The Australian, 4th December 1998
By Scott Emerson, Queensland bureau chief
This weekend will see One Nation suffer its first political loss as the seat of Mulgrave returns to either Labor or the Nationals at a by-election caused by the resignation last month of Charles Rappolt.
The defeat will be another nail in the coffin for One Nation as a political force.
But even before the first vote is cast in the southern Cairns electorate, Pauline Hanson's party is showing every sign of being in terminal decline in its Queensland heartland.
This was obvious at the party's state conference at Rockhampton last weekend. More than 130 delegates from branches across the state attended the meeting, the agenda of which was dominated by calls for greater democracy and the overthrow of the private company which runs One Nation and is controlled by Hanson and the two Davids, Oldfield and Ettridge.
Making the calls were disaffected and dissatisfied individuals who had abandoned the main parties in the belief that in One Nation there was at last a political organisation which would listen to their concerns. These were the rebels who were wooed by Hanson and co with the promise of being at the vanguard of a political revolution.
In the lead-up to the Rockhampton meeting, there was talk of a grassroots revolt to reclaim One Nation for the party's rank-and-file. But once the meeting began, the bravado turned to bleating as the rebels were reduced to sheep in the face of a tongue lashing from Hanson and Oldfield.
Their numbers had already been reduced by a party purge in the weeks leading up to the state conference. And both Hanson and Oldfield warned that any other dissenters could also depart.
Hanson herself dismissed the calls for democracy with the remark:
"Democracy really means mob rule".
In the end the votes were all but unanimous in support of Hanson and co and the cringing, kowtowing delegates left with tails between their legs.
Oldfield even confidently predicted that any similar move to depose the party leadership at a national conference in Sydney in January would also fail.
That One Nation remains so dominated by the triumverate of Hanson, Oldfield and Ettridge and unwilling to tolerate dissent demonstrates how fragile the fledgling party remains less than five months after it won eleven seats at the Queensland election.
That victory sent a shiver through the main political parties in the lead-up to an unpredictable federal election.
But the state election result can now been (sic) seen as the high water mark for One Nation which, with hindsight, has been in decline ever since.
The party's leadership will deny that, citing the ambiguous result of the federal poll, where One Nation received one million votes but reaped only a sole senate spot, which is now the subject of several legal challenges.
But what the Mulgrave by-election will do is deliver One Nation its first concrete political loss rather than a failure to win.
Rappolt won Mulgrave in June with 31% of the primary vote. Since he quit last month and subsequently attempted suicide, polls have shown that level of support collapsing to almost single figures.
Even Oldfield will only say the party's new candidate, Peter Boniface, will produce a credible performance rather than deliver victory in Mulgrave.
If the vote does show support for One Nation in steep decline, despite the campaigning efforts of Hanson, it will only hasten the party's demise, confirming it is not only as unresponsive and unrepresentative, but also ineffectual as a political vehicle.
Hanson and co will argue that the main political parties have ganged up on One Nation. But a fall in its primary vote will not be so easily dismissed.
The hope for One Nation is the NSW upper house at next March's elections, with Oldfield claiming the party might win three seats. But even such a result would still see the party condemned to the political periphery.
The voter frustration and dissatisfaction with the main political parties, which fuelled the rise of One Nation, remains. But there is a growing realisation among its one-time supporters and members that One Nation under Hanson and co is not the answer.
One Nation is not dead yet. But the battle of Mulgrave will loudly sound its death rattle.