In The Hidden Game of Baseball (1984), Pete Palmer and John Thorn reported on the results of simulations (run by Pete) which gave the expected future runs scored in an inning for each possible baserunner/out state. Using play-by-play data readily available on the Web, I have updated the Palmer/Thorn data for each baserunner/out state for the 1996 and 1997 seasons. I have also calculated the percentage of the time that 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 or more runs score in each baserunner/out situation.
I am working on methods to use these tables to evaluate the value of offensive strategies. Just because a strategy results in a net decrease in run expectation doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad strategy. It's not enough, as Palmer and Thorn state, to say that a sacrifice bunt is bad because it decreases the run expectation even if successful; if the sacrifice bunt is likely to leave you better off than you would be if the hitter didn't sacrifice (as is the case for about 99 44/100% of all pitchers), you'd rather sacrifice.
Available as of 7/17/98: Complete 1997 data, complete data for the 1996 AL, summary data for the 1996 NL.
7/23/98: partial team data for the 1996 NL.
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