. . . . . . . Doc Welby presents . . . . . . .

HOT STOVE 2008: RED SOX NATION

.:: 'TIS THE IDES O' MARCH ::.

JB - (Newton Center MA, March 3, 2008) Umma hafta scrutinize the rosters a bit more, but here are some early predictions for 2008. The BEERCOMPASS generally knows all, but faltered a bit on the last game of the NFL season. (Had something in my eye...)

I do think the Tigers are better than the Yanks & Sox, at least on paper. The Detroit bats rival the Yankees, their pitching is young but established. The Sox & Yanks both have a lot invested in blue-chip prospects with very little experience. We've been hearing the names for years. Phil Hughes, Joba, Lester, Buckholz. All have had some major league moments, but it almost always takes a year or two, especially in the AL East, to get any kind of consistancy.

The Schilling injury hurts the Sox a bit, not as an ace any longer, but as a battle-tested veteran providing some quality innings.

.:: SANTANA'S MET HIS MATCH! ::.

JB - (Newton Center MA, Sept 30, 2008) Sounds like the Mets got him. Makes their pitching staff look a million times better. Good for the Sox as well. Going to the NL and not the Yanks.

Doc Welby - (Blauvelt NY, Sept 30, 2008) Yes, but we need to do some verification first - Mets went out to get Matsui - got the wrong one. Went out to get Zambrano - again, wound up with the wrong one. So let's hope that we're not listening to "Oye Como Va" at Shea on Opening Day!

JB - (Newton Center MA, Feb 1, 2008) Twins ace southpaw Johan Santana was traded to the Mets for outfielder Carlos Gomez and RHPs Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. Four of the top-10 Met prospects. Then signed for an obscene amount a chedda by the Mets shortly thereafter. Reportedly $150 an hour, or something. And strangely enough, probably justified, as he's been the best pitcher in baseball for the past 5 years. Lifetime he's 93-44 with a 3.22 with the Twins in the American League.

Very similar to a deal Omar Minaya made many years back, when he traded Montreal ace Pedro Martinez to the Red Sox for some top prospects. A deal the cash-poor and ill-fated Expos had to make. The difference being the Twins offered Santana a 4-year $80m deal that he dismissed out of hand. In other words, a bonifide ace pitcher salary. So evidently Santana wanted to move on. And the Mets are a much better bet to win a Championship than the Twins at this point in time. The Sox and Yanks made good offers, but both were reluctant to let their blue-chip prospects go, then pay a record salary to Santana. (Many of us, as fans, felt the same way.) The Mets had no prospects the caliber of Phil Hughes, Jon Lester or Ellsbury, but strength in numbers was perhaps the Twin's thinking. Or the best they could get at this point. Gomez is a potential 5-tool guy, and Guerra & Humber have high ceilings.

Bottom line is: METS ROCK on this one. This is a guy you build a team around, and the a guy the Mets were lacking last year. Puts 'em among the elite. A force to be reckoned with fer sure. As a Met fan, you gots to love this one. They have a nice attack in place, and the decent rotation they had last year becomes potentially formidable with Santana taking Tom Glavine's spot. Pedro, as is his nature, will be pushed to prove he's still #1, and if he stays healthy he can continue to win. Raising a Murphy's Stout to the Sons of Omar!

Mike C - (Palisades NY, Feb 2, 2008) Yeah, but can he play "Black Magic Woman".

Mikey Stew - (Pearl River NY, Feb 3, 2008) I'm betting he can have some black magic on the mound even if he can't play the song. The big question in my mind is for how long. I think one of the reasons the Yanks and Sox decided to pass on this one was the number of innings on the guys arm over the past 4 years. I believe it's over 900. The Yanks and Sox were wise not to give up the prospects the Twinkies were asking for. I'd rather roll the dice with a 21 year old Hughes and a 23 year old Kennedy, two very high ceiling youngsters, than give up half the farm and then have to sign a guy with that many innings on him for 7 years and what amounts to every day player money.

In spite of that, I believe he will pitch great for our crosstown Metsies and elevate them to the postseason. In the N.L., where with the exception of a few teams one of which is the Mets the hitting is almost laughable, he will probably have an E.R.A. of about 0.50 and win 25 games this year.

I think the big question is for how long. I gotta worry that he may burn out after 2-3 more years leaving the Mets with a hurt pitcher and a huge contract. As a Yankee fan I have seen the same thing happen too many times. As John said though, you have to hand it to the Mets. They got a superstar pitcher for what amounts to pocket change prospects. The Twins over played their hand and settled for less. If the Yanks could have gotten him at a lesser cost in prospects as the Mets did it would have been a trade I'd have been in favor of. I did not want the trade if the Yanks would have had to fork over the ridiculous price of Hughes, Kennedy, Cabrera and a kings ransom. I would still have had the breakdown concerns though even if we got him. That Yankee state of mind. Win now regardless of the cost and the hell with later. Luckily that frame of mind seems to be changing a bit.

Oh yeah I forgot something. Is there no end to the Mets spending? :)

JB - (Newton Center MA, Feb 3, 2008) Seems to be the Met solution to everything - throw money around. As we know, you can't buy a Championship. Except for sometimes. Y'all ready for some FOOTBALL?? Got a feeling this one's gonna be a classic. Group 5 is having a pre-game barbeque & jam at the Robinwood Lounge. Maybe I'll attempt 'Black Magic Woman' and dedicate it to the Mets. Even though my mates hate the Mets for some reason...

.:: WHY BASEBALL IS BEST ::.

JB - (Newton Center MA, November 25, 2007) I love baseball. I love the NFL as well, xspecially watching Belicheat's record-smashing Patriots treat the rest of the league like they were the school for the blind. Basketball & hockey... not so much. Soccer - not a real sport.

Baseball's a cut above. Yeah, there's crap like rampant steroid (now HGH) use and stealing signs, phantom calls now and again, but the utter unpredictability of any game, series, or strategy makes the game totally compelling. (As does Sierra Nevada HARVEST Fresh Hop Ale. Just sayin'.)

A few months into 2007, the Sox rolled to a 14-game lead as the Yanks' sore-armed pitching faltered. But the Yankee bats came alive, their arms got healthy, and soon they were back in the hunt. When the trade deadline came round, the Sox signed the one guy that would put the Yankees over the top - Eric Gagne. The potential bridge to Mo Rivera the Yanks hadn't found all year. This looked to be a coup for the Sox, another ace for an already outstanding bullpen.

So the Yanks were forced to dip into the farm. A raw 2006 1st round draftee named Joba Chamberlain got the call, and gave up 1 earned run in 19 games down the stretch. Meanwhile, Gagne blew 3 or 4 saves for the Sox and the Yanks footsteps were gettin' louder. Turn this trade around and the Yanks don't see Joba 'til 2008 or 2009. Turn it around and the Sox bullpen maybe continues on lights out and this is not a race. Goes against all logic.

When the playoff seeds were ironed out, a betting man, Pete Rose perhaps, would have seen that the stars were aligned for the Yankees. They were 6-0 against Cleveland in the regular season, and would face them in the first round. Much better than facing the LA (of Aneheim) Angels, who have had their number in recent memory. The Sox, meanwhile, would deal with LA (of Aneheim), presumably win that series, then get crushed by the Yankees, who dominated them in the second half of the season. This is how I saw it playing out. (Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean someone isn't really following you...)

Well, as fate would have it, Indian aces 'Cy' Sabathia, Carmona, and veteran Paul 'HGH for health' Byrd shut the Bomber bats down. Almost beat Beantown too.

.:: EPILOGUE ::.

"May the best team win." -- Sometimes the best team wins. Maybe more often than not. The Sox & Indians had the best regular-season records (96 wins) so I suppose it happened this year - the NL is simply a cut below these days, probably because of payroll.

"A walk is as good as a hit." -- Maybe not, but way better than a DP! Bill James, the Red Sox and Yankees have shown for many years that OBP is a premium statistic. Wear the starter down and get into the mid-game pitchers - between the starter and the closer are the runts of the litter. (Not sayin' Major League runts ain't good, just that Major League hitters can hit 'em.) On the other side of the track....

"Delay of game." -- Yeah, these games are gettin' frikkin' long, too long to watch in my opinion. The Sox-Yankee rivalry has produced some of the hardest fought games in history. But 5 hour games are ridiculous. I really miss Pedro. That guy stood on the hill and threw the ball. Over the plate. Two hour game.

"Twice in our lifetime?" -- Hafta omit - in mid-2004, of all years, I was finally brought to my knees to say, after another Yankee spankin', what many-a Boston father, grandfather, and great-grandfather hath said afore me: NOT IN OUR LIFETIME. Curse of the Bambino be damned. F@ck you Shaughnessy, Callahan, haters. Anyways, that's the essence of baseball from my eyes. Jeter this year said something like, "We know how to play all 9 innings." And Yogi said it best: "It ain't over 'til it's over."

.:: AL EAST: Yankee Panic?? Or just the usual reload ::.

JB - (Newton Center MA, November 3, 2007) The background here is that the Sox have just completed a sweep of the Colorado Rockies in the World Series, adding a 7th World Championship to their storied history. After an 86 year drought the Sox prevailed in 2004 and 2007. An interestin' dialogue ensued...

JB - (Newton Center MA, Oktober 23, 2007) You know you're all welcome in Red Sox Nation. Let's face it, we may not win the Series, but we're the last Evil Empire standing....

Mikey Stew - (Pearl River NY, Oktober 23, 2007) I'm rootin' for the Sawx JB. Colorado may be able to win 21 of 22 but let's see how they play against an American League team after having a month and a half off.

I can't believe all the crying going on down here about Saint Joe. It's gotten to the point of ridiculous.

Johnny Mudd - (Broad Brook CT, Oktober 24, 2007) Sox in 6......Bet the farm.....I am never wrong about these things !!!!

JB - (Newton Center MA, Oktober 25, 2007) It can't be this easy. Beckett's getting a serious post-season resume though. That guy has been lights out every time he's toed the rubba.....

Mikey Stew - (Pearl River NY, Oktober 25, 2007) They're playing an NL team. They'll probably sweep. This ain't the zonas Colorado is playing here.

Johnny Mudd - (Broad Brook CT, Oktober 26, 2007) When I predicted Sox in 6 I expected Colorado to take at least 1 game of the first 2. Boston pitching looks too good.

JB - (Newton Center MA, Oktober 29, 2007) I guess these ain't yer daddy's Red Sox. The layoff I'm sure hurt the Rockies, but they're really not a deep team - just one that got hot at the right time.

Now I'm beggin' you Yankee fans to make up with A-Rod. 'Cause if he comes to Boston I'm gonna leave.... I know he's a Hall of Famer and all, but it sure seems like wherever he is they don't win. Even with the Mickey Mantle numbers. By the way a bullshit move by Scott Boras announcing it during the Series.

Mikey Stew - (Pearl River NY, Oktober 30, 2007) I got newz for y'all. We don't want him either. The guy is a flat out head case. The timing of the announcement was so typical. A-Rod is all about the look at me attitude. We're gonna sign that free agent from Boston.

JB - (Newton Center MA, Oktober 30, 2007) Lowell is off limits! That guy's been nothing but a pro since he got here. Gets the big hits, Gold Glove-quality 3rd base... He was the 'salary dump' in the Beckett trade. (The Marlins got Hanley Ramirez though who is All-World.)

WEASEL - (Lunenburg MA, Oktober 31, 2007) I, too, think that ARod should not be a Yankee next year. I do feel that he is an incredibly talented player. While he seems to have choked in the postseason once again, I would remind everyone that we would not have come close to the playoffs if it were not for him - especially the early part of the season. He is a Hall of Famer, and will likely eclipse Bonds home run record.

That said, he is too much of an ego to play on this team of many stars. He does take the focus away from other aspects of their game. In addition, the money saved can probably be invested more wisely.

Now.. I have always liked Mike Lowell. However, I think the Sox are going to go all out for him. MVP of the series, and close to an MVP season. Soriano? Hanley Ramirez? Who knows?? His power will be a major loss in the lineup that did not have any others close on his heels. I do not think Giambi will be back, and he is the only one capable of power numbers close to AROD.

Pitching will need to be a focus for the Yanks. I would hold on to Pettitte and Wang (of course). I would forget forever any stupid Roger Clemens idea (like pitching in September for 50 mill). Hughes will be up and coming. If they can re-sign Mo, then Joba may be able to start. If not, they either need to buy a closer (Papelbon?), or Joba is it. There was another youngster who looked good (Ian Kennedy?). One way or the other they may need to hook up with some pitching, or they will be sending Guidry in.

Some key players for next year include Abreu and Matsui, Cano, and of course Jeter. Posada would be great to sign again. I am not convinced that Damon should be gone... he can really stir an offense, and was starting to come back to form at the end of the year. I still like his gutsy play. Like I said, though, they need some homeruns - perhaps a lefty.... Ortiz??? Oh well... the Sox really did a great job this year, and their pitching was too tough to beat. I was glad to see them move along after the Yanks sunk. The Yanks did do a great come from behind thing, but need to either rebuild, or jump strongly off of the starting blocks.

JB - (Newton Center MA, Oktober 31, 2007) I always thought being a Yankee fan was the easiest thing in the world, like rooting for Bill Gates to make $$$. Perhaps I was mistaken. Here's a team that's made the playoffs for 12 years in a row or something, won 94 games last year with a bad start, and they panic and dump the perfect NY manager. Then their all-world 3rd baseman, the highest paid player in the game, bolts for (the possibility of) more money. C'MON PEOPLE! This is an historic run. The Braves are the only team ever to have a run like that - and they only gots one ring to show for it. The playoffs ARE a crapshoot.

What they really need (because they can never play second fiddle to Boston) is a bonafide ace starter. (As do the Mets.) And Johan Santana, 27 & the best pitcher in baseball is in his walk year. The cost will be high - Joba & Hughes, Wang & Hughes, 2 top guys that the Twins won't have to pay for awhile. Not sure I'd make that trade (actually I'm sure I wouldn't) but I'm a big fan of homegrown players, not a CEO of an Evil Empire. (Just play one on TV...) And Phil Hughes may be your future ace. Or Joba. The Yanks are traditionally impatient developing players, and seek the marquee names, so getting Black Magic Santana could very well be in their plans. There are also other teams that might (soul) sacrifice better prospects. Like the Sox (Jon Lester & Clay Buchholz.) But I really hope they don't...

No brainer for the Yanks, a team with no payroll, to resign Rivera, Posada, Pettitte & Abreu. All are still on top of their games. Giambi brings less to the table these days. Girardi is a good choice, a fine manager for the Marlins and 3 rings with the Dynasty. His only problem was dealing with ownership in Florida, and Boss Jr. seems like he could be an A-1 Asshole like his dad 20 years ago....

Anyways, on the Championship front, our goofy Mayor fell down the Fenway stairs with trophy in hand. He tore his knee up but thankfully the trophy was undamaged!

Mikey Stew - (Pearl River NY, November 1, 2007) OK this obviously requires a response other than a quick note.

There is no way I trade Joba and Hughes or Wang and Hughes to get Santana. I would trade Wang, Melky Cabrera and a player to be named type of guy. I think they would take that because they are sure to lose Torii Hunter and where else are you going to find a guy who has won 19 games 2 years in a row. I would then go out and sign Torii Hunter to play center.

As far as impatience goes, it really appears as though a page has been turned here in NY. George is nowhere near as involved. The rumor has it he is suffering from some sort of dementia. Perhaps Alzheimers. Too bad really since I happen to appreciate how he has made the Yanks a brand name again during his ownership. I don't forget what is was like being owned by CBS. Last place every year. Indeed it has become very obvious that his kids are running the show now. Hank Steinie does seem to have a bit of the old man in him. But that is why Cashman was given the reigns a couple of years ago and why they have been concentrating, like the Sawx, on acquiring young stud type pitchers. They will give these kids a solid chance which is what I want them to do as well.

As far as free agents go, you can be sure the Yanks will go all out for Rivera and Posada. in fact, they are already speaking with Rivera and indications are good. Pettitte isn't a free agent. He has an option year at 16mil that is his choice to pick up. He says if he doesn't pick it up it will be because he is retiring. Unlike Clemens, I think you can believe that. I doubt he will leave 16mil on the table though. Abreu has an option year that is the teams choice and I am betting they will pick it up. Hopefully they will only need that position filled for one year. Supposedly they have a kid in the minors named Jose Tabata that is a 5 tool guy who just needs another year or 2 to get to the majors. Of course we'll see how that goes. He is only in A ball right now. We've all heard that story before about kids.

As far as Giambi goes, this is the last year of his contract and we are probably stuck with him. Hopefully he can be a productive DH.

I really haven't thought about third base yet. I'll get back to y'all on that.

Back page today was A-Rod saying he wants to talk. Of course he does. That would immediately drive his price even higher. It would be sweet justice if he can't find anyone to pay him as much as he was already making. The Yanks ain't gonna talk to him. They seem adamant about it. Why should they. He would cost them 30mil before they even started talking since they won't get the Texas money anymore. He was a bargain at 15mil a year but he is overpriced at 25mil a year. No one is worth that. I think he's an idiot anyway. He already has more money than he can spend. If I were him, I would be thinking about legacy and having my name in the Hall beside Ruth, Gehrig and DiMag. 

Yank rotation next year:
Possibility 1
Pettitte
Wang
Hughes
Chamberlain
Kennedy


Possibility 2
Pettitte
Santana
Hughes
Chamberlain
Kennedy

Not sure what we're going to do about Moose. I like our chances. Wait til next year!!!!!

JB - (Newton Center MA, November 1, 2007) I don't think you get Santana for anything less than Joba and/or Hughes and another A1. Fer chrissakes he's the best pitcher in baseball in his prime! But again, I wouldn't do that.

DOC - (Blauvelt NY, November 1, 2007) It will take a whole lot to get Santana. His value's been high since Woodstock.

Mikey Stew - (Pearl River NY, November 1, 2007) So you wouldn't take the starter with the most wins on our staff in each of the last 2 years plus a good centerfielder with a great arm who would replace Hunter? And they both are young and cheap right now. Just like the twinkies like em. I mean Wang is proven where neither of the other guys is really.

No one will offer them 2 front end guys for one even if it is Santana. Get used to it. We got a new way of doing business down here. We keep the young studs. At least I hope we do.

JB - (Newton Center MA, November 3, 2007) Wang is a solid pitcher - a better than average innings guy, a valuable commodity. Don't get me wrong, I think he's good, and like Pettitte, a+ journeyman with excellent run-support. But at 3.74 lifetime and a crappy postseason, he is but a chip for Santana. 'Europa' would offer more.Yo mama too. If I was the Twinkies, I'd sign Santana. But if I was dealing with the Yanks, giving them the foundation of their pitching staff for the next 5 years, it would be Wang, Hughes & Melky. By the by - it's amazing that you Yanks still can't spell "Pettitte". After all these years. 200+ frikkin' wins. Just sayin'...

Mikey Stew - (Pearl River NY, November 4, 2007) By the way, it was in the papers yesterday that A-Rod told the Yanks to bring 350mil to the table just to get the dialogue started. That was before his ill timed opt out. They we're going to offer him a 5 year extension at 150mil. That's why the Yanks told him to F off.

I really hope he can't get more that 20mil a year from anyone. I know that's still a ton of dough but it would serve him right to get 15mil less a year than he thought he could. And best of all it would make Boras look like an idiot.

JB - (Newton Center MA, November 1, 2007) Agreed (or just greed), it'd be great if everyone just said no thanks. But the owners always cave. Just can't help themselves. Perhaps the KC Royals will sign him as owner/shortstop.....And I consider Boras to be part of the reason I'll probably never afford to sit in Fenway Park again.

Hey, the Yanks just offered him arbitration - I know it's so they get the draft pick, but what if he goes for it and gets $40mil on the basis of Clemens' pro-rated contract? It COULD HAPPEN!

Mikey Stew - (Pearl River NY, November 8, 2007) Yup it could happen. Of course that would only happen if he doesn't get what he hoped for from anyone else which would be hilarious. It wouldn't be based on Clemens contract though. Apples and oranges between pitchers and players. Still, it would probably be 30 mil.

JB - (Newton Center MA, November 16, 2007) Guess A-Rod gave the Yanks a little 'hometown discount' (10 years at $270mil) and the Yanks saved face. But when is the 'opt-out'? Anyways, better yous than us. Hall of Famer fer sure. Maybe he can loan Jetes a few $$ for taxes... Why is it always these guys making $20 million a year dodging the taxman? They take mine out of my paycheck before I ever see it. Yeah, I know, taxes are for the little people.

With the Bonds indictment ("It's a witch hunt I tells ya!") I guess the steroid era has come to an end. Not. Rumour floating around Boston has Clemens and 'an unnamed Red Sox player' being outted in the next wave.

JB - (Newton Center MA, November 25, 2007) The Sox meanwhile retained the services of Mike Lowell and Schilling. Essentially the 2007 World Champions are intact, the possible exception being Jacob Ellsbury starting in center ahead of Coco Crisp. This is rarely a good strategy, but one most fans (including myself) love to see. If the young guns develop as advertised, this is a formidable and youthful pitching corps, maybe comparable to the Braves in the 90's. Too early to call though.