Week 9

I apologize for missing last week, but lingering effects of the hard drive crash left me unable to do the column. No, the drive didn't crash again. I took the crash as an omen, so I went out and picked up a new hard drive. I spent most of last week bringing data back onto the drive, and I had some trouble installing IE on my new drive. (I suspect that Seagate and Netscape have some kind of secret deal afoot, but I can't confirm this.) But, I'm back and better than ever, now that I've tweaked the predictor a little. NOTE: In this edition, I'll not be giving my early preview of Week 9. Instead I'll analyze the effect my predictions have on the World Bowl race.

But first a look at how the race is shaping up. The Claymores and Monarchs are out of it. The Dragons looked out of it, but they bounced back with that surprise win over the Fire. The Admirals, last week's frontrunners, got blown out by the Galaxy, and are now in second place to the Dragons. As it stands right now, Frankfurt is far from going to the Bowl. They cannot beat the Dragons in a tie-breaker, and their point differential isn't that good, as opposed to the Admirals who have an extremely good one. The Dragons just need to keep on winning, and they're in, the first rematch in WB history is afoot.

So, what does this make the World Bowl picture look like? It all but eliminates the Galaxy. The Admirals are now comfortably in command, with a tie-breaker advantage over the Dragons and a one game lead with two left to play. The Dragons need to win their next two games and the Admirals need to lose their remaining games. This is more likely than it sounds at first listen, because the Dragons are playing the Monarchs, and only the Monarchs, while the Admirals have to contend with the Galaxy and the Claymores.

In order for Frankfurt to go to the Bowl, one of the following scenarios must happen (blowout=victory of more than 14 points): 1) Blowout the Claymores at the Waldstadion and then the Fire at the Rheinstadion, with Amsterdam getting blown out by either the Fire or the Claymores, and the Monarchs beating the Dragons at least once. 2) Blowout either the Claymores or the Fire, with Amsterdam getting blownout by both the Claymores and Fire, and the Dragons losing to the Monarchs not once but twice. In other words, if you're a Galaxy fan, start rooting for the Monarchs with everything you've got.

I debut a new feature with this edition: the top performances for the week. Here they are:

Well, I'm back from a long absence, thanks to a hard drive crash. And, to be honest, I didn't think the Claymores would beat the Dragons.

The Claymores are now at a crossroads. The next 5 games are all crucial. We need to win at least 4 of the 5, especially the 2 against the Galaxy and the rematch against the Admirals, who are currently in the driver's seat for the second slot in the World Bowl, as Rhein looks like a shoo-in.

As you can see from the table, the Claymores have kept their tragic number at 4, though they still have the ability to make it in the Bowl. The Fire are out of reach, but the Galaxy and Admirals are vulnerable. So who should Claymore fans root for? In order: 1) Scotland (of course) 2) Rhein 3) England and 4) Barcelona. The Fire are almost assured of a berth, so they're no concern, but they could beat up on the Galaxy or Admirals. The Monarchs aren't a threat (they never are!) to us, so it's okay to root for them. The Dragons don't have much of a chance, and they could beat the Admirals and Galaxy. Basically, root for whoever the Admirals and Galaxy are playing.

Rhein over Scotland by 3. This one will be closer than our last meeting, but the 'Mores will still lose. Our secondary will probably not turn in an interception for us, again (longing for Coghill....).

Amsterdam over England by 8. This game will see the Ads extend their streak over the Monarchs. Most likely, 5,000 fans will show up (in Monarchs front-office-speak, that's 10,000). The Ads will dominate the Monarchs in the offensive battle, with 250+ yards of offense.
Frankfurt over Barcelona by 2. The Galaxy will solidify their bid for the World Bowl with this big win over the Dragons. Expect the Dragons to dominate in the take-aways/give-aways statistics, but Frankfurt will still have a very good offensive game. The Dragons lose their fourth straight game, tying last year's record.

So what does all this mean for the Claymores. This week is disastrous, with the Galaxy victory. Our tragic number drops to 2, though we still have the tie-breaker advantage, potentially. I'll have an early view of the Galaxy game at Murrayhill, er, Hampden, er, Timbuktu, no, wait a minute, the Claymores have announced that the game will be played in Thule, Greenland! Anyway, expect and early look at Week 8 coming up next week. Now onto the picks for Week 7.

Amsterdam over Frankfurt by 4. The Admirals solidify their bid for the Bowl. This is not good for the Claymores, as we don't have a tiebreaker advantage over the Admirals.

Rhein over Barcelona by 3. The Fire beat the Dragons, in a game with almost no effect on the Claymores.

Scotland over England by 3. This victory, our first since 1996, over the Auld Enemy, will have one good effect: it will eliminate the Monarchs from the World Bowl race, and give us a high coming into three very important games against the Galaxy and Admirals. We'll leave with a tragic number of 2, against the Ads, which is not altogether bad, especially if we win our last three.

BTW, check out my website, Stato's Football Predictions. It's got the latest PIFL picks (the alternative to Arena Football). While you're there, check out my fantasy football team, the 1-3 Amsterdam Admirals. Bye!

Week 2 was certainly better than Week 1. For the first time ever, I think, I nailed the Claymores' game. Of course, it was a loss, which is definitely not good. The 'Mores are now 0-2, and, regrettably, I see no improvement on the horizon.

At left, I debut a new feature: World Bowl Watch. It basically takes the two teams that are atop the standings right now and simulates the World Bowl. In addition, it reports what the current tragic numbers are for the teams in the league, or the sum of their losses and the 2nd place team's wins that mathematically eliminate them from the championship.

Barcelona over Amsterdam by 8. The Admirals, fresh from embarrassing the Claymores, look to go 2-1, but they'll ultimately fail. Jack Bicknell has another fast start to the season, though the Dragons will still face problems on the offensive side of the ball, getting less than 200 yards of offense. The Ad's, meanwhile, will continue the offensive assault, garnering 300+ yards, 200 to 250 of which will come from Kurt Warner's arm.

Rhein over Scotland by 18. For the second straight year, the Claymores' home opener won't even be close. This time, the Claymores, despite moving the ball well against the Fire, will fall, again from fumbles. Ballard, though will have a decent game, throwing for 200-plus yards and only 1 interception.

So what does this do to the picture? It doesn't change much, other than Frankfurt and Amsterdam trading places on the standings. This drops the Claymores' tragic number to 5, which is not the best situation for the team. At this rate, we can reasonably expect the Claymores to be eliminated around Week 8.

Now, I'm going to make my picks for the Week 4 games. Claymores fans are not going to like this, either. I should also note that these picks require my above picks being exactly right, but they're the closest you can get to picks for Week 4, as I'll be away for the whole week.

Amsterdam over Frankfurt by 1. This will be a tight game at the ArenA. The Admirals and the Galaxy give themselves a reasonable shot of going to World Bowl '98, the Galaxy having a better chance, because they haven't lost to the Fire yet.

England over Scotland by 17. The third straight Claymore game where the form isn't all that impressive. The Auld Enemy will extend the streak to 3 games over the Claymores. The Claymores' tragic number drops even further, to 4. At this rate, Claymore oblivion will occur somewhere around Week 7.

Week 2

Week 1