Union passed over Slovakia for membership, while inviting neighbors Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic." (VOA, February, 3 1998) That notwithstanding, however, it has been suggested that it is this very ostracism that has helped to solidify a fragmented opposition. Indeed, nearly eight months ahead of parliamentary elections, Slovakia's opposition holds a vigorous lead over the coalition of Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar. Recent opinion polls suggest that the SDK may command nearly 35 percent of the vote in this year's parliamentary elections, which would put it in a strong position to enter into a coalition government with minor parties. In fact, according to "Central Europe Online", a survey conducted in mid-January of this year put the combined support of opposition parties at 54.8 percent, as compared with 36.4 percent for the coalition government. Yet the SDK, with neither a compelling leader to date, clearly-defined platform nor sufficient funding, appears to be a rather tenuous entity. On the other hand, if the struggling Slovak economy can manage to hold up, HZDS, with the charismatic prime minister to guide it, is likely to remain formidable into the fall elections. Indeed, its leaders are now in the process of designing an amendment to the constitution which is intended to dilute the strength of the opposition. This amendment, which is slated for discussion by the government this month and passage by the parliament in March, sets a five-percent mandatory vote threshold for each party running for parliament, irrespective of any membership in a coalition. Its effect would be to reduce the size of the opposition coalition SDK to the extent that a HZDS/Slovak Nationalist Party (SNS) coalition government becomes a viable prospect in the fall. Of further importance to the prospects of HZDS is its considerable financial resources. Because the party and its minor coalition partners now govern the economy in tandem with the Association of Employers' Unions and Alliances (which itself represents the real winners of the country's privatization process: the power broker owners of country's industrial giants such as Slovnaft and VSZ Steelworks), HZDS has the financial muscle to supplement the sizable political support it still enjoys. Thus, 1998 should indeed prove to be a watershed year in the history of the Slovak democratic experience. As movers and shakers of Slovak politics continue to maneuver for position in advance of this year's parliamentary election, one can only hope that the Slovak people fully realize the magnitude of importance attached to the election results. The outcome of the contest will have enormous implications not only for development of Slovak democracy, but for that of its economy and geopolitical orientation as well. A win by HZDS surely would be a chilling and dynastic portent, and a potentiality to which the Slovak electorate should pay uncharacteristic heed. Sources: Mass media: Other: Mark Mooney
| |||