Randolph's Random Picks


Super Bowl XL

Pittsburgh vs. Seattle

When they run

Pittsburgh: The run game was virtually grounded to a halt in the AFC Championship. They gained 90 yards while averaging 2.7 yards per carry. Neither running backs, Willie Parker nor Jerome Bettis, were able to break loose. If there was a game to feature Bettis, this Super Bowl is the game. Besides homecoming amping up "the Bus," the Steelers will be running against a defense with a small front seven. Only two lineman are at least 300 pounds and the linebackers are in the 230 range.
Seattle: The MVP played like one. RB Shawn Alexander exploited holes and made big gains on cutbacks. He finished with 132 yards and two touchdowns. The unsung heroes, the offensive line and fullback Mack Strong, made solid blocks all afternoon long. They will be challenged trying to get their hands on a aggressive 3-4 defense.  Using the defense's aggression against them by running a few draw plays could yield big plays if called at the right time.

When they pass

Pittsburgh: Has quarterback Ben Roethlisberger grown up fast or what? He was near perfect with a 21-for-29 day for 275 yards and two touchdowns. Most impressive is Roethlisberger didn't play favorites, making receiver Cedric Wilson his primary receiver for the day, connecting five times for 92 yards and a score. No picks were thrown, though two passes nearly were intercepted on the opening offensive drive. The first would had been returned for a Denver score if corner back Champ Bailey caught the ball. The Steelers came out throwing and established 24-3 lead by halftime. If Pittsburgh must get into a shootout, they do have a gunman to be confident in.
Seattle: Once again QB Matt Hasselbeck sizzled for Seattle, passing for 219 yards and two scores on 20-for-28. He found tight end Jerramy Stephens early but gravitated towards wide out Darrell Jackson later in the game. They evenly split 12 receptions and two touchdowns. Stephens has a major size advantage on both Pittsburgh safteys and could be featured again. The big surprise was bringing in Seneca Wallace in at receiver for a play and throwing to him for a 28-yard completion. Remember, Wallace is the back-up quarterback. If he makes another cameo, Wallace could run an option play.

Defending the run

Pittsburgh: What was surprising was watching Denver RB Mike Anderson bulldozing his way for lots of yards after contact. He consistently broke tackles and carried Steelers defenders your additional yards. The speedier aspect of Denver's rushing attack, Tatum Bell, averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Pittsburgh came with a variety of blitzes, but were more for disrrupting the passing game. More than likely they were concerned with holding the big lead so the focus was to stop big plays in the passing game. If the Steelers make defending the run secondary, they could get trampled by the best O-line they faced all playoffs.
Seattle: The Seahawks were spared the best from Carolina with RB DeShawn Foster out and his replacement, Nick Goings, knocked out of the game after just five carries. Give credit to linebacker Lofa Tatupu, who continued playing through a mild concussion. Jumping out to a 17-0 lead early in the second quarter took Carolina out of their run first game plan, leading to just a dozen rushing attempts. That won't be the case Sunday. They can't match Pittsburgh pound-for-pound so they need to use quickness and penetrate.

Defending the pass

Pittsburgh: The blitz didn't get many sacks, but were disrruptive in the pocket. LB Joey Porter had a sack and forced a fumble. He was out-done by D-lineman Brett Keisel, a rotational player. He finished with two sacks and a forced fumble. Coverage was tight, coming away with two interceptions as well. Three turnovers were converted into touchdowns. Penetrating Seattle's O-line might be their biggest challenge yet. Polamalu will have his hands full if he must cover TE Stephens.
Seattle: Well the Seahawks proved they could cover one guy. They used a combination of double, triple, and sometimes quadruple-teams to prevent Carolina WR Steve Smith from having an impact. Turning all attention towards Smith led to big receptions by WR Drew Carter. He got behind the coverage for receptions of 41 and 47 yards and a score. The secondary will be stretched out as Pittsburgh will employ three and four-receiver sets. It could be the most important game for the front seven that led the league in sacks in the regular season.

Special Teams

Pittsburgh: Punter Chris Gardocki dropped two punts inside the 20 and coverage must orce Seattle's prolific offense into long drives. Kickoff coverage gave up a 47-yard return. Fortunately the D picked off the ensuing pass. Short fields could be killers. Antwaan Randle El will get chances for a game-changing play on punt returns.
Seattle: If they give up a big return in the kickoff or punt return like they did in the NFC Championship, it could be a back-breaker. Kicker Josh Brown missed a 49-yard field goal to end the first half. Any misses indoors is inexcusable. They switched punt returners to Peter Warrick. If he comes through, that would be major help.

Pittsburgh Keys to the Game

Front Running: Jumping out to big first half leads has worked in the playoffs so far. Get on the board first, add to it, and make their offense one-dimensional.
Don't See Red: Seattle had the best red zone offense in the league. They scored a TD 70 percent of the time when they got within 20 yards of the goal line. Don't let them get close.
Drop Something?: Bettis fumbled. Parker fumbled. Is Vernon Haynes next? And Roethlisberger nearly was picked twice. Don't turn the ball over.

Seattle Keys to the Game

It's Still Seven: The offense had problems with Dallas's 3-4 defense. Pittsburgh's unit is more aggressive. It don't matter who it is, block every single defender.
Can You do Better?: Turn the tables by getting ahead of Pittsburgh. Then see if they can match you point for point.
Game of Inches: The defense and special teams have given up more big plays than they should. Don't give up yards in chunks and force long drives.

The Pick: I don't buy the argument that Seattle built their record against lesser NFC teams. But they didn't play the best of the AFC either. That would be Pittsburgh, and they will prove to be best in the league. Steelers 27 Seahawks 17.

Weekly Record:
Playoffs Record: 7-3
Overall Record:
156-110

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