Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - L
When they run: He might had worn a different disguise from week to week, but everyone knows who Clinton Portis is and what he can do. He added muscle to better handle inside running and he carried Washington with 1,516 yards and eleven scores. Fullback Rock Cartwright averaged 7.4 yards on his 27 carries...RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams had to go into the shop for a few weeks, but he's out of the garage and running on all cylinders. Williams is a breakaway threat, which adds to his effectiveness. TB doesn't lose much when Williams goes to the sideline. Michael Pittman held his own, averaging 6.2 per carry.
When they pass: QB Mark Brunell just has to take care of the ball. The 'Skins threw for just 3,329 yards, 21st in the league. His targets are dangerous. WR Santana Moss had nearly 1,500 yards and H-back Chris Cooley finished second in both receptions and yards. And if the defense isn't paying attention, Mike Sellers scored on seven of his 12 receptions...The Bucs will take the field without Michael Clayton. As a rookie, he led Tampa Bay with 1,193 yards and seven TDs. He's taken a back seat to Joey Galloway (1,287 yds 10 TDs) but without Clayton, Galloway might see a lot of double-teams. This could be an opportunity for tight end Alex Smith to shine. He was second on the team in receptions with 41.
Defending the run: It's a weakness for an otherwise stout defense. Some players enjoyed huge days against a Redskins defense that allowed 4.1 yards per carry: New York Giants' Tiki Barber busted out for 206 yards and San Diego's LaDanian Tomlinson pounded away for 184 yards. These teams played head-to-head, but Washington didn't have to defend Williams...TB now has two tackling machines in linebackers Shelton Quarles (129) and Derrick Brooks (125). Opponents crept at a 3.5 yards per carry pace but gave up over 180 on the ground when the Redskins came to town. 144 of those yards belonged to Portis, who averaged 6.3 yards per carry that afternoon.
Defending the pass: Washington defends the pass with solid coverage. They don't have many sacks (35) or interceptions (16) and are just +1 in turnover margin. Linebacker Lemar Marshall leads the team in interceptions with four. Corner Shawn Springs is questionable...One of the best corners in the game plays for the Buccaneers. Ronde Barber led the team with five picks. Opposite of him is Brian Kelly, who held his own with four interceptions. The pass rush is provided almost exclusively by one man: DE Simeon Rice. He had 14 of the team's 36 sacks.
Special teams: Ladell Betts and Antonio Brown each had a kickoff return for a TD. John Hall is back from injury. He missed just twice all year. If the 'Skins have to play field position, punter Derrick Frost won't give them much help with is 40.4 average...Tampa Bay tried eight different kickoff returners and managed just 19.5 per return. Kicker Matt Bryant connected on 21 of his 25 field goal attempts. Punter Josh Bidwell had a robust 45.6 punt average, but coverage allowed 9.5 yards per punt return.
The Pick: Don't expect another shootout. They'll be ready for each other. But Washington won't be ready for Carnell Williams. Cadillac will be the difference in the Buccaneers win.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots - W
When they run: If healthy, RB Fred Taylor will get the majority of the carries. If he doesn't play, the Jags won't change their philosophy. They'll let Greg Jones, LaBrandon Toefield, and Alvin Pearman share the responsibility. And if QB David Garrard plays, he's a threat to run as well. The average isn't great, but Jacksonville pounded away all season with 502 attempts...RB Corey Dillon missed six starts in 2005. When healthy, he can wear down defenses as he propels New England's ground attack. Without him, the Pats had to turn to fullback Patrick Pass as well as sign a few free agents: Amos Zereoue, Mike Cloud, Heath Evans. Only Evans remains, though he might not see any action. Kevin Faulk will because his elusive style complements the tough running of the other backs.
When they pass: The only difference between QBs is where they throw from. Brian Leftwich will stand and deliver from the pocket. With Garrard, they'll sometimes roll him out of the pocket. Both will throw to the same targets. Jimmy Smith was the leader in yards but Ernest Wilford is the deep threat thanks to his size and leaping ability. Can you say fade in goal situations?...Due to injuries to the backfield, quarterback Tom Brady was pressed to throw more often. That was a struggle as well with some of his favorite targets sidelined. Through it all, Brady threw for more than 4,000 yards for the first time and spread the ball to 17 different receivers, 12 catching at least one score. And in goal line situations, if you see LB Mike Vrabel lined up at tight end, someone cover him.
Defending the run: No team has a pair of defensive tackles like the Jaguars have. John Henderson and Marcus Stroud are the best duo in the league. They can clog up the middle or keep blockers off of LBs Mike Peterson (131 tackles) and Daryl Smith (81). Opponents ran for 1,709 yards, but had to earn it, averaging 3.9 per attempt...After the return of LB Tedy Bruschi and DE Richard Seymour, the run D became stingy. The play in recent weeks lifted the run defense from one of the worst in the league to eighth overall. Moving Vrabel inside has helped, though the improved play of NT Vince Wilfork has been a factor as well.
Defending the pass: Corner Rashean Mathis could be considered one of the top corners in the AFC. He earned the accolades with five interceptions this season. He was helped by a fierce pass rush that dropped the quarterback 47 times. DE Reggie Hayward led the team with 8.5, but four other players had at least 5.5 on the season...If the front seven can't get pressure, then the Patriots secondary can be attacked. Ellis Hobbs is arguably the best cover corner on the team, but he's still a rookie. The secondary will be vertically challenged, as no corner on the team is taller than 5-10. LBs Rosevelt Colvin (7) and Willie McGinest (6) are the top sack artists.
Special teams: Kicker Josh Scobee isn't reliable from 40 yards and out. He was a shade over 50 percent from long distances. Punt coverage surrendered a return for a score while allowing 8.1 per return. The best kickoff returner is Derrick Wimbush, averaging 24.5...There won't be any drop kicks. But expect solid kicking by Adam Vinatieri, possibly the best clutch kicker in the league. Punter Josh Miller had a Pro Bowl caliber season. But the return units performed below standard, though Andre Davis could boost production out of returns.
The Pick: Isn't it hilarious how much both teams are playing the respect card? What matters is how much they respect each other. The Patriots will earn a little more respect from the Jaguars as the defending champs hold their ground at home.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants - W
When they run: The lead duties have been handed over to DeShawn Foster and if last week is any indication to the difference he can make to the Panthers ground attack, opponents are in trouble. Unlike Stephen Davis, Foster has breakaway speed, evidenced by his 70-yard touchdown run. Foster finished with 165-yards on 18 carries against Atlanta in the season finale. 'Lina will keep pounding away...New York has a similar mentality, though with Tiki Barber, it's more like slashing. Barber had his best season, running for 1,860 yards while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Barber had three of 200-yard performances so you know he can go the distance. And he's surprisingly strong so defenses better gang up on him. For short yardage, the Giants bring in 6-4 256-pound Brandon Jacobs. He's second on the team with seven rushing scores.
When they pass: QB Jake Delhomme had a good year, but he barely threw it to anybody besides receiver Steve Smith. The diminutive Smith rewarded Delhomme by snagging 103 receptions for 1,563 yards and a dozen TDs. That's almost 40 percent of the completions! Now would be a good time for Delhomme to spread the ball around to TE Kris Mangum and receivers Ricky Proehl and Keary Colbert...In his first full season, Eli Manning put up good passing numbers. Throwing to the likes of Plaxico Burress (76-1,214), Jeremy Shockey (65-891), and Amani Toomer (60-684) can make most QBs look good, but Manning spread the wealth. Those three pass catchers each caught seven touchdowns. The biggest concern will be ball security, as Manning was guilty of 17 interceptions. If he avoids mistakes, the Giants will score in bunches.
Defending the run: For the second year in a row, Carolina had to stop ball carriers without DT Kris Jenkins. He went down in the first game of the season. By the stats, it doesn't seem like the Panthers missed him. Opponents managed 3.6 yards per carry, thanks largely in part to speedy LBs Will Witherspoon (81 tackles) and Dan Morgan (75). Twice they held the top rushing team in the league (Atlanta) in check, allowing 146 combined in two games...Signing linebacker Antonio Pierce as a free agent paid off for the G-men. He might had led the team in tackles if it wasn't for injuries. Talking about injuries, N.Y. is short-handed at the position. Pierce is out and Reggie Torbor is questionable. The Giants aren't stout as they gave up over 100-yards per game on average.
Defending the pass: The Panthers have a luxury few teams in the league have: Two corners good enough to play man-to-man. Chris Gamble and Ken Lucas have 13 interceptions between them. They're also big corners so they can get physical with big wide outs. The secondary gets a huge assist from the pass rush (45 sacks), meaning the front seven could get the back four chances to add to their 23 interceptions total...It's doubtful any corner back is a part of the Giants hands team to recover onside kicks. Between six corners they have two picks, neither of them from starters Will Allen and Corey Webster. The secondary must be thankful that the pass rush has bookends Michael Strahan (11.5 sacks) and Osi Umenyiora (14.5) to harass passers. They get to the quarterback quickly because there won't be many, if any, coverage sacks.
Special teams: Neither Smith nor Gamble returned any punts for scores, but combined they averaged 10.8 yards per return. On the flip side, coverage allowed just 6.5 yards per return. Kicker John Kasay was perfect from 40 yards and closer. Any attempts farther, and he's nine for 17...The potential for fireworks is always present when New York put their special units on the field: Kickoff returns 24.3 average with a touch for New York, 22.0 and a score allowed; Punt returns 9.2 and a TD for N.Y. while 8.6 with one breaking the plane. Kicker Jay Feeley has to prove himself after missing clutch kicks in the regular season.
The Pick: No need to hold your heart, New Yorkers. Your Giants won't have to worry about a game-winning field goal. The Panthers will get ahead and hold off any comeback attempts.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals - W
When they run: Always. To start the game, to end it, first-and-10, third-and-long, fourth-and-one, and especially goal line. For the last scenario, the Steelers turn to RB Jerome Bettis, who has nine TDs. Otherwise, speedy Willie Parker gets the ball. He's the first 1,000-yard rusher not named Bettis since Barry Foster. Parker is strong enough to break tackles but is known for being able to go the distance, an ability Pittsburgh ball carriers lacked for years...Though we didn't hear his name often, Rudi Johnson had a great season rushing the ball. He finished with 1,458 yards (a healthy 4.3 average) and 12 touchdowns. He gained most of his yards the hard way: Between the tackles. If Cincy cares to go outside, they'll pitch it to Chris Perry, who averaged 4.6 yards per carry. The Bengals O-line is underrated.
When they pass: Rarely will quarterback Ben Roethisberger have to win games for the Steelers. One telling stat: When Big Ben threw less than 26 times, Pittsburgh is 6-0. If he attempts more than 26 passes, 1-2. He split the two games he threw exactly 26 times. Hines Ward was a worthy primary target, evidenced by his eleven scores. But rookie tight end Heath Miller is earning Roethisberger's trust. Miller had six TDs...It was a breakout year for Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer. His 3,836 yards was third in the AFC. 32 scores was tops in the league. Double the wide outs at your own risk. Chad Johnson grabs the headlines (97 receptions 1,432 yards, nine TDs) but T.J. Houshmandzadeh is no slouch (78-956-7). Perry has soft hands coming out of the backfield (51 receptions).
Defending the run: It all starts in the middle for the Steelers. NT Casey Hampton clogs most holes within his vicinity, leaving linebackers James Farrior (119 tackles) and Larry Foote (102) to clean up the mess. The safetys, Chris Hope (96) and Troy Polamalu (91) aren't afraid to stick their noses in either. Opponents averaged a paltry 3.4 yards per attempt so expect a long day if the opponent challenges the front seven...See those big offensive numbers put up by the Bengals offense? There's a reason why. They allowed an average of 4.3 yards on the ground for a total of 1,850 yards. MLB Odell Thurman had a good rookie season, but it was a rookie season and he'll make his share of mistakes. It wasn't all his fault as the defensive tackles, John Thornton and Bryan Robinson, failed to hold the point of attack.
Defending the pass: Blitz-burgh continues to bring the heat. Linebacker Joey Porter led the team with 10.5 sacks. Right behind in production was LB Clark Haggans (9). Secondary play was much improved for Pittsburgh, as they started a pair of youngsters at the corners. Ike Taylor and Ricardo Colclough still have lots to learn though. Each one got one pick. The secondary as a whole needs to make more plays (15 interceptions)...Making plays was the name of the game for Cincy. They led the league in interceptions with 31, led by Deltha O'Neal's 10. Thurman proved to be great in coverage with five of his own, good for a tie for second place on the team with CB Tory James. But to nab all those flying pigskins, the Bengals gave up a lot of yards through the air (3,569) and didn't pressure the quarterback very well, finishing with just 28 sacks.
Special teams: Playing at Heinz Field can make a kicker look bad. Jeff Reed was just six-for-eleven from 40 yards or longer. Receiver Antwaan Randle El also returns punts and averaged 10.2 yards per return and brought back two for scores. Quincy Morgan is the most dangerous kickoff returner with a 25.3-yard average...It was a busy year for kicker Shayne Graham and he was effective, connecting on 28-of-32 field goals. Coverage units will be tested. The averages were good, but only seven punts were fair caught. Punter Kyle Larson needs to have a big game.
The Pick: The playoffs are new ground for Cincy. Finishing with the division title was nice, but can they raise their level of play for the playoffs? Not this time around, as the Steelers bring the Bengals back to earth.
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