BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
UNIVERSITY OF KENT AT CANTERBURY
INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT ANALYSIS
- Instructor: Jean-Sébastien Rioux
- Email: jrioux@vub.ac.be
- Office: Triomflaan 36, 2nd floor (top level); 02.629.38.96
- Hours: Tues & Wed, 10:00-12:00; Thurs 13:00-15:00; or by appointment
- Lectures: Wednesdays, 18:00-19:00, room G-021
Course aims and objectives
Overall, this course is intended as a survey of the topics, methods and findings found in the literature of the three major fields of the international conflict analysis research program: political science/international relations; strategic studies; and conflict management/peace research. At the end of the semester students should be able to:
- Explain and use key concepts in the study of conflict at various levels of analysis (group, societal, international);
- Access and utilize theoretical, historical, methodological, and empirical resources for the analysis of conflicts;
- Understand the scope and limits of tools for understanding the outbreak of violent conflicts and conflict resolution;
- Recognize the normative dimensions of conflict.
These objectives will be realized by examining, among others, the following topics:
- The social-scientific epistemology and methodological issues in the study of international conflict;
- Crisis escalation and decision-making;
- Survey of the major theories of conflict and war;
- Ethnic and irredentist conflicts and wars;
- Conflict prevention and preventive diplomacy;
- Forecasting conflict and early warning mechanisms.
Epistemology
We will address ICA using a social scientific approach to the analysis of conflict. A weekly lecture will introduce theories and findings and explain the material contained in the assigned readings, and then a weekly interactive seminar will provide a forum for students to discuss and examine in more depth some of the issues raised in the readings and lectures.
Preliminary and required readings
1) Preliminary readings are intended for students to acquire a “head start” on the material
- Cashman, Greg. 1993. What Causes War? An Introduction to Theories of International Conflict. Landham, MD: Lexington Books. (LOCATION: VUB - POLE - CENTRUM VOOR POLEMOLOGIE – on the 4th floor of the “M” building.)
- Nicholson, Michael. 1992. Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict. NY: Cambridge University Press. (LOCATION: VUB - POLE - CENTRUM VOOR POLEMOLOGIE – on the 4th floor of the “M” building.)
- Midlarsky, Manus I. Ed. 1993. Handbook of War Studies. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. (LOCATION: VUB LIBRARY - CB 327.6 G MIDL 89.)
- Vasquez, John A. 1993. The War Puzzle. NY: Cambridge University Press. (LOCATION: VUB - POLE - CENTRUM VOOR POLEMOLOGIE – on the 4th floor of the “M” building.)
- Carment, David, and Patrick James, eds. 1998. Peace in the Midst of Wars: Preventing and Managing International Ethnic Conflicts. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press. (LOCATION: VUB - POLE - CENTRUM VOOR POLEMOLOGIE; 4th floor , “M” building.)
2) Required readings for the course
- There is a required text for this course:
Geller, Daniel S., and J. David Singer. 1998. Nations at War: A Scientific Study of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521629063 (price: £ 12.51).
- A coursepac of the other required readings is available for copy at the BSIS office; see Anja.
3) Online resources to access conflict-related information on the Web
- I maintain a personal Web page that contains links and information on different topics related to international conflict as well as to this class: www.geocities.com/js_rioux
- Two of the best academic Web sites I know of are those of Richard Tucker and Paul Hensel:
- http://www.vanderbilt.edu/~rtucker/polisci/
- http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~phensel/
Teaching methodology
There are 12 lectures dealing with the major aspects of the subject. Each is designed to introduce major concepts and developments; to reflect critically on those; to situate each concept or development within the wider context of the course and of the discipline as a whole; and to provide navigation points through the relevant readings. Each lecture will be followed by a seminar in which the topic of the lecture will be discussed in depth. The seminars are intended to develop the skills of the students in expressing, attacking and defending academic positions and arguments. Through this, students will acquire greater familiarity with the subject matter.
1) Lecture sessions. The lecture session meets Wednesdays from 18:00 to 19:00 in G-021. I will introduce the major issues, theories, methodologies and findings in ICA to complement the assigned readings. Students must come to class having read all the required readings. Attendance is required.
2) Seminar sessions. These smaller weekly meetings provide an opportunity for students to interact with the instructor and fellow students, to ask questions, debate issues raised in the readings and share their different understandings of the readings. Attendance is required. The seminar sessions are held:
- Section 1: Wednesdays, 19:00-20:00 Room G-021 (intended mostly for part-time students);
- Section 2: Thursdays, 11:00-12:00: G-020 (except 05/10: F 203; 26/10: G 021; and 30/11: G021)
- Section 3: Thursdays, 16:00-17:00, F-104 (except on 02/11 when VUB is closed, TBA)
- Section 4: Thursdays, 18:00 until 19:00, F-108 (except 02/11, dittos).
Term Essay
This semester you are expected to write a 2000-3000 word essay (about 12 pages) on a precise topic. After the first two introductory class meetings you will notice there are nine thematic lecture meetings (see below in the Course Schedule). You are to select one of the lecture topics (e.g., the topic “The state and domestic sources of conflict” on October 18th) and write an essay on the major theories, hypotheses, methodologies and findings contained in the literature. The purposes of this assignment are to explore in greater depth the literature in one of the research programs; to understand the competing debates and theories; and to analyze and critique the methodologies and findings. Students may even offer an opinion, based on their analysis and personal knowledge, as to which competing theory or methodology best explains a particular cause of conflict or end to conflict. I will explain in more detail during the second lecture meeting.
During Week 5 (by Friday, Nov. 3rd) students are required to hand in a 500-750 word (at least two pages) topic proposal, worth 20% of the course mark. The purpose is to ensure that the essay is not written at the last minute, and also to spot those who may have misunderstood the instructions for the essay. The proposal must include (a) your topic; (b) the major theoretical currents found in the literature; (c) the major hypotheses that scholars have proposed; and (d) an annotated bibliography of at least 6 scholarly sources that you have actually read.
The final term essay is worth 80% of the course mark and will be evaluated in the following manner: logical structure and presentation (10%); extent of research (20%); quality of analysis and evaluation (50%); language & spelling (10%) and quality of documentation (10%). Essays are due on December 18th.
Recap: due dates
- Topic proposal: Friday, November 3rd at 12:00 noon.
- Term essay: Monday, December 18th at 12:00 noon.
Final notes
1. Language: even if English is not your native tongue, you are expected to demonstrate a certain level of proficiency in English writing and grammar. At a minimum, your computer should have a spell-check and grammar-check. Poor writing skills will result in lower marks for your assignments.
2. Extent of research and quality of documentation: There are at least five libraries in Brussels as listed in the blue booklet and on the BSIS web site. As graduate students, you are expected to spend some time in libraries digging up scholarly works. Failure to demonstrate some initiative and breadth of documentation could result in lower marks. Part-time students will find that libraries are open on weekends as well.
3. Plagiarism: this is an academic crime and any form of plagiarism results in automatic failure and possible expulsion. Please read the student handbook and consult one of the many available referencing guides to avoid this problem. When in doubt, pick up a scholarly journal such as Global Society and see how the “professionals” do it. If you have no clue what this whole paragraph is about then you already are in trouble and you should see your professors for guidance before you begin writing any assignments!
Course Lecture and Reading Schedule
DATE LECTURE / SEMINAR TOPIC
27 September
Welcome & introduction; distribution and reading of the syllabus.
Lecture 1: “The scientific method of inquiry and conflict analysis.”
Description of the scientific method of enquiry and how to formulate hypotheses about conflict behavior. Discussion of quantitative and qualitative methodologies in the scientific study of conflict to set the stage for the readings.
Required readings:
- Nicholson, Michael. 1992. Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 11-41.
- Cashman, Greg. 1993. What Causes War? An Introduction to Theories of International Conflict. Landham, MD: Lexington. Pages. 1-13.
- King, Gary, Robert O. Keohane and Sidney Verba. 1994. Designing Social Inquiry. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Chapter 1, pages 3-33.
- Diamond, Jared. 1987. “Soft Sciences Are Often Harder than the Hard Sciences.” Discover (August): 35-39.
Suggested readings:
- BSIS student handbook
- Preliminary reading list on page 2 of this syllabus
- Most, Benjamin, and Harvey Starr. 1989. Inquiry, Logic and International Politics. Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press.
- NOTE: you don’t have to rely solely on this suggested list; the best starting point for any ‘suggested reading’ list usually is the bibliographical section of the assigned readings!
4 October
Lecture 2: “The ontology of conflict.”
In this session we examine the various definitions of the nature of conflict and the levels of analysis we can employ to study conflict. The seminar session will focus student’s attention to variety of explanations as to the causes of conflict.
Required readings:
- Geller, Daniel S., and J. David Singer. 1998. Nations at War: A Scientific Study of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 1-30 (Introduction & Chapter 1).
- Maoz, Zeev. 1990. Paradoxes of war: on the art of national self-entrapment. Boston : Unwin Hyman. Pages 1-27.
- Brecher, Michael, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld. 1997. A Study of Crisis. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pages 1-38.
- Vasquez, John A. 1993. The War Puzzle. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 51-85.
Suggested readings: ? Waltz, Kenneth. 1959. Man, the State and War. New York: Colombia University Press.
- Singer, J. David. 1969. “The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations.” In International Politics and Foreign Policy, ed. James N. Rosenau. New York: The Free Press.
- Hensel, Paul. 1999. “Issues Correlates of War: Project Description.” Online document available at http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~phehsel/icow.html#desc
11 October
Lecture 3: “First image theories of conflict.”
The theories of conflict within the first level of analysis assume that conflict originates due to human nature itself. Root causes are said to be biological, psychological, or even spiritual (the ‘evil nature’ of Man).
Required readings: ? Waltz, Kenneth. 1959 [1969]. Man, the State and War. New York: Columbia University Press. Pages 16-79.
- Cashman, Greg. 1993. What Causes War? An Introduction to Theories of International Conflict. Landham, MD: Lexington Books. Pages 14-76.
- Stein, Janice Gross. 1989. “The Misperception of Threat.” In Robert O. Matthews, Arthur G. Rubinoff and Janice Gross Stein, eds., International Conflict and Conflict Management 2nd edition. Scarborough (Ontario): Prentice-Hall. Pages 30-44.
Suggested readings:
- Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
- Jervis, Robert. 1978. "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma." World Politics 30: 167-214.
18 October Lecture 4: “The state and domestic sources of conflict.”
Many root causes of conflict are found in the nature of the state (or society) itself. We focus on how domestic politics affect the war-proneness of states.
Required readings:
- Geller, Daniel S., and J. David Singer. 1998. Nations at War: A Scientific Study of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 46-67 (Chapter 3).
- Russett, Bruce, and Thomas W. Graham. 1993. “Public Opinion and National Security Policy: Relationships and Impacts.” In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pages 239-257.
- Levy, Jack S. 1993. “The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique.” In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pages 239-257.
- Choucri, Nazli, and Robert C. North. 1993. “Lateral Pressure in International Relations: Concept and Theory.” In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pages 289-326.
- Ray, James Lee. 1993. “Wars Between Democracies: Rare, or Nonexistent?” International Interactions 18 (3): 251-276.
Suggested readings:
- Layne, Christopher. 1994. “Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace.” International Security 9 (2): 5-49.
- Mansfield, Edward D., and Jack Snyder. 1995. “Democratization and War.” Foreign Affairs 74: 79-97.
- Levy, Jack S. 1988. "Domestic Politics and War." Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18: 653-674.
- James, Patrick, and John R. Oneal. 1991. "The Influence of Domestic and International Politics on the President's Use of Force." Journal of Conflict Resolution 35: 307-332.
25 October
Lecture 5: “Decision making and conflict escalation.”
Notwithstanding last week’s lecture on the first image theories of conflict, conflicts can arise and escalate because of the decision making process itself. We focused last week on how domestic politics affect foreign policy behavior; today we examine how governmental decision-making processes can lead to war.
Required readings:
- Geller, Daniel S., and J. David Singer. 1998. Nations at War: A Scientific Study of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 31-45 (Chapter 2).
- Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1980. The War Trap. New Haven: Yale University Press. Pages 1-49.
- Levy, Jack S. 1992. “An Introduction to Prospect Theory” AND “Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems.” Political Psychology 13(2): 171-186; 283-310.
- Allison, Graham T. 1989 [1971]. “The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis.” In Robert O. Matthews, Arthur G. Rubinoff and Janice Gross Stein, eds., International Conflict and Conflict Management 2nd edition. Scarborough (ON): Prentice-Hall (Pages 215-229).
Suggested readings:
- Brecher, Michael. 1977. "Toward a Theory of International Crisis Behavior." International Studies Quarterly 21: 39-74.
- Herek, Gregory M., Irving L. Janis and Paul Huth. 1987. “Decision Making During International Crisis: Is Quality of Process Related to Outcome?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 31(2): 203-226.
- Leng, Russell J. 1993. Interstate Crisis Behavior, 1816-1980: Realism Versus Reciprocity. New York: Cambridge University Press.
1 November
Lecture 6: “Classical and systemic theories of war I.”
The field of international relations really took off after WWII, with the classic works of people such as Hans Morgenthau, Quincy Wright and Karl Deutsch. We will examine theories of balance-of-power and alliance politics.
Required readings:
- Geller, Daniel S., and J. David Singer. 1998. Nations at War: A Scientific Study of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 113-139 (Chapter 6).
- Mogenthau, Hans J., and Kenneth W. Thompson. 1985. Politics Among Nations 6th edition. New York: McGraw-Hill. Pages 187-217.
- Organski, A.F.K.. 1958. World Politics. New York: Alfred Knopf. P. 338-376.
- Wayman, Frank Whelon. 1992. “Bipolarity and War: The Role of Capability Concentration and Alliance Patterns among Major Powers, 1816-1965.” In John A. Vasquez and Marie T. Henehan, eds., The Scientific Study of Peace and War. New York: Lexington. Pages 177-203.
Suggested readings:
- James, Patrick. 1995. “Structural Realism and the Causes of War.” Mershon International Studies Review 39(2): 181-208.
- Bremer, Stuart A. 1980. "National Capabilities and War Proneness." In The Correlates of War: II, ed. J. David Singer. New York: Free Press.
- Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
8 November
Lecture 7: “Classical and systemic theories of war II.”
Here we examine some of the findings of the Correlates of War (COW) project, especially pertaining to “dangerous dyads” and arms races.
Required readings:
- Geller, Daniel S., and J. David Singer. 1998. Nations at War: A Scientific Study of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 68-112 (Chapter 5).
- Bremer, Stuart A. 1992. “Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965. Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(2): 309-341.
Suggested readings:
- Gochman, Charles S. and Zeev Maoz. 1984. "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976." Journal of Conflict Resolution 28: 585-615.
- Sabrosky, Alan Ned (ed.) 1985. Polarity and war: the changing structure of international conflict. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
- Huth, Paul. 1988. Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. New Haven: Yale University Press.
15 November
Lecture 8: “Ethnic conflict.”
It is conventional wisdom that the end of the cold war has brought an increase in intrastate conflicts, particularly in states with multiple cleavages—among which we tend to find ethnicity. We examine why some ethnic groups to take up arms and the factors that cause some ethnic differences to erupt into full-blown wars.
Required readings:
- Stack, John F. Jr. 1997. “The Ethnic Challenge to International Relations Theory.” In Carment, David, and Patrick James (eds.), Wars in the midst of peace: the international politics of ethnic conflict. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. (Pages 11-25.)
- Davis, David R., Keith Jaggers and Will H. Moore. 1997. “Ethnicity, Minorities and International Conflict.” In Carment, David, and Patrick James (eds.), Wars in the midst of peace: the international politics of ethnic conflict. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. (Pages 148-163.)
- Carment, David, and Patrick James. 1999. “Escalation of Ethnic Conflict: A Survey and Assessment.” Online document also available at: http://www.carleton.ca/~dcarment/home.html
- Gurr, Ted Robert et. al. Minorities at Risk Project (University of Maryland). Online: http://www.bsos.umd.edu/cidcm/mar/. You must register (it’s free), then download and read the Codebook. Some of T.R. Gurr’s publications are downloadable from the Web site and you are encouraged to do so.
Suggested readings:
- Horowitz, Donald L. 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press.
- Carment, David. 1993. "The International Dimensions of Ethnic Conflict: Concepts, Indicators and Theory." Journal of Peace Research 30: 137-150.
22 November
Lecture 9: “War termination and consequences of war.”
Some studies have shown that there are important after-effects of interstate war, such as the formations of new states, the overthrow of regimes and the restructuring of the state itself.
Required readings:
- Organski, A.F.K., and Kugler, Jacek. 1980. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Pages 104-146.
- Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller. 1992. “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis.” American Political Science Review 86(3): 638-646.
- Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Randolph M. Siverson. 1993. “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Analysis.” Paper presented to the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Sep. 1993.
Suggested readings:
- Rasler, Karen A. and William R. Thompson. 1984. “War Making and State Making: Government Expenditures, Tax Revenues and Global Wars.” American Political Science Review 79(2): 491-507.
- Gourevitch, Peter. 1978. “The Second Image Reversed: International Sources of Domestic Politics.” International Organization 32(4): 881-912.
- Kim, Woosang. 1992. “Power Transitions and Great Power War from Westphalia to Waterloo.” World Politics 45(1): 153-172.
29 November
Lecture 10: “Peacekeeping, peacemaking and human security.”
We will explore the peace research literature and examine the differences between peacekeeping and peace building, as well as the policy literature dealing with the concept of ‘human security.’
Required readings (NOTE: many of the readings from now on will be found on the Web):
- Diehl, Paul. F. 1989. “The Conditions for Success in Peacekeeping Operations.” In Paul F. Diehl, ed., The Politics of International Organizations: Patterns and Insights. Chicago: Dorsey (173-188).
- Hay, Robin. 1999. Peacebuilding During Peace Support Operations: A Survey and Analysis of Recent Missions. Ottawa, Canada: Department of Foreign Affairs. http://www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/peacebuilding/hay-e.asp
- Axworthy, Lloyd (Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister). 1999. Human Security: Safety for People in a Changing World. Ottawa, Canada: Department of Foreign Affairs. Online document: http://www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/foreignp/humansecurity/secur-e.pdf
Suggested readings:
- Boutros Boutros-Ghali. 1995. An Agenda for Peace. New York: United Nations. (Available on the Web at: http://www.un.org/Docs/SG/agpeace.html. A document titled “An Agenda for Peace-Supplement” is also available on the Web at: http://www.un.org/Docs/SG/agsupp.html).
6 December
Lecture 11: “Early warning mechanisms and conflict prevention.”
This lecture deals with the rich literature on conflict prevention. The topics include preventative mediation and confidence-building measures.
Required readings:
- United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations. Lessons Learned Unit. Comprehensive Report on Lessons Learned from United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM), and Comprehensive Report on Lessons Learned from United Nations Transition Authority in Eastern Slavonia (UNTAES). Both documents are available online at : http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/lessons/
- Ampleford, Susan. 2000. “Country Indicators for Foreign Policy: Methodological Review.” Ottawa, Canada: discussion paper prepared for the International Development Research Centre. Available online at: http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/others/MethodsReview.pdf
Suggested readings: - Norman Patterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University (Canada): “Country Indicators for Foreign Policy project.” Online: http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/
13 December
Lecture 12: “What do we know about the causes of international conflict.”
In this wrap-up session, we will examine what it is that we think we know about the causes of international conflicts and how to prevent them. All the semester’s readings will be used to discuss this issue.
Required readings:
- Geller, Daniel S., and J. David Singer. 1998. Nations at War: A Scientific Study of International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 140-195 (Chapters 7, 8 and 9).
- Rioux, Jean-Sébastien. 1998. “A Crisis-Based Evaluation of the Democratic Peace Proposition.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 31 (2): 263-283.
- Kugler, Jacek. 1993. “Political Conflict, War, and Peace.” In Political Science: The State of the Discipline II. Washington, DC: American Political Science Association.
- Vasquez, John A. 1993. The War Puzzle. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pages 292-346. Note: this last section contains the Appendix: “Propositional Summary” that will be useful for discussion.
Suggested readings: ? Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1985. “Towards a Scientific Understanding of International Conflict: A Personal View.” International Studies Quarterly 29(1): 121-136.
- Zinnes, Dina A. 1980. "Three Puzzles in Search of a Researcher: Presidential Address." International Studies Quarterly 24: 315-342.
# # # The End # # #