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INDEX
***ARMAGEDDON NEWS***
J. Adams
September 27th, 1997
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The sixth angel poured out his bowl on the
great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up
to prepare the way for the kings of the East.
Then I saw three evil spirits that looked like frogs;
they came out of the mouth of the dragon,
out of the mouth of the beast and out of the mouth
of the false prophet. They are spirits of demons
performing miraculous signs, and they go out to
the kings of the whole world, to gather them for
battle on the great day of God Almighty.
"Behold, I come like a thief!
Blessed is he who stays awake and
keeps his clothes with him, so that
he may not go naked and be shamefully exposed."
Then they gathered the kings together
to the place that in Hebrew
is called Armageddon.
16 Revelation 12-16
----------------------------------
In July of 1990, the DJIA closed at 2999.75, i.e., right
at the psychologically important 3000 mark, two days in a
row and then reversed. As stock prices and collective
expectations turned down, Saddam Hussein started to threaten
Kuwait causing oil prices to head sharply higher. Then, in
early-August of that year (when a lunar eclipse was squared
by Mars and Pluto), Iraq invaded Kuwait precipitating a
crisis in the Persian Gulf, a major oil-shock and a collapse
in both stock prices and the prevailing social mood.
Last week, as the DJIA started to reverse once again
from the psychologically important 8000 mark following a
potential "Grand Supercycle" peak in early-August, oil
prices started to rise sharply in response to new Persian
Gulf concerns. In particularly, Iraq has threatened to
retaliate against Turkey in response to a new Turkish
military incursion against Kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq.
(Interestingly, Saddam Hussein is threatening to again
destabilize the Middle East in the wake of an important
lunar eclipse on September 16th and going into a special
astrological configuration just after the Jewish Day of
Atonement on October 11th - the Israeli holiday on which the
Arabs last attacked Israel in 1973- see "Kremlin Astrology"
at- http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/j33.html ).
Given the new emerging military alliance between Iraq,
Iran and Syria (the "three evil spirits" in the above
prophecy?) in opposition to an emerging military alliance
between Turkey and Israel, the current conflict between
Turkey and Kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq could easily
explode into a regional war with international
repercussions. Accordingly, the stage might now be set for
"Saddam's Revenge" against Israel and the West, Russia's
'Last Dash To The South' and the 'Mother of All Battles'-
the Battle of Armageddon...
-------------------------
"The Arab countries should be asking themselves,
'Who will fire the 40th missile against Israel?'"
-Saddam Hussein
(From a speech he gave on the fourth anniversary
of the start of the Gulf War.)
-------------------------
Read about the "Persian Gulf Deception"
and "The Truth" at-
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/content.html
INDEX
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IRAQ
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"Oil prices gain on technicals, Iraq worries"
Friday September 26 5:00 PM EDT
LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuter) - Oil prices surged to their
highest in seven weeks on Friday on technical support in the
futures markets, fresh concerns over Iraqi exports and solid
demand for winter heating oil.
Benchmark Brent blend crude on London's International
Petroleum Exchange closed 43 cents firmer at $19.57 a
barrel, its highest since August 5.
Dealers in London and New York stoked up the market with
fresh buying across a range of crudes and products.
Some were responding to ``buy'' signals derived from chart
analysis of price movements or were simply adverse to
selling futures positions ahead of the weekend when
technical pointers are bullish.
But bullish sentiment also grew on concerns about possible
disruptions of Iraqi oil output amid a dispute over an Iraqi
oil export pipeline to Turkey's Mediterranean coast.
Iraq sent crude prices surging on Thursday as Baghdad said
it might be forced to cut supplies via Turkey's Ceyhan port
under its humanitarian oil exchange with the United Nations.
On Friday, a U.S. State Department official said Iraq's
request for spare parts to maintain pipeline operations and
oil exports under a U.N. ``oil-for-food'' accord was
``unnecessary.''
Dealers also cited a continuing Turkish military move into
northern Iraq to pursue Kurdish guerrillas in defiance of
Baghdad's warnings of possible retaliation.
The offensive, Turkey's second major cross-border raid since
May, has angered Baghdad, which lost control of northern
Iraq to Iraqi Kurd groups after the 1991 Gulf War.
Iraq's oil exports and imports of humanitarian goods must be
approved by a U.N. sanctions committee as part of the
exchange started last December designed to alleviate the
impact on civilians of sanctions imposed on Iraq in 1990.
The Iraqi-Turkish pipeline has been carrying about 600,000
barrels a day (bpd), some two-thirds of Iraqi exports
permitted under the pact.
The remainder is exported via Iraqi terminal Mina al-Bakr in
the Gulf.
Good buying of heating oil in the northeast United States
ahead of winter has been supported by seasonally low
temperatures. Worries over a Norwegian oil industry strike
also continue to lend help to crude values.
Crude oil prices in dollars per barrel:
Sept 26 Sept 25
IPE November Brent $19.57 $19.13
NYMEX November light crude $20.86 $20.34
------------------------------------------------------------
The Washington Post
September 26, 1997, Friday
"Turkey Attacks Kurdish Rebels In Iraqi Territory"
By Kelly Couturier
Turkish warplanes bombed rebel Kurd positions inside Iraq
today in a new cross-border offensive that officials said is
aimed at preventing the rebels from regrouping in camps
along the border.
The offensive, launched earlier this week and reportedly
involving an estimated 8,000 ground troops and 100 tanks and
other armored vehicles, is the latest in a series of Turkish
attacks against Kurdish Workers' Party guerrillas on Iraqi
territory over the past few years.
The latest operation was launched, according to a Foreign
Ministry spokesman, because Kurdish guerrillas who had been
cleared from the area during a large-scale attack last May
and June were trying to reestablish positions along the
mountainous border before the winter sets in. The separatist
guerrillas, who have been waging an armed insurgency in
southeastern Turkey since 1984, have often launched attacks
from bases in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq.
Military spokesmen were unavailable for comment, but the
government-owned Anatolian news agency reported that jets
bombed 15 guerrilla positions near the Iranian and Syrian
borders, where the insurgents reportedly had fled the
Turkish attack last spring. The guerrillas reportedly had
filtered back into the border areas despite efforts to keep
them out by an armed Iraqi Kurdish faction allied with
Ankara, the Kurdistan Democratic Party.
The new Turkish attack reportedly is aimed at cutting off
the rebels' flight toward Iran and Syria. Turkey has barred
journalists from entering northern Iraq since early this
year, making impossible independent confirmation of official
Turkish statements on the offensive.
In recent years Ankara has asserted its right, as a
matter of national security, to enter Kurdish-controlled
northern Iraq in pursuit of the guerrillas. More than 26,000
people have been killed in the 13-year insurgency.
"Turkey has a terrorism problem originating in northern
Iraq, " Foreign Ministry spokesman Sermet Atacanli told
reporters. "We regularly take measures deemed necessary for
our security." He described the latest operation as "routine
and limited."
Baghdad, which has strongly criticized past Turkish
incursions, also protested Ankara's latest move.
"The Republic of Iraq strongly condemns the new Turkish
military aggression which represents a flagrant violation of
Iraq's sovereignty and territorial integrity," an Iraqi
Foreign Ministry spokesman was quoted as saying by the
ruling Baath Party newspaper al-Thawra.
Baghdad has been denied authority over predominantly
Kurdish northern Iraq since a U.S.-led "no-fly" zone was set
up following the 1991 Persian Gulf War to protect the
Kurdish population from the regime of Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein. The enclave has been controlled since then by two
rival Iraqi Kurdish groups, which have clashed
intermittently, at times drawing Baghdad and Tehran into the
conflict.
------------------------------------------------------------
"Turkish troops push on in spite of stern Iraqi warning"
DIYARBAKIR, Turkey (September 26, 1997 3:33 p.m. EDT -
Turkish troops, backed by air power, consolidated their
positions in northern Iraq Friday amid reports of fighting
with Kurdish guerrillas in an operation which has infuriated
Iraq.
Turkey's army chief said his troops would soon pull out of
the mountainous region, once their mission against Kurdistan
Workers Party (PKK) rebels was completed.
"The duration is not certain, but I don't think it will last
long. We will return when the work is done," state-run
Anatolian news agency quoted Chief of General Staff Ismail
Hakki Karadayi as saying.
Around 15,000 troops are taking part in the push against the
PKK, a party of Turkish Kurds which often operates from
northern Iraq in its fight for self-rule in southeast
Turkey.
PKK fighters ambushed Turkish troops on a mountain pass
Thursday, killing eight soldiers, Kurdish broadcaster Med TV
said Friday.
Other Turkish units occupied the Zawite pass between the
Iraqi Kurdish provincial capital of Dahuk and the town of
Amadiyah in the course of their fight against the PKK, said
a spokesman for the Iraqi National Congress, an umbrella
group for opponents of the Iraqi government.
Turkish border officials said Turkish soldiers had entered
Dahuk, and armoured units were guarding mountain passes on
the road between Dahuk and the Iraqi border town of Zakho,
30 miles away.
Anatolian said the bodies of six Turkish soldiers killed in
the operation were flown to the eastern Turkish city of Van
Friday.
Earlier, a military official told Reuters that Turkish
troops had killed 44 PKK rebels for the loss of three
soldiers in the operation up to then.
The offensive, Turkey's second major cross-border raid since
May, has angered Baghdad, which lost control of northern
Iraq to Iraqi Kurd groups after the 1991 Gulf War.
An official Iraqi newspaper called for "suitable
retaliation" against NATO member Turkey. "We shall not
tolerate (this) and we support suitable retaliation to
defend our people in Iraq's Kurdistan and to defend our
boundaries," the al-Iraq newspaper said.
"Our leadership, at the top of which is our symbolic leader
Saddam Hussein, and our armed forces are able to settle the
situation ... and defend our frontiers and national
sovereignty," it said in an editorial titled "Let us
retaliate."
The foray has also been criticized by state radio in Iran,
which borders both Iraq and Turkey. Turkey's relations with
the Arab world have worsened since it announced a military
training pact with Israel in 1996.
A U.S.-led air force based in Turkey protects northern Iraq
Kurds from any Baghdad attack but Ankara fears much of the
area is falling under the control of the PKK.
Britain, a partner in the air force, expressed concern at
the operation Friday.
"Britain understands Turkey's need to fight terrorism but is
concerned that the operation should be as short as possible
and avoids causing civilian casualties," an embassy
spokesman in Ankara said.
Anatolian said Turkish planes had destroyed 10 PKK camps
near the rugged Iraqi-Turkish border, which Turkey has
closed to both Turkish and foreign journalists.
Witnesses in Diyarbakir, the main city in southeastern
Turkey, said four F-16 fighter-bombers took off from the
local airport Friday morning. It was not clear where they
were heading.
Anatolian said the PKK had recently sent 1,000 guerrillas
into northern Iraq from neighboring Syria and Iran in
preparation for attacks on Turkey.
Tehran and Damascus deny frequent Turkish charges that they
support the PKK, which first took up arms in 1984. More than
26,000 people have died in the rebels' 13-year-old campaign.
Anatolian said the Turkish offensive was being carried out
at the request of an Iraqi Kurdish militia, the Kurdistan
Democratic Party (KDP), which has been fighting the PKK for
control of northern Iraq and helped Turkish troops in a
previous cross-border operation in May.
------------------------------------------------------------
Agence France Presse
September 11, 1997 11:09 GMT
"Iraq calls for jihad against Israel,
slams US peace efforts"
Iraq urged Arab states on Thursday to mount a jihad, or
Moslem holy war, against Israel and to reject a US-sponsored
peace process which it says is biased toward the Jewish
state.
"All the signs and historical facts show that the Arabs
have no choice but to pursue the jihad against the (Israeli)
occupier," said Ath-Thawra, organ of the ruling Baath Party.
It said US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's maiden
tour of the Middle East that started in Israel on Wednesday
was aimed solely at "guaranteeing the security of the
(Israeli) aggressor which practises terrorism."
The peace process sponsored by Washington is "totally
partial" toward Israel, it charged, adding that the US
administration would "never accept the slightest pressure on
the Zionist entity."
It slammed "Arab heads of state who think they can settle
matters by negotiating with the enemy."
INDEX
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RUSSIA
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The Russian Information Agency ITAR-TASS
TASS
September 27, 1997, Saturday
"Duma's statement on Turk invasion into Iraqi Kurdistan"
By Ivan Novikov
The Russian State Duma today issued a statement on one
more invasion of the Turkish army into the Kurk Autonomous
District of Iraq.
"Having violated the border of the sovereign state of
Iraq on the night from September 24 to September 25, a
30,000-men-strong contingent of the Turkish army, backed by
the air force and armour, is perpetrating acts of genocide
against the long-suffering Kurd people," the document says.
The Lower House of the Russian Parliament strongly
protests against " Turkey's intention to exploit the
Turkmenian minority factor in the northern part of Iraq with
a view to establishing control over the Kurd Autonomous
District of Iraq" . The State Duma holds that ways to
resolve the Kurd problem should be sought by means of
peaceful talks, and that the use of force as an argument for
settling the conflict should be renounced.
"The State Duma backs the protests of the Iraqi
government against the gross violation by the Turkish
Republic of its territorial integrity and calls on the
United Nations, the Council of Europe, and other
international organisations to take urgent meansures to cut
short this aggression," the statement says.
The State Duma has urged the Turkish government to
immediately stop the military actions on the territory of
the Kurd Autonomous District of Iraq and to pull back its
troops.
------------------------------------------------------------
Agence France Presse
September 26, 1997
"Russia slams Turkey's latest anti-PKK operation in Iraq"
Russia condemned Friday a massive Turkish military
operation in northern Iraq against Kurdish guerrillas,
calling on Ankara to settle the separatist Kurds issue
through peaceful means.
"The Russian side has more than once emphasized the
illegitimacy of such actions infringing on the sovereignty
and territorial integrity of Iraq, " the foreign ministry
said in a statement reported by the Interfax news agency.
"References to the need to eradicate terrorism, which we
condemn resolutely and unconditionally, cannot justify the
obvious violation of the principles and standards of
international law," the ministry said.
Turkish military officials said Friday the army and its
allies had killed at least 44 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)
fighters during four days of operations south of the Turkish
border, an official told the state-run Anatolia news agency.
Up to 20,000 Turkish troops, backed by around 100 tanks
and armoured vehicles, have poured into northern Iraq since
Tuesday in the latest effort to wipe out PKK bases.
The rebel movement has been fighting the Ankara
government for an independent Kurdish state in Turkey's
southeast since 1984. In Turkish territory alone more than
26,000 people have been killed since the conflict started.
INDEX
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IRAN
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Agence France Presse
September 26, 1997
"Iran warns Turkey to end Iraq 'aggression'"
Iran blasted Turkey on Friday for invading Iraq in
pursuit of separatist rebels and demanded an immediate
withdrawal of its forces.
"International borders should be respected. Despite all
the problems with Iraq, we can not have its borders and
independence violated," the chief justice, Ayatollah
Mohammad Yazdi, said in a speech before weekly Moslem
prayers at Tehran University.
"This is an aggression and Turkish forces must definitely
leave Iraq, " he said.
Up to 20,000 Turkish troops, backed by about 100 tanks
and allied with an Iraqi Kurdish group, have poured into
Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq since Tuesday in an effort
to wipe out bases of the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party
(PKK).
The ayatollah also ridiculed the Turkish government for
speaking of improving human rights while "abusing" the
rights of Islamist groups in Turkey.
"The human rights which you speak of mean freedom for
prostitution and other forms of social vice," charged the
influential cleric, a reference to a pledge by Turkish Prime
Minister Mesut Yilmaz to improve human rights in Turkey.
"But you are denying the most basic rights of the huge
Islamist population," Yazdi said. "This military government
has trampled the rights of the Moslem people and denies them
the right to seek religious education," he added.
The Turkish government, backed by the powerful military,
has taken steps to rein in Islamist groups in a bid to
preserve the secular tradition in modern Turkey.
Iran's theocratic leadership is at sharp odds with pro-
secular forces in neighboring Turkey, and the two countries
have had uneasy relations since Iran's 1979 revolution.
Tehran and Ankara are yet to recover from the latest
crisis in diplomatic ties, prompted by a public speech by
Iran's former ambassador in Ankara, where he reportedly
expressed support for efforts to bring Islamic law to
Turkey.
Turkey later asked Iran to recall its ambassador and
another diplomat, prompting Tehran to take the same
measures.
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"Iran launches final stage of military exercises"
Associated Press, 09/27/97 20:27
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Tens of thousands of troops, some
carrying placards reading ``Death to the U.S. Military,''
stood for inspection Saturday as Iran launched the final
stage of its largest military maneuvers, the state-run news
agency reported.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, drove past
rows of troops that stretched for three miles, the Islamic
Republic News Agency said.
The exercises will involve 80 jet fighters, fighter bombers,
cargo aircraft and more than 100 helicopters, the agency
said. More than 200,000 troops have taken part in the
exercises, which began earlier this month, IRNA said. It is
reportedly the largest exercise by any Mideast country.
The United States and Israel have accused Iran of engaging
in a massive rearmament program that includes efforts to
acquire nuclear weapons. Iran has said that its nuclear
program is peaceful.
------------------------------------------------------------
Agence France Presse
September 22, 1997
"Iranian president calls for strong army"
TEHRAN, Sept 22 (AFP) - Iranian President Mohammad
Khatami Monday criticized neighboring Turkey for planning
joint military maneuvers with Iran's archenemies, Israel and
the United States.
"The upcoming maneuvers between Turkey, US and the
Zionist regime are a threat against the region," the
president said in a speech during a military parade marking
the 17th anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq
war.
"The government succumbs to this wretchedness under
American pressure, despite the anger of all Moslem and Arab
countries," he said angrily.
The joint naval exercises are to be held from November 16
to 20 in the eastern Mediterranean, and they fall under a
military accord signed between Turkey and Israel in early
1996.
Several Arab countries, notably Syria, Egypt and Iraq,
said the maneuvers are a threat to the Arab world.
However, Egypt later said it had been reassured by Turkey
that the exercises were limited to search-and-rescue
operations and not directed against a third party.
Meanwhile, Khatami vowed Monday to build a strong army to
foil perceived foreign threats, during his speech in
Tehran's Azadi (Freedom) Square.
"The enemy's will to disrupt the stability of the region
is serious. The threat is serious," he said, referring to
the presence of US and other Western forces in the Gulf. "As
long as there is a threat we must be prepared. As long as we
seek freedom and independence, there will be a threat."
"Our armed forces will always be at the helm of the
Islamic regime. They have to be stong and capable.
"The presence of foreign forces is a threat to regional
stability and the Islamic regime," said Khatami, who stood
in a grandstand flanked by top military officials from the
regular army and the elite Revolutionary Guards.
The president cautioned that Iran "does not seek to
invade any country, but we will also not allow others to
invade our country or interfere in our affairs."
"We are always ready to defend the values of the (1979
Islamic) revolution and our independence," he added.
Units of the army and Revolutionary Guards marched over
flags of Israel and the United States spread on the ground
and past large portraits of the late Iranian leader,
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and his successor, Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, which were placed next to the grandstand.
Helicopters flew overhead dropping flowers, and
parachutists landed on a patch of grass in the middle of the
square.
Slogans against the United States were abundant on the
walls. One read: "America is a symbol of decadence and
unruliness."
Washington accuses Tehran of supporting terrorism and
seeking to build up its military might, and has slapped an
economic embargo against the Islamic republic.
INDEX
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SYRIA
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The Christian Science Monitor
September 24, 1997, Wednesday
"Wild Card in Mideast Peace: Syria"
By Scott Peterson
Damascus puts a new spin on relations with US, Israel - even
Iran and Iraq
Subtle messages have long served as political discourse in
the Middle East, and the complexity of Syria's "dialogue"
with Israel and the United States about the peace process is
no different.
The current peace crisis has displayed the surprisingly wide
range of political cards that Syria can play.
The authoritarian regime of President Hafez al-Assad is
still technically at war with Israel over capture by the
Jewish state in 1967 of the strategic Golan Heights. Return
of that land - now annexed by Israel, and populated by
right-wing Jewish settlers - is an article of faith here.
And Syria has, over the years, been the most strident in its
anti-Israel rhetoric, despite the fact that US-brokered
peace talks made significant progress before Israel broke
them off in February 1996.
So consider these "messages" emerging from this tangled
Mideast drama: After a botched Israeli commando raid in
southern Lebanon earlier this month, guerrillas paraded the
severed head of one Israeli, holding it aloft like a trophy.
Photographs of this "triumph" were printed across the Arab
and Islamic world. But Syria's press did not join in.
And footage of dead and wounded Israelis from a suicide
bombing in Jerusalem on Sept. 4 was the first ever shown on
Syrian television. The attacks were not called "operations,"
in the parlance of the Palestinian Hamas militants who
claimed responsibility, but simply "explosions."
"They the Syriansâ were one step away from expressing
regret," says one Western diplomat here, because of the
negative consequences the bombs would have on the peace
process.
Both examples appeared designed to send a message of peace
and moderation to Israel.
But there are signs that point another way: Just hours after
the Jerusalem bombing, leaders of various hard-line
Palestinian groups that oppose the peace process met in
Damascus, the first time in months that such a meeting was
permitted.
Hamas was congratulated by the others for its "good work"
with the Jerusalem bombings.
The continued presence of these groups keeps Syria on the US
State Department list of "terrorist" states, though no act
of terror is believed to have come from Syria itself for
more than a decade. Several months ago these groups were
warned to keep a low profile, but those orders seem to have
changed.
"These are all cards in the Syrian hands, with which they
manage to give signals but not, at this point, to cause a
rupture," says a Western source here. "They hope the US
makes good on its commitment to bring peace."
Talks with Israel's previous left-wing government foundered
on details of security arrangements that would accompany an
Israeli pullout. But right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu has rejected a full withdrawal from the Golan -
fearing that giving up this "strategic buffer" would
jeopardize Israel's security - along with the US land-for-
peace formula that underpins the peace process.
President Assad said on Friday that Mr. Netanyahu "closes
the doors on all who are concerned with the peace process."
Syria's demands center on United Nations Security Council
resolutions that require full Israeli withdrawal from the
Golan and from southern Lebanon.
Syrian and Western analysts note that Israel's settlement
policies in the Golan also violate the fourth Geneva
Convention, which prohibits building on occupied territory.
Israel counters that Syria does not want peace and is
instead preparing for war. Western military analysts here
discount such a threat.
But Syria has linked any comprehensive peace in southern
Lebanon - the last "hot" front line in the Arab-Israeli
conflict where Iran- and Syria -backed Hizbullah guerrillas
battle occupying Israeli troops - to a Golan deal. Some
30,000 Syrian troops also remain in Lebanon after more than
20 years, making Damascus the recognized power broker in
Lebanon. Without this card in Syrian hands, and in view of
Israel's military superiority, observers note, Israel might
have little reason to give up the Golan at all.
So Syria has lauded the "balanced" words of Secretary of
State Madeleine Albright during her first Mideast trip
earlier this month. Western diplomats say that, in asking
for US pressure on Israel, Assad told her: "We are the most
disciplined follower of US policy of land-for-peaceâ, but
what about you?"
"Syria considers that it is the only true follower of the
American peace initiative," says a Western diplomat. Further
afield, however, Syria is eyeing a new axis between Israel
and Turkey with anxious suspicion. Joint naval exercises -
which will include the US - are to be held in November, just
20 miles off the Syrian coast.
To pressure Turkey for water resources in the past, Syria
has given sanctuary to militant Kurds of the Kurdistan
Workers Party (PKK) who carry out armed attacks inside
Turkey. But the PKK has been largely banished from
Syria proper, and now operates out of Lebanon's Syria -
controlled Bekaa Valley and Iran.
"Syria is doing nothing at all to antagonize Turkey now,"
says a Western diplomat. "They know where the balance of
power lies, and have not moved one soldier to the border."
Seeking to defuse the tension, Turkey has announced the
exercises will only be search and rescue operations. But
Syria sees them as a direct threat and has sought support
outside the Western camp.
Assad - who rarely travels - visited Iran at the end of July
to confer with top leaders of the Islamic republic and
confirm close ties. This week, in a rare sign that Iran and
Syria were in step, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami also
spoke out against the planned joint exercises.
And Syria has begun improving ties with Iraq, an arch-enemy.
A border crossing has been reopened after 17 years, and
Syria has given $ 1 million worth of medicine to Iraqis hit
by United Nations sanctions. Syrians also say they were
shocked to see portraits of Assad and Iraqi strongman Saddam
Hussein hanging side by side at a Damascus international
fair.
Ties with Saudi Arabia have also improved, according to a
Western news report. A key suspect in the bombing of US
servicemen in Saudi Arabia in June 1996 was tracked down in
Lebanon by the Syrians and handed over to Saudi Arabia.
"Everyone is feeling vulnerable, and that is why they want
to get together," says a Syrian analyst.
------------------------------------------------------------
Agence France Presse
September 12, 1997 12:07 GMT
"Syria preparing option of surprise
chemical attack on Israel: report"
Syria has begun preparations for a possible surprise
attack on Israel using missiles armed with chemical
warheads, the Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot reported
Friday.
In a report that coincided with US Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright's scheduled departure from Israel for
Damascus, the newspaper published a Russian satellite photo
purportedly showing an array of SCUD missile launch sites
near the city of Hama.
Edward Howe, an arms expert with the British defense
weekly Jane's, told the newspaper the satellite photo is
proof that Syria has put in place the means to launch a
surprise missile attack on Israel that could involve
"dozens" of chemical warheads.
Israeli military officials in recent months have
expressed mounting concern over Syria's efforts to develop
new forms of chemical weapons, including a lethal kind of
nerve gas.
But a former commander of the Israeli air force, Avihu
Binun, told Israel radio Friday that the Yediot report
"contains nothing new" and that Syria "would not dare fire
missiles at Israel."
Ehud Barak, the leader of the opposition Labor Part and a
former army chief of staff, agreed.
"Syria wouldn't risk a surprise chemical attack against
Israel because they are afraid of the nuclear weapons they
think we hold," he said.
Israel has never publicly admitted having a nuclear
arsenal, but foreign military experts believe the Jewish
state had between 100 and 200 nuclear warheads which could
be placed on the army's Jericho medium and long-range
missiles.
Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations have been on hold since
February 1996.
Albright and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed
ways of renewing the Syrian track of the peace process late
Thursday but neither made any public declarations about
their talks.
The US secretary of state was scheduled to meet Syrian
President Hafez al-Assad late Friday in Damascus.
------------------------------------------------------------
The Washington Times
July 5, 1997, Saturday, Final Edition
"Syrian moves worry Israelis;
Buildup includes troops, missiles"
By Andrew Borowiec
NICOSIA, Cyprus - Concentrations of Syrian troops at
strategic points near Israel are compounding the tension
caused by the paralyzed peace process and the resulting
rioting in Israeli-held parts of the West Bank.
The Syrian moves, reported by Western and Arab
diplomats, are said to be accompanied by an intensified
buildup of Syria's offensive missiles targeting densely
populated areas of Israel.
Talks at solving the dispute between Israel and Syria
have been stalled since February 1996. The election of
conservative Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in
May 1996 seems to have precluded further contacts in the
foreseeable future.
Syria has been demanding unconditional Israeli
withdrawal from the Golan Heights, seized by Israel in 1967
and considered crucial to the Jewish state's defenses.
After the 1973 war in which Syria and Egypt simultaneously
attacked Israel on two distant fronts, Israel returned a
slice of the Golan but kept the area dominating its heavily
populated Galilee valley.
Although Israel maintains definite air and technical
superiority over Syria, the possibility of conflict is taken
seriously.
It was confirmed in a recent statement by Lt. Gen.
Amnon Shahak, Israel's chief of staff, who painted a grim
scenario similar to the surprise Syrian attack over the
Golan Heights in 1973. This time, he indicated, such a
thrust would be accompanied by missile attacks.
"We have a number of sensors and we know that not only
the Syrianâ leaders are talking about the possibility of war
with Israel, " he told Israeli journalists. "What we know is
that they are talking about a surprise attack. "
According to Western reports, Syria has redeployed some
of its elite units closer to the border.
This includes the 14th Special Forces Division now
poised in the foothills of Mount Hermon, and the 51st
Division, moved east of Lebanon's Syrian-controlled Bekaa
Valley. In the Golan Heights, a narrow strip of land partly
held by Israel, Syria has an estimated three to four army
divisions.
Damascus has described the deployment as defensive, and
some diplomats are playing down the possibility of a new
conflict, mainly because the collapse of the Soviet Union
has deprived Syria of its major source of weapons.
Looking for other sources of weapons has turned out to
be costly and difficult. Apparently because of strong U.S.
pressure, Syria has been unable to purchase a highly
sophisticated Tiger fire-control system from South Africa.
Israeli forces have been steadily beefed up by state-of-
the-art U.S. weapons, confirming them as the most modern and
technically superior fighting machine in the region. Some
diplomats say Israel has been receiving more than the
officially earmarked $1.8 billion a year in military
subsidies.
According to a French diplomatic report weighing the
prospect of renewed fighting between Israel and Syria, a
conflict could be triggered if Yasser Arafat resorted to
force or if his Palestinian Authority collapsed and Israel
reoccupied the self-ruled areas.
Such a blueprint apparently exists and recently the
Israelis conducted maneuvers in the West Bank to test its
feasibility.
While the Israeli air force is equipped to maintain
round-the-clock fighting capability in the event of conflict
with Syria, Israel is seriously concerned about Syria's
missile development program.
The Syrian program was heightened, according to some
Israeli reports, by Israel's plans to deploy an anti-missile
system known as Arrow 2, which would cover about 85 percent
of populated areas. But some Western sources say Syria has
been unable to develop effective chemical and
bacteriological weapons.
------------------------------------------------------------
Inter Press Service
September 23, 1997, Tuesday
"TURKEY: NAVAL EXERCISES WITH ISRAEL
HINT AT ENEMIES ELSEWHERE"
By Nadire Mater
Ankara's deepening military relations with Tel Aviv imply
possible future hostilities between Turkey and some of her
Muslim neighbors, a presumption that marks a dramatic shift
in Turkey's regional strategies.
The question is, which nation is regarded as the threat?
Iranian President Mohammed Khatami has rallied the Arab
world against Turkish-Israeli-U.S. joint naval maneuvers
scheduled for mid-November in the Mediterranean.
Coming at a time when Ankara claims it is trying to
normalize relations with Iran, Khatami has been ardent in
his denunciations.
Speaking during yesterday's start to "holy defense week,"
an annual commemoration of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war in
which a million people died, he described the scheduled
maneuvers as a threat against the whole region.
"The joint military exercise by America, Turkey and
Israel," Khatami told gathered dignitaries in Teheran's
Azadi Square, "are threats against the region's security. As
long as there are threats, we must stay prepared. Our armed
forces should stay powerful."
More than 200,000 ground, air, and naval troops are
currently conducting live ammunition exercises in central
Iran, and the Revolutionary Guards are holding war games in
the Gulf. Aircraft are practicing raids to repulse a
hypothetical seaborne invasion.
The U.S.-Israeli-Turkish naval exercises, supposedly
joint practice in humanitarian search-and-rescue naval
operations, run between Nov. 15-25, under the terms of a
military accord signed between Turkey and Israel in 1996.
They have already been postponed once before.
"The government succumbs to this wretchedness under
American pressure," Khatami snapped, "despite the anger of
all Muslim and Arab countries."
However Khatami's comments followed successful talks
between Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem and his Iranian
counterpart, Kemal Harazi, on the appointment of new
ambassadors to Teheran and Ankara. Both withdrew their
ambassadors in February when Ankara accused the Iranian
ambassador of fomenting Islamic radicalism in Turkey.
One specialist in Turkish-Arab relations, Husnu Mahalli,
says Turkey sees a Syrian hand behind the of the protest.
Mahalli, who covered Turkish President Suleyman Demirel's
recent visit to Egypt, said that Demirel had tried to
present the furor over the exercises as a fuss deliberately
fostered by Damascus in order to draw attention away from
Syrian failures in the Middle East peace process.
Mahalli said that this was a self-deceiving line from
Demirel. "Arab countries converge on the view that Syria
adopts a honest stand against Israel, and remain on
Damascus' side," said Mahalli. "They would be ill-inclined
to tolerate Ankara's rapport with Tel Aviv at any time, let
alone when (Israeli Premier) Benjamin Netanyahu's policy is
to undermine the Middle East peace process."
Egypt later said it had been reassured by Turkey that the
exercises were not directed against a third party.
Mahalli, who believes the Turkish military's line that
the naval exercises are humanitarian, thought that Ankara's
aim was to keep Teheran and Damascus apart and to neutralize
Cairo's contribution -- all at the behest of Washington.
"However, these calculations are doomed to fail," he
said. "For they follow in the wake of the kind of U.S.
strategies that have generally proved to be erroneous in the
past."
Annoying Damascus would have a direct result of
increasing Syrian, possibly even Arab, support for the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) insurgents, battling Ankara
security forces in Turkey's southeast since 1984. Other
sources of dispute involve an ambitious irrigation project
fed by the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, a major water
resource for both Turkey and Syria, and a disputed border
claim over the Turkish southern province of Hatay.
"Although the Arab countries are in favor of friendly
relations with Turkey, their attitude might dramatically
change should Turkey increase military and economic
cooperation with Israel," Mahalli warns.
Turkish-Israeli relations went public in 1996 when Ankara
and Tel Aviv signed a military training cooperation
agreement in February 1996, to be followed by a defense
industry deal in August. Israel is currently upgrading 54
Turkish air force F-4 jet fighters as part of a $ 632
million pact.
According to recent Turkish media reports, Israeli
counter-insurgency specialists have also been training
Turkish special police teams in the disputed south east
since 1995.
But Turkish analyst Faik Bulut suspects that Ankara is
playing a longer game and that the real object of Turkish
strategic planning is not Syria, but Iran, and Iran's future
part in the Caucasus and the former Soviet Central Asian
republics.
He also sees a U.S.-led agenda here as well. "Turkish-
Israeli cooperation is part of Washington's long term scheme
to extend NATO (western defense alliance) to the east and
south," Bulut believes.
Political analyst Ergun Balci of the Istanbul daily
Cumhuriyet believes that Ankara has overplayed its hand. He
said that the signing of the 1994 pact with Tel Aviv was
intended to send suitable warning signals to both states.
As a response to Iranian overtures to Islamists in Turkey
and as a warning on Syria's links with the PKK and a
Damascus-Athens military cooperation pact, it was measured.
"Both Damascus and Teheran would have got the message even
if Turkey had held silent on the issue," Balci argues.
"However Turkey has made unnecessarily loud noises about
her cooperation with Israel, consequently leading to a
united Arab-Iranian opposition." With Netanyahu's hardline
policies taking the peace process to the edge, it was time
to indefinitely postpone the joint Turkish-Israeli naval
maneuvers, Balci says.
"But Turkey will now be disinclined to postpone the
maneuvers after Khatami's unexpectedly sharp statement," he
adds.
"Turkey has already parted with her traditional position
towards the Arab-Islam world," Mahalli added. "If Ankara
persists on this new line, and the Arabs are convinced that
it will, the Arab reaction may be sharper than it expects."
------------------------------------------------------------
Inter Press Service
September 18, 1997, Thursday
"TURKEY-SYRIA:
TURKEY-ISRAEL MILITARY ALLIANCE ANGERS ARABS"
By Dilip Hiro
Syrian President Hafez al-Assad flew into Cairo today
for meetings with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and to
make a few points about the threat military links between
Turkey and Israel pose to the Arab world, especially Syria.
Turkish President Suleiman Demirel made his own trek to
Cairo for a meeting with Mubarak on Sept. 16. The issue is
on the agenda of a Sept. 20 Arab League foreign ministers
meeting in the Egyptian capital, which was rocked today by
an attack on a tourist bus that killed at least nine people.
With Arab states already up in arms over the collapsing
Middle East peace process, Demirel argued that scheduled
joint naval exercises between Turkey, Israel, and the United
States in the Eastern Mediterranean in November involved
routine "search and rescue" operations.
Mubarak appeared reassured, at least in public.
"President Demirel told me that they are not aimed against
any Arab country, and we thank him for that," President
Mubarak told reporters.
But Assad was not expected to accept the arguments
Demirel has put forth to defend this unprecedented and open
display of Turkish-Israeli military cooperation.
With Turkey taking up all of its northern border, and
Israel barely 75 kilometers southwest of Damascus, its
capital, Syria has good reason to fear a military alliance
between Turkey and Israel.
The Syrian state daily Ath-Thawra said that "despite the
Turkish justifications, the reality is something else:
military coordination and alliance with the Arabs' enemy
does not necessarily signal good intent."
The basis for Syria's enmity towards Israel is rooted in
general animosity towards the Zionist enterprise to
establish a Jewish state in Arab Palestine, and the
continued occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.
But what lies behind Turkey's animosity towards Syria?
Like Turkey, Syria is a secular state. Aside from Lebanon,
a multi-confessional state, Syria is the only Arab country
which does not have Islam as its official religion. All its
constitution requires is that the republic's president must
be Muslim.
There are two major bones of contention between Turkey
and Syria: Turkish plans to build dams on the Euphrates in
its southeastern region, thus depriving Syria and Iraq of
much-needed water for irrigation; and the alleged
involvement of Syria in training guerrillas of the Kurdistan
Workers Party (PKK) who are locked in an armed struggle
against the Turkish government, trying to win an autonomous
Kurdistan.
Whereas in the case of the Euphrates dam projects
Damascus regards itself to be the aggrieved party, the
tables are turned in the case of militant Turkish Kurds.
With 26,000 Turkish civilian and military lives lost
during the past 13 years of the PKK insurgency, the
government in Ankara, and especially its military
establishment, feels sore about the role of Syria.
It is widely believed that there are PKK training camps
in the Beka'a Valley in eastern Lebanon which are run by the
PKK leader, Abdullah Ocalan. There is a large Syrian army
presence in the region.
Since the population of the northeastern tip of Syria,
adjoining Turkey and Iraq, is largely Kurdish, it is easy
for the Syrian authorities to maintain a steady traffic of
Turkish Kurds, belonging to the PKK, into and out of Syria -
Lebanon.
Many analysts reckon that Assad has acquired the Ocalan
card as a bargaining chip to pressure Ankara to cancel its
Euphrates dam projects, or at least to scale them down, and
thus not deprive Syria of the much-needed water.
Concerning Turkey and Israel, their relationship has a
history dating back to the early years of the Jewish state,
and is heightened by Turkey's keenness to join NATO.
Its members listed Turkey's recognition of Israel as a
prerequisite for admission. As the former imperial power in
the Arab Middle East, Turkey generally held the Arabs in low
esteem. It was only after the economic boom in the Arab
world caused by the quadrupling of petroleum prices in 1973-
74 that Turkey -- and especially its businessmen -- turned
its attentions seriously to this region. At the same time it
lowered its diplomatic ties with Israel to the first
secretary level.
But as the specter of Muslim fundamentalism in the region
rose in the aftermath of the Islamic revolution in Iran in
1979, the regime in Ankara, which was run exclusively by its
generals from 1980 to 1983, began tightening its links with
Israel.
Even afterwards, in 1984, Turkey signed a secret military
cooperation pact with Israel, which included the upgrading
of its U.S.-made F4 Phantom fighters by the Israelis and
joint aerial training.
The pact was strengthened during the 1991 Gulf War when,
struck by the Iraqi ground-to-ground missiles, Israel
insisted on participating in air raids against Iraq launched
from the Turkish air base of Incirlik, albeit under an non-
Israeli insignia.
Interestingly, when Necmettin Erbakan, the leader of the
Islamist Welfare Party, the largest parliamentary group, was
struggling to form a coalition government in early 1996, the
defense sources made public the 1984 secret military
cooperation agreement.
The intention of the senior generals was to present
Erbakan with such an embarrassing fait accompli that he
would cease trying to become the prime minister. He
persisted though, so after Erbakan had succeeded in becoming
prime minister in July 1996, the military leaders came up
with the idea of joint Turkish-Israeli naval exercises to be
conducted in August 1997.
Erbakan opposed the exercises, pointing out the hostile
reaction they had aroused in the Arab countries. But all he
got was a postponement of them.
Unlike his immediate predecessor, Tansu Ciller, who had
reportedly endorsed a plan to destabilize the Assad regime
in Syria, Erbakan tried to mend fences with the Syrian
leader on the basic principle that Turkey should befriend
all Muslim countries, irrespective of the color of their
regimes.
He succeeded in defusing the tension with Damascus, but
did not have enough time to build friendly relations.
Significantly, within three weeks of Erbakan's resignation
as prime minister in mid-June under heavy pressure from the
generals, Israel mounted a public show of its military links
with Turkey.
It sent its military helicopters to Kirrikale, 50
kilometers east of Ankara, to assist in extinguishing a fire
in a munitions plant there, thus demonstrating the degree of
Turkish-Israeli cooperation in the air and naval forces of
the two countries.
Little wonder that Assad and his military planners are
now working to devise contingency plans for a war with
Israel in which Turkey would assist the Jewish state.
That would mean a sea blockade of Syria, and a possible
incursion by Turkey into Kurdish-populated northeastern
Syria, with the ostensible aim of destroying the camps of
insurgent Turkish Kurds there.
And since the Turkish army has repeatedly made forays
into the Kurdish region of north Iraq since 1992 with the
aim of eradicating PKK camps there, an incursion into
northeast Syria can hardly be considered far-fetched.
INDEX
------------------------------------------------------------
SAUDI ARABIA
------------------------------------------------------------
THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC
September 5, 1997 Friday
"SAUDI-SYRIAN PACT MAY TIP MIDEAST BALANCE"
By Thomas L. Friedman
In mid-July, a Saudi Arabian aircraft secretly took off
from Syria for Saudi Arabia, carrying one passenger and
several guards. And therein lies an intriguing tale of
shifting geopolitics in the Middle East.
The passenger, a Saudi Shiite Muslim code-named
"Khassab," was one of five key suspects initially sought by
Saudi Arabia for the June 25, 1996, bombing of the U.S.
Khobar Towers barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, which left
19 Americans dead. Of those five suspects, Jaafar Chueikhat
"committed suicide" in a Syrian prison; Hani Sayegh fled to
Canada and has been turned over to the United States; and
Ahmed Mughassil and Ali Khuri remain at large, suspected of
being in Iran. Khassab was apparently tracked down by the
Syrians in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. Officials familiar with
the inner workings in Syria, which initially resisted
helping the Saudis, say the Syrians simply telephoned the
Saudis one day and told them to send a plane, because they
had "someone" for them. Presto: a key suspect was handed
over.
Pay attention to this newfound Syrian cooperation: The
Syrians' arrest of Khassab followed by just a few weeks a
visit to Syria by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah.
Abdullah has always been the most pro-Syrian of the Saudi
leaders and he had been embarrassed at home by Syria's lack
of cooperation on Khobar. In late June, Abdullah spent a
week in Syria and Lebanon, accompanied by a 172-member
official delegation.
The Saudis have apparently decided to deal with Khobar in
their own, Middle Eastern way. The Saudis seem to feel that
by leaking information from their own investigation that
points to a possible Iranian involvement in Khobar they have
effectively deterred Iran from mounting any more mischief in
Saudi Arabia. The Iranians are on notice that anything that
goes "boom" in Saudi Arabia will now be blamed on them. That
is all the deterrence the Saudis need or want. The last
thing the Saudis desire now is for the United States to
start shooting up Iran, with Saudi Arabia then left to deal
with Iran's wrath. I believe the Saudis don't trust the
United States to handle Iran or Syria, so they are doing it
their own way. Through quiet diplomacy the Saudis are
getting Syria to roll up the anti-Saudi forces in Lebanon,
and they have signaled Iran's new president, Mohammed
Khatami, that they are ready to have good relations with
him, if he reciprocates. If not, the Saudis can always
summon the United States.
The Syrians are using their rapprochement with Saudi
Arabia to help construct a new regional coalition. In the
wake of the U.S.-led victory over Iraq in the Gulf war, a de
facto "American coalition" arose in the Middle East,
comprising Israel, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia,
Qatar, Morocco and Kuwait. This American coalition was going
to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict, forge a new Middle East
economic order and establish a regional system in which the
United States and its friends were predominant. The attack
on U.S. troops at Khobar was an attack by one (or several)
of those parties left out of the U.S. coalition -Iran, Iraq,
Syria, Hezbollah or Islamic Jihad - in order to halt its
momentum.
In many ways, it worked. Those who want to deconstruct
American dominance are now on the rise, energized by the
collapse of the peace process, a new regime in Iran ready to
have better Arab relations and the chilling aftermath of
Khobar. So Syria has patched up ties with Saudi Arabia.
Syria is pressing for a new Arab summit with Iraq included.
Syria has reopened trade and borders with Iraq. And
President Hafez Assad, who rarely travels, recently visited
Iran, where he mediated between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The
Syrian goal is to blunt U.S.-Israeli pressure to make peace
on their terms and to counter a growing Israel- Turkey
alliance.
The symbol of the American coalition has been the annual
Middle East economic summit, held for the past three years,
at which Israelis, Americans and Arabs mix openly and cut
deals in an Arab capital. Syria has been trying to organize
a boycott of this year's economic summit set for Doha,
Qatar, in late November, and as part of the Saudi-Syrian
rapprochement, the Saudis will likely join that boycott. By
coincidence, an Islamic summit is set to be held Dec. 9,
just after Doha, and it will be interesting to see how many
Arab leaders attend that, instead of Doha.
That Islamic summit will be held in Tehran.
------------------------------------------------------------
USA TODAY
September 15, 1997, Monday
"Policy shifts muddle the picture in
Mideast Alliances old and new in question"
By Barbara Slavin
Moderate Arabs welcomed Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright's first foray to the region as a belated sign that
the United States still is concerned about their fate.
But while their leaders stood by her side and applauded
her efforts to breathe life into the Palestinian-Israeli
peace process, U.S. allies in the region continue to hedge
their bets.
It is a truism that when the peace process is in crisis,
moderate Arabs run for cover. But analysts worry about a
long paralysis in peace talks. They also see a cozying up
between Turkey and Israel and new political realities in
Saudi Arabia and Iran as changes that could undercut U.S.
leadership in a vital and volatile region.
"What we are watching is the reassertion of a central
fact," says Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic
and International Studies. "Underneath the new Middle East
is the old Middle East."
Analysts see a number of shifts.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, is trying
to restore civil relations with Iran, longtime adversary of
the United States.
Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah -- increasingly influential
as he prepares to succeed ailing King Fahd -- threatens to
boycott an economic summit with Israel in Qatar in November.
But Abdullah, who has long lobbied for closer Saudi
coordination with other Muslim countries, says he will
attend an Islamic summit in Tehran in December. So will
Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak.
Although they head autocratic governments, the leaders of
Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other Arab nations cannot be
indifferent to popular opinion. Whenever Israel is seen as
blocking Palestinian aspirations, Israel's closest ally, the
United States, is blamed in the Arab world.
A lack of movement in the peace process particularly
compounds U.S. unpopularity in Saudi Arabia. Since the 1991
Gulf War, the Saudi royal family has faced criticism and
terrorism for depending on a non-Muslim country for its
defense.
Saudi diplomatic repositioning now could frustrate
further U.S. efforts to solve the bombing last year of a
U.S. barracks in which 19 Americans died. After pointing the
finger for months at Saudi Shiite Muslims said to have
Iranian backing, Saudi officials have been rounding up
suspects but keeping quiet about it.
Clinton administration officials say Syria arrested and
extradited to Saudi Arabia a key suspect in July, only a few
weeks after Abdullah paid a rare visit to the Syrian
capital, Damascus. But although the Saudis have in custody a
half dozen Shiites, they have not allowed the FBI to
interview them. The Saudis also failed to provide evidence
to corroborate suspicions they initially raised about Hani
al-Sayegh, a Shiite dissident extradited to the United
States from Canada in June. The Justice Department last week
dropped conspiracy charges unrelated to the bombing against
Sayegh after he reneged on a plea bargain. "The Saudis
didn't give them (the FBI) anything," Sayegh's lawyer, Frank
Carter, says.
One reason the Saudis may be reluctant to cooperate is
that they are no longer interested in publicly implicating
Iran. But experts say they will hold the threat of U.S.
retaliation over the Iranians as an inducement to future
good behavior. The Saudis are keen to discover whether
Iran's new president, Mohammed Khatami, will prove a more
congenial neighbor than previous Iranian leaders, who have
tried to export their 1979 Islamic revolution.
The Saudis would like to regain the sort of cooperation
they had with Iran in the 1970s, says Ken Pollack of the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "The Saudis
recognize that their problem is still with (Iraqi leader)
Saddam Hussein. Since the U.S. won't get rid of him, they
need the Iranians to balance Saddam."
Syria, another key player on the Middle Eastern
chessboard, is also striving to maintain good relations with
Iran at the same time that it has opened a border crossing
with Iraq. The Syrians need help to finance upgrades of
Soviet-supplied tanks and fighter planes. President Hafez
Assad, who leaves his own country even less frequently than
senior Saudis, paid a quick visit to Iran last month -- his
first in 17 years -- to insure relations would remain
intact.
Another factor in the emerging Middle Eastern equation is
growing military cooperation between Israel and Muslim, non-
Arab, Turkey. Since last year, the Turks and Israelis have
allowed their air forces to fly in each other's air space.
Israel has also agreed to upgrade Turkish F-4 fighter
planes. In November, the United States, Turkey and Israel
are to hold a joint naval exercise, practicing search-and-
rescue procedures. Although U.S. officials describe the
exercise as nonaggressive, Arab countries are sounding an
alarm.
"Israeli-Turkish cooperation has shaken up the political
dynamics in the area," says Phoebe Marr of the National
Defense University.
The United States remains the world's only superpower and
the defense of last resort for Arabs as well as Israelis.
But if it fails to restore momentum to the peace process, it
can expect a rougher ride.
"We have to reassess our overall position in the region,"
warns former assistant secretary of State Edward Djerejian.
"Things are changing on the ground."
INDEX
------------------------------------------------------------
SYRIA-IRAQ-IRAN ALLIANCE
------------------------------------------------------------
Newsday
September 16, 1997, Tuesday
"ISRAEL IS NOT OUR NO. 1 MIDEAST PROBLEM"
By Adam Garfinkle. Adam Garfinkle, executive editor of The
National Interest, directs the Middle East Council of the
Foreign Policy Research Interest.
MADELEINE ALBRIGHT is on her way home from her first
trip to the Mideast, and everyone - certainly nearly every
journalist in sight - seems to be in deep dudgeon about it.
She didn't manage to save Palestinians and Israelis from
each other and from themselves, she even admits as much
herself. She failed, right?
If by "failed" one means that, in a mere two-day
Levantine stint, Albright was unable to disabuse two weak
and myopic leaderships determined to follow the folly of
their ways, then anyone would have failed. But this is the
wrong question, and it is wrong in two ways.
First, one can't judge an entire policy by a trip, or a
trip by a policy. U.S. Mideast policy has a history and
logic that precedes and transcends Albright and she, in
turn, has been jetting about partly to establish her own
bona fides for later use in the Mideast and elsewhere. The
policy and the trip are not synonyms. The latter has ended
but the former has not, and won't. Concessions that the
sides were unprepared to make while Albright was in the
region, they may be prepared to consider away from the glare
of international press attention and the domestic political
dramas among Israelis and Palestinians that it sharpened. We
shall see.
Second and far more important, it is a mistake to think
that the Israeli-Palestinian spat is the most serious
business at hand in the region as far as American interests
are concerned.
However telegenic it is, and however much many Americans
love to obsess about it, the main dangers to U.S. interests
these days come not from Israeli-Palestinian distempers but
from the general direction of the Persian Gulf - from Iran,
from Iraq, a bit less consequentially from Syria, from the
Kurdish cauldron that spills over the borders of these three
countries as well as Turkey, and from the considerable
internal pressures bearing on several of our crucial Arab
allies, not the least Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
We are speaking here of dangers that include major
conventional warfare, possibly accompanied by the use of
unconventional weapons against civilian targets;
conventional and terror attacks against the 23,000 U.S.
military personnel stationed in the gulf region; continued
state-sponsored terrorism against American and other targets
in the region and beyond; a renewal of major cross-border
warfare in and around Kurdistan, with enormous humanitarian
implications; threats to the flow and moderate price of oil,
with all its implications for the world economy, especially
the world's poorest countries, and assorted mounting
pressures, internal and external, which could put at risk
Washington's relationships with Saudi Arabia and other gulf
Arab skeikdoms.
None of these potential calamities is nearly as
farfetched as U.S. policymakers should wish them to be, and
all of them are of a weight-class far and away above
anything that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could cause.
The simple fact is that Israel is at peace with both Egypt
and Jordan, a time-tested if tense set of "red lines"
obtains between Israel and Syria, and, most important, with
the Cold War over and the Soviet Union out of business,
there is no catalytic link upward to great power rivalry.
If Albright's trip was a failure, it failed because she
and her associates have been worrying excessively about the
wrong things.
It could be so; after all, we have gotten caught several
times unaware from the general direction of the gulf while
perseverating over the minutiae of Arab-Israeli
negotiations, the Iranian revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the
invasion of Kuwait, several major crises over Kurdistan and
more besides. One can only hope that there is a
determination among U.S. policymakers not to let it happen
again.
Is there? We simply do not know. All we seemed to hear
from the traveling press corps was Albright's effort to keep
the planned mid-November Mideast economic summit in Qatar
from falling apart. Compared with the aforementioned items,
this is surely a very small matter. One gets the distinct
sense, too, that it was discussed as much as it was only
because it is Arab-Israeli related. And we should be clear:
Despite much, mostly counterproductive, talk of linkage
between the eastern Mediterranean and the gulf, none of the
truly morbid problems listed above has its main source in
Israeli-Palestinian distempers.
We know very little about what transpired in private over
the truly key U.S. policy questons in Riyadh, Cairo, Amman
and Damascus. For all we know, the right messages got
through where the need was most essential. One reason we
don't know much about it is doubtless the need to keep such
sensitive matters private; but another is the profound
uninterest of the so-called prestige press in anything other
than Arafat and Benjamin Netanyahu.
So while we can't yet judge whether Albright failed,
there is little doubt that most highly paid American and
European news editors - of print and electronic media both -
did.
------------------------------------------------------------
Agence France Presse
August 31, 1997
"First trucks set to cross Iraqi-Syrian border"
The first trucks carrying food imports for Iraq from
Syrian ports are expected within days as workmen race
against the clock to prepare the border crossing, officials
said Sunday.
Saad Khorshid Shawkat, a border official, said a stream
of trucks would start crossing "in the next few days" from
the border post of Al-Walid, which was reopened only in June
after a closure of 15 years.
The official news agency INA, in a report from the border
post some 600 kilometres (300 miles) west of Baghdad, said
work was going on "against the clock" to revive Al-Walid.
The United Nations gave the green light in late August
for sanctions-hit Iraq to use Syria as a transit route for
its humanitarian imports under an "oil-for-food" deal.
Iraq, under UN sanctions since its 1990 invasion of
Kuwait, has three other routes: its Gulf port of Umm Qasr,
Jordan and Turkey. The London-based insurers Lloyd's is to
post monitors at Al-Walid, as it has done at the other
passages.
Trade Minister Mohammad Mehdi Saleh, while on a visit to
Syria, announced Friday that the new route for imports using
Syrian ports on the Mediterranean would be opened soon.
On Sunday, he visited the ports of Tartus and Latakia,
INA reported.
Iraq and Syria, which are ruled by rival wings of the
Baath Party, broke off diplomatic ties in 1980 when Damascus
backed Tehran at the start of the Iran-Iraq war. The border
was closed two years later.
But the two neighbours have renewed economic ties in the
past three months, reopening their border to businessmen and
exchanging trade delegations.
------------------------------------------------------------
Agence France Presse
August 27, 1997
"Syrian trade delegation wraps up visit to Iraq"
A Syrian trade delegation ended a five-day visit here
Wednesday after signing contracts to sell food to Iraq and
agreeing to do more to boost economic ties between the two
former foes.
The 12-strong delegation signed several agreements with
Iraqi import companies on Tuesday for the sale of food
products, mostly vegetables, the daily Al-Jumhuriya said.
Trade Minister Mohammad Mahdi Saleh attended the signing
ceremony and said Iraq wants to "strengthen trade
cooperation with our Syrian brothers."
"The next step will see a broadening of cooperation," he
added.
Mohammad Malki, the head of the Syrian delegation, said
Syrian businessmen were keen to consolidate economic ties
with their neighbour.
The delegation met Saleh and Iraq's ministers of foreign
affairs and oil to discuss ways to boost trade relations, an
Iraqi official spokesman said.
Iraq, under UN economic sanctions since the 1990
invasion of Kuwait, was authorised in December to sell two
billion dollars of oil to finance imports of food and
medical supplies under an "oil for food" accord with the
United Nations.
Syria and Iraq broke off relations in 1980 because of
Damascus's support for Tehran in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq
war. They closed their border two years later.
However, ties have warmed in the past three months after
a Syrian trade delegation travelled to Baghdad to break the
ice, and the border has been reoopened to businessmen.
Earlier this month the United Nations has allowed Iraq to
import goods via the border with Syria.
Iraq is taking part in Syria's International Fair in
Damascus, which opens Thursday, for the first time in 17
years, while Syria is to participate for the first time in
the Babylon cultural festival in Iraq next month.
The influential Babel newspaper, run by President Saddam
Hussein's son Uday, has called for closer Iraqi-Syrian ties
to counter a growing military alliance between Israel and
Turkey.
------------------------------------------------------------
Agence France Presse
August 26, 1997
"Iraq invites Iran to confidence building measures"
A newspaper run by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's
eldest son Uday on Tuesday invited Iran to undertake
confidence-building measures to create a common front
against Israel.
The Babel daily was reacting to a report in the London-
based Arabic newspaper al-Hayat that Iran's Revolutionnary
Guards' commander-in-chief, Mohsen Rezai, had called for an
Iran-Iraq-Syria front against the Jewish state.
"The invitation to a three-party front necessitates
pratical measures to confirm (Iran's) good faith, it is not
conceivable to create a front when our rear is not safe,"
the newspaper said.
Babel said Iran should free the Iraqi prisoners captured
during the 1980-1988 war, hand over Iraqi planes that took
shelter in Iran in the January-February 1991 Gulf war, and
stop the media war.
Iraq says it sent to Iran 115 warplanes and 33 other
aircraft, including five belonging to Iraqi Airways, to save
them from the US-led coalition air strikes. Tehran says only
22 Iraq planes were on its soil, expressing readiness to
hand them over to Iraq on the condition that it is demanded
by the United Nations.
Baghdad also accuses Iran of detaining 20,000 Iraqis
while Tehran says at least 5,000 Iranians were still
emprisoned in Iraq.
Babel stressed the necessity of "an Arab-Islamic front to
stand up against the Zionist danger and US hegemony," saying
Baghdad has already undertaken a first step in this
direction by reallowing Iranians to visit Shiite Moslem holy
places in Iraq starting next month.
In parallel to the Iraqi overture to Iran, Iraq's
relations with Syria have warmed up since May, with economic
delegations exchanging visits and the border reopening last
June for business after a 15-year closure.
Babel on Saturday called for military cooperation between
Baghdad and Damascus to stand up against what it described
as "the Israel- Turkey alliance."
Iraq and Syria, governed by rival branches of the Baath
(resurrection) Arab Socialist Party, severed their
diplomatic ties in 1980.
------------------------------------------------------------
Financial Times (London)
August 25, 1997, Monday
"Syrian moves"
The warming of relations between Iraq and Syria, two
historical Arab foes, is a reminder of the perverse effects
- and dangers - of the breakdown in the Middle East peace
process.
It represents a tactical manoeuvre by President Hafez al-
Assad of Syria, who has been working to strengthen Arab
ranks against Israel's refusal to hand back conquered Arab
land in return for peace. Mr Assad is also concerned by the
alliance developing between Israel and Turkey, seeing it as
a potential threat to Syria's security.
The first signs of a thaw with Iraq came in May with the
visit to Baghdad of a Syrian business delegation eager to
win a slice of Iraq's $ 2bn oil-for-food deal permitted by
United Nations sanctions. The visit was followed by the
opening of borders for business travellers. Last week,
reports emerged of talks aimed at pumping Iraqi oil through
a long-closed pipeline to the Syrian port of Tartous.
Mr Assad's moves to counter Israel's hardline policies
have not stopped at Iraq. He has kept up the pressure on
Israel through Lebanon's Hizbollah movement, which is
fighting to drive Israel out of its occupation zone in south
Lebanon.
He has also played an important part in the recent
improvement in relations between Iran, Syria's strategic
friend, and Saudi Arabia, a key US ally. In this effort Mr
Assad has been helped by two important factors. The first is
rising domestic pressure on Saudi Arabia's King Fahd to
distance himself from US policies. The second is the
surprise May election in Tehran of Mohammed Khatami, a
reformist president.
The US is watching the shifting sands in the Middle East
with increasing concern. Mr Assad was an important partner
in the allied coalition during the Gulf war. Today, his
moves are serving to highlight the limitations of the US
vision of the Middle East, in which Iran and Iraq are
isolated while Israel and its Arab neighbours seek peace and
normal relations.
New US commitments to breathe life into the deadlocked
Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, as proclaimed by Madeleine
Albright, secretary of state, earlier this month, are
essential. And Syria has welcomed them as a step in the
right direction. But closer US attention will also have to
be paid to the Syrian-Israeli peace front.
Mr Assad's price for peace is the return of the Golan
Heights captured by Israel in the 1967 war - a move Benjamin
Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, has so far ruled out.
When Mrs Albright makes her promised trip to the region next
month, she would be wise to include Damascus on her
itinerary and give Mr Assad a hearing.
------------------------------------------------------------
Info-Prod Research (Middle East) Ltd.
MIDDLE EAST NEWS ITEMS
August 4, 1997
"STRATEGIC ALLIANCE WITH IRAN"
The following article was published by Oded Granot in
the Israeli "Ma'ariv" daily on August 3.
Syrian president Hafez Assad hurried to Iran a worried
man last Thursday, and returned a calm one: the strategic
alliance between the two countries will not be harmed by the
change in leadership in Teheran -- in fact it will be
strengthened. The friendship will continue -- as will
Iranian support for Syria in its dispute with Israel. When
Assad is calm, Israel should be watchful. In the last week,
all public statements by Syrian figures, beginning with
Chief of Staff Hikmat Shihabi, and including Assad himself,
have expressed the two-sided nature of the Syrian position,
which on the one hand continues to claim that peace is a
"strategic decision", but at the same time constantly
reiterates the obligation to "free the Golan" by all
possible means, including force. It is true that at this
time Israel has no evidence that Assad has already decided
to abandon the political option, and to focus solely on an
orientation toward war. But his hasty trip to Iran,
accompanied by a huge delegation which included many
military men, is being seen by reliable Arab sources as
intended to ensure that should he decide on a change of
direction --the Iranians will stand solidly behind him --
with weaponry, supplies, money and moral support. Assad
became concerned from the moment that his long time ally in
Teheran, President Hashemi Rafsanjani, gave up his position
to incoming President Mohammed Khatemi. The presentation of
Khatemi in the world press as a "relative moderate",
interested in improving his country's relations with the
Americans, worried Assad and caused him to hurry to Teheran.
He was apparently given there, at the end of last week,
clear reassurances that there would be no change in Iranian
foreign policy, especially towards Israel, which was
described by spiritual leader Ali Khamenai as an "illegal
entity." Khamenai told Assad that the Golan Heights would
not be returned without a confrontation with Israel, and he
promised that Syria would not be left to stand alone. The
Iranians, it should be noted, were less enthusiastic in
promising the Syrian President practical aid in breaking the
opposing military alliance: the Turkey -Israel axis. On his
return to Syria, Assad sent signals to the Americans, to the
effect that if they do not swiftly move to apply pressure on
Israel to return to the negotiating table, the Teheran-
Damascus axis will in the near future become a three-way
alliance, consisting of Syria, Iran and Iraq.
------------------------------------------------------------
The Scotsman
August 15, 1997, Friday
"Distant thunder of small steps taken by outcast nations"
By John Roberts
MOVES by Syria and Iraq to reopen their common border
after a 17-year closure indicate the continuing
fragmentation of the anti-Saddam coalition in the Middle
East and could eventually signal a profound change in the
regional balance of power.
For almost a generation, the politics of the Fertile
Crescent have been bedevilled by the deep personal enmity
between the leaders of the two countries Now it looks as if
they may both be prepared to swallow their pride: though to
what end remains unclear.
So far, the rapprochement is still tentative. Syria,
which sent a force of Russian-built tanks to fight against
Iraq in the Gulf War of 1991, is still confining its actions
to those permitted by the United Nations.
But in the Middle East small steps often resound much
louder than giant leaps. And the first signs of even a low-
key opening of the long-closed border will send tremors down
the spines of officials in several neighbouring countries:
notably Israel and Turkey.
"It looks as Baghdad and Damascus are indeed moving
towards a rapprochement," says Andrew Harris, research
officer at Durham University's international boundary
research unit.
"Perhaps the best recent indicator of this was the
reopening of the border between the two countries on 17
June."
That was the date when Iraq's ambassador to the United
Nations, the formidable Nizar Hamdoun, formally asked the UN
to recognise the border crossing point between Abu al-
Shamaai in Syria and al-Walid in Iraq as an authorised
"inlet of goods" for relief supplies to Iraq under the UN's
oil-for-food-and-medicine agreement with Iraq.
The border was closed in 1980 following the outbreak of
the Iran-Iraq War, in which Syria gave diplomatic and
political backing to Iran.
The crossing point embraces road and rail links and
current talks in Baghdad between the two countries are
almost certainly focused on the use of Syrian land
facilities for shipment of goods via both Lebanese and
Syrian ports.
The reopening of the border might suggest that Iraq is
beginning to emerge from its international isolation.
"So far the opening is limited.
It's just for trade covered under the UN- Iraq oil for
food agreement," notes Mr Harris.
But despite Syria's traditional enmity to Iraq, it means
that Syria would probably be amongst the first countries to
resume normal trade with Iraq once sanctions were lifted.
The rapprochement stems from the mutual fear of
isolation with which both leaders are imbued.
The feeling of isolation has been highlighted by
persistent efforts by the Israeli government and Turkey's
military and secular civilian establishment to develop a
strategic alliance essentially targeted at Syria.
Syria, aware that Israeli planes can now use Turkish
airspace in the north to keep guard on Israel's last
militarily powerful prospective antagonist in the region, is
also well aware of Iraq's persistent fears about the
constant incursions of Turkish troops into northern Iraq.
The development of even an informal alliance between
Damascus and Baghdad is still some way off.
The two countries are ruled by rival elements in what
was supposed to have been a political movement dedicated to
creating a unified Arab, Socialist society: the Ba'ath
Party.
Whenever the two countries have come together to forge a
common "Eastern Front" in the continuing struggle with
Israel, lesser Arab states have been forced to take hard
decisions.
Jordan is particularly vulnerable in this regard.
King Hussein's tireless efforts to persuade an obdurate
Israeli government of the need to take decisive action to
support the peace process, can also be viewed as a desperate
effort to ensure that Jordan does not come under further
pressure from its powerful neighbours.
------------------------------------------------------------
The Independent (London)
August 11, 1997, Monday
"Old enemies reshape Middle East; Robert Fisk in Damascus on
the surprise pact that will link Syria with Iraq and Iran"
By Robert Fisk
While Israel strengthens its military alliance with
Turkey, President Hafez al-Assad has embarked on a
remarkable rapprochement with his old adversary Iraq, re-
opening border posts, exchanging trade delegations and
closing down the anti-Saddam radio station from which Iraqi
dissidents broadcast to Baghdad from Damascus.
Iran, Syria's most important strategic ally in the
Muslim world, has approved of President Assad's decision,
which may reopen the land route between Damascus and Tehran
- at its shortest distance, a mere 300 miles. Already, cars
with Syrian registration plates are circulating in Baghdad,
and at a recent trade fair in the Iraqi capital the
portraits of President Assad and President Saddam Hussein
stood alongside one other.
It is not difficult to understand why President Assad
has chosen to take so extraordinary a step after 17 years of
frozen relations between the warring Baath parties of
Damascus and Baghdad. Syria is deeply concerned not only by
Israel's military co-operation with Turkey but by Turkey's
newly constructed "security zone" inside northern Iraq, an
area of occupation controlled -according to Syrian officials
- by at least 20,000 Turkish troops. Israeli aircraft are
already permitted by Turkey to fly along Syria's northern
border and could conceivably fly over the Turkish "security
zone" to the north-east of Syria.
In another Middle East war, President Assad could thus
face his Israeli enemy on three fronts - to the south, along
Golan and in southern Lebanon; to the north, along his
frontier with Turkey; and on his north-eastern flank with
Iraq. Syria does not even rule out a Turkish military
incursion over the Syrian border - ostensibly to search for
Kurdish guerrillas - in the event of another Syrian-Israeli
war. The re-opening of economic relations with Iraq is thus
a response to the Israeli-Turkish alliance, effectively
opening a Syrian bridgehead eastwards to Iran.
During his recent visit to Tehran, both President Assad
and the new Iranian president, Sayed Mohamed Khatemi, agreed
the territorial integrity of Iraq must be preserved; they
also regarded the Israeli military relationship with Turkey
as a threat to the security of Iran as well as Syria.
In time of war - though neither side have said as much -
Iran may be able to send military materiel to Syria by land,
with the compliance of Baghdad; the shortest land route
between the Syrian-Iraqi frontier at Al-Thanef and the
Iraqi-Iranian control post at Qasr Shirin is only 300 miles.
But President Assad, who is taking care not to break UN
sanctions against Iraq, has refrained from renewing
political relations with Baghdad. There have been no talks
between the two rival Baath parties and no meetings have
been arranged between senior officers in the Syrian and
Iraqi party commands; in other words, Saddam's regime itself
is not receiving any support from Damascus. Syrian
officials stress that humanitarian concern underpins their
efforts to help the Iraqi population to withstand UN
sanctions. Diplomatic contacts were only renewed last year
when a Syrian diplomat in Tehran, Mohamed Khoder, was
instructed to attend a party given by the Iraqi charge
d'affaires in Tehran, Saleh Nouri Sarmad.
Then on 19 May this year, Rateb al-Shellah, the
president of the Syrian chambers of commerce federation, led
an economic delegation to Baghdad, signing contracts worth
an estimated pounds 9.5m. On 13 June it was the turn of
Zuhair Yunis, Mr Shallah's Iraqi opposite number, to head a
37-man delegation to Damascus; Syria promised to provide
Iraq with pounds 628,000 worth of medicine - the first
Syrian trucks carrying medical supplies crossed the border
on 10 July - and reportedly agreed to restore the telephone
lines that had been cut between the two countries for 17
years.
A week later, the portraits of Hafez Assad and Saddam
Hussein were raised next to each other at a Syrian medical
equipment exhibition in Baghdad. Saddam's picture will also
be displayed when the Iraqis are allowed - for the first
time in more than a decade-and-a-half - to open a stand at
the Damascus international trade fair later this month. At
the same time, Saddam Hussein closed down the anti-Assad
Voice of Arab Syria radio station run by Amin Hafez in
Baghdad; a little later, Syria shut the anti- Saddam Voice
of Free Iraq radio in Damascus, whose broadcasts had already
muted their hatred for the Iraqi regime to little more than
music and discussion programmes.
According to the Syrians, their own businessmen
initiated the new trade with Iraq in an effort to relieve
Iraqi poverty. "The Iraqis were discussing their suffering
with some Syrian merchants and asked them 'why is Syria
punishing Iraqis as a people?' - and that is how we came to
send a delegation to Baghdad," Mohamed Salman, the Syrian
minister of information, told The Independent. "Then Dr al-
Shellah headed a group of Syrian merchants on a visit to
Baghdad . . . Following this, Iraq requested the UN to
allow it to open a (road) passage to Syria, like the ones
with Turkey and Jordan. So the commercial deals will be
confined to the rules of the UN security council's decision
- food for oil.
Punishing Iraq was "hurting the Iraqi people more than
their government", Mr Salman said. "But there are no
political relations between Syria and Iraq. Jordan, Turkey,
Iran - even the (Arab) Gulf states - deal with Iraq on only
the economic level. Dealing with Iraq on a popular level is
different from doing so on a political level. I assure you
that, till now sic , there is no formal relationship with
Iraq, " said Mr Salman.
Informal it may be, but a message nonetheless to the
United States as well as Israel that Syria is not going to
remain inactive in the face of political pressure. President
Assad's assertion that Syria will never accept Israel's
refusal to hand back the occupied Syrian Golan Heights - "we
won't give up a single Golani tree," he told the Iranians
last month - has now been augmented by a new relationship in
the Arab world which will link Damascus, Baghdad and Tehran.
INDEX
------------------------------------------------------------
RECENT CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR SERIES
ON THE MIDDLE EAST AND PERSIAN GULF
------------------------------------------------------------
The Christian Science Monitor
August 6, 1997, Wednesday
"US Stakes Out a Sentinel's Role"
SERIES: Peace in the Balance: A new instability threatens
the Middle East. Second of two reports by staff writer
Scott Peterson.
By Scott Peterson
Access to 65 percent of the world's oil reserves keeps
America planted in a sometimes-hostile land
Under bright American security lights, on a sticky Saudi
Arabian night last year, an unmarked tanker truck crawled
slowly past a concrete barrier outside the Khobar Towers
apartment complex.
It backed up to a fence and a double row of concrete
barriers - brushing noisily against a hedge - then two men
jumped from the cab into a white Chevrolet Caprice getaway
car.
The alarm was raised, but minutes later the truck bomb
exploded, killing 19 American servicemen and wounding 400
others. Shredded clothes and mattresses dangled from the
torn edges of the structure. The crater, made by one ton of
explosives, was four times as deep and three times as wide
as the one left by the Oklahoma City bomb.
Warnings of such an attack and anti-American threats had
been received by US forces in Saudi Arabia for months, and
the bombing at a US training center in Riyadh half a year
earlier proved they were serious.
The airmen had long known about the vulnerability of
Building 131. The base newsletter just a week before gave a
reminder that "everyone must wear their dog tags at all
times."
But the hostility in a "friendly" country raises tough
questions: So long after the 1991 Gulf War, why are 20,000
US troops still required for the "security" of the Persian
Gulf? And despite unprecedented military spending since the
war, why can't America's Gulf allies yet protect themselves?
Today the nearly $ 50-billion-a-year US presence - which
Secretary of Defense William Cohen called "a premier example
of power projection" during a June visit - is used to
enforce Washington's policy of "dual containment" against
the two regimes it considers the neighborhood bullies: Iran
and Iraq.
But the root of the problem is oil, America's most crucial
strategic interest in the Middle East. Because it is the
essential lubricant for US and Western economies, access to
the 65 percent of the world's known oil reserves in the Gulf
ranks as the top priority for US strategists, even higher
than close ties with Israel.
"We are in it for as long as needed," says Col. Robert
Pollard, commander of US Army forces in Kuwait, echoing the
Pentagon's oft-stated policy. "We stuck out Europe during
the cold war, we stuck out Korea, and we are committed to
protecting our vital interests here."
For years, American planners dreamed of having their own
military presence in the Gulf. But despite the US-led
victory over Iraq in 1991, fully achieving this aim has
meant walking a political and cultural tightrope.
The US has no formal defense treaties here, so a surprised
Senate delegation was "just aghast" when told during a
January visit that the Pentagon was planning for a 20-to-50-
year Gulf deployment.
Most Gulf leaders concede that their security today depends
upon the US, though American troops are often viewed
suspiciously as Christian "infidels" in the lands of Islam.
For them, any half-century deployment plans will amount to
American imperialism. Before the war, barely 1,000 troops
were in Saudi Arabia. But since then, the buildup has been
aggressive.
"Sovereignty is a very sensitive issue over there," Gen.
Binford Peay, commander of US forces in the Middle East,
recently told the Senate Armed Services Committee. "They
look at any kind of permanent move as being intrusive,
burdensome."
But the alternative is "haunting and daunting" for Gulf
sheikhs, says John Duke Anthony, head of the National
Council on US-Arab Relations. " Iran has three times the
population of Iraq, is almost three times the size, and the
military of each is greater than all the Gulf states
combined."
Egged on by Washington, Gulf states have spent millions on
new high-tech weapons systems in recent years. But they have
been unable to absorb all the hardware and continue to
squabble among themselves, so US forces in the Gulf
compensate for their weakness.
"Saudi had been the heart of Arabian Peninsula defense until
1990," says a senior Western diplomat in Doha. "Saudi was
'the protector,' but the Gulf War showed that the emperor
had no clothes."
After the war, Muslim leaders asked that "atheist" troops
never again be relied upon for defense. Saudi Arabia
promised to be the "pillar" of security and double its troop
strength to 200,000. Neither promise has been kept.
Still, Saudi Arabia has been the largest weapons buyer in
the world for a decade. It created an army from scratch in a
few decades. But missiles sometimes sit in their boxes, even
as more pile up. "The Gulf states are all constrained by the
reality of low manpower and can only assimilate so many
systems," says retired Lt. Gen. John Yeosock, commander of
US, British, and French forces during the Gulf War.
"You don't simply buy a weapons system, put it in the
warehouse, and say you have the capability," he says.
Still, tailoring US involvement has been difficult because
interests, and perceived threats, vary. Kuwait, for example,
is the "front line" against Iraq and worries less about
Iran. It is spending $ 12 billion on an arms program to the
year 2004 - equivalent to just one year of Iraq's 1980s
spending.
"Kuwait is like a bride, encircled by major powers that have
designs on her," says Abdul-Reda Assiri, a political
scientist at Kuwait University. "Baghdad has territorial
ambitions, the Saudis have political ambitions, and Tehran
has ideological ambitions. Thisâ will continue for the next
60 years."
At the other end of the Gulf, however, in the United Arab
Emirates, Iran looms large. In fact, UAE leaders want UN
sanctions lifted so they can do business with Iraq.
In the 19th century, Iraq and Iran were seen as balancing
powers. The current weakening of Iraq may "encourage" Iran
to take advantage of the power vacuum, some say.
US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said in March that
Iraq is now "trapped within a strategic box," though any
lack of US resolve "will allow the scorpion that bit us once
to bite us again." One Arab official in Abu Dhabi, however,
notes that sanctions are hurting the Iraqi people and claims
that "Iraq will continue to be weak for 100 years."
That view is scorned by top American officers, who note that
Iraq has threatened neighbors several times since the Gulf
War.
Part of the problem stems from the Gulf War itself,
according to Anthony Cordesman, a senior fellow at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington.
The effectiveness of coalition bombing in the Gulf War was
"grossly exaggerated" by the US military, he notes in a
recent book on Iraq, so " Iraq remains the leading Gulf
power in many areas of force strength."
To complicate the equation, Iran demands that it play an
important role. "The problem in the Gulf is the perception
that you can buy security," says Javad Zarif, Iran's deputy
foreign minister, in an interview. "You can't. The invasion
of Kuwait showed us that." The result has been a mishmash of
tenuous American agreements: The Air Force is using remote
bases in Saudi Arabia and Turkey to police no-fly zones in
Iraq. Saudi refuses to allow port visits by the US Navy or
to allow "pre-position" bases.
So the Army has pre-positioned enough hardware for an entire
armored brigade in Kuwait and Qatar. US troops rotate
through Kuwait, and strains in US-Saudi relations reportedly
prompted then-Defense Secretary William Perry last year to
call Qatar "the linchpin" in Gulf security. Still, Qatar has
rejected dual containment as unworkable.
The Navy was permitted in 1995 to permanently base the
headquarters of its recreated 5th Fleet in Bahrain. But
tension is high and Arab officials worry that any accident
between the US and Iran could spark a crisis.
In such a case, Qatar's emir said during a June visit to
Washington, as US allies "we are going to suffer in the
Gulf." All of this, an American official explains, because:
"It would be embarrassing to lose Kuwait twice."
It took months to deploy US troops before Desert Storm,
enough time for Iraq to take control of Saudi's eastern oil
fields and to move on Qatar. Today, troops flown from the US
can touch down, draw ammunition, and be on the front line
facing Iraq in six hours.
"What you are seeing here is the future," a senior Western
diplomat says. "Cold-war forces have shrunk, so we must come
up with pre-positioning and work ashore and afloat. You
'deep freeze' forces, keep a low profile, and go underground
to work on the political arrangements and alliances.
"The problem is that too many people think this is NATO, and
that we can do whatever we want," he adds.
Gulf allies also feel pressure from other Arabs, who charge
them with selling out to the West. "Kuwait and Saudi Arabia
are not really independent states. They are like part of
the US," says Iraq's minister of trade, Mahdi Mohammed
Saleh, in Baghdad.
In Damascus, Syria, an academic is also disgusted, because
Saudi Arabia "only buys weapons to be manned by Americans."
Gulf Arabs admit they can do little alone. "We know the
brutal regime in Iraq, and seven years after the invasion we
have done nothing to defend our country," says Mohammed al-
Qadiri, a former Kuwaiti official. "When the Iraqi soccer
team lost an Asia Cup match recently, and Kuwait was
winning, the Iraqis were jubilant. 'We are happy, because
our 19th province has won!' they shouted. You can't imagine
the feel of those words on our people," he says.
------------------------------------------------------------
The Christian Science Monitor
August 6, 1997, Wednesday
"For Oil and Allies, US Offers a $50 Billion Solution"
SERIES: Peace in the Balance: A new instability threatens
the Middle East. Second of two reports.
By Scott Peterson
With a wartime gusto, American military helicopters carry
their assault teams up over the desert horizon of Kuwait.
Engulfed in violent swirls of sand, they disappear as they
land.
US marines, disgorged from the cloud, find themselves 7,000
miles from home, rifles pointed toward Iraq. There is a
giddy sense of deja vu as the 1990-1991 Gulf War rushes
back.
But this time the only "enemy" is a pile of animal bones and
a littering of spent shell casings. It is December, and
these marines are temporarily replacing 5,000 Army troops
here. Capt. Monte DeBel knocks the sand from his goggles and
explains. "We're here for peace in the Middle East, sir," he
says.
That media-friendly line came from his superiors, he adds.
US taxpayers pay nearly $ 50 billion each year for Persian
Gulf deployments, a price tag concerned senators call
"staggering."
But are some 20,000 American troops here really ensuring
"peace?"
It is this heavy US military presence, combined with a large
political presence in the Arab-Israeli peace process, that
makes America appear to some to be the "indispensable"
nation.
But critics charge that US forces now in the Gulf
"containing" Iran and Iraq are also destabilizing allies
such as Saudi Arabia. And they wonder whether
the US - long an ardent supporter of Israel - can be an
"honest broker" between Arabs and the Jewish state.
"For many years, the Middle East made its living on world
conflict," says Shimon Peres, Israel's former prime minister
and architect of the Arab-Israeli peace process. "The window
of opportunity for peaceâ is narrowing, because the last
seven or eight years we've just had one superpower," he
says. "It's not going to last forever."
No one doubts that the US alone is able to project military
power across the Mideast. US commanders led an unprecedented
28-nation coalition with 500,000 Americans during the Gulf
War. They confirm they will fight again if American
interests, oil and allies, are threatened. US reliance on
imported oil has nearly doubled in the last 10 years to 54
percent, the portion from the Gulf soon expected to hit 25
percent.
But frequent US exercises and massive infusions of arms to
autocratic Arab monarchies weaken those allies, analysts
say, by making them dependent on the US and branding them
with its support-Israel-at-all-costs policy.
The American presence has also brought hostility. Already,
troops have been targeted by two bomb attacks in Saudi
Arabia. Extremists warn that such attacks will continue as
long as US soldiers remain in the home of Mecca and Medina,
Islam's holiest shrines.
Shore leave in Bahrain has been cut back because of threats.
Two incidents with drunken sailors in the United Arab
Emirates strained relations. To adhere to Saudi laws
forbidding public practice of Christianity, the Air Force
must disguise chapels as "morale centers."
Among those who warn of "containment fatigue" are Zbigniew
Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft, former national security
advisers, and Richard Murphy of the Council on Foreign
Relations. In Foreign Affairs magazine they called dual
containment of Iraq and Iran "more a slogan than a strategy"
with "a high financial and diplomatic cost."
The erosion of the Gulf alliance was most evident last
September, when President Saddam Hussein ordered troops into
northern Iraq - an area set up as a "safe haven" for Iraq's
Kurds.
President Clinton's decision to launch cruise missiles at
southern Iraq for a violation in the north provoked
widespread anger among Gulf allies who urged caution and was
seen as "amateur hour" by one former US officer. Saudi
Arabia refused to allow attacks from its soil. Only Kuwait
was willing to assist. "American goodwill is being
squandered every day, even as we speak," another senior US
officer says.
In contrast to that tough stand, a full-scale operation deep
into northern Iraq in May by Turkey, a NATO ally that has
military agreements with Israel, brought little US scorn.
There was also leniency toward Israel last year during its
two-week "Grapes of Wrath" bombardment of southern Lebanon.
In one incident, more than 100 refugees were killed when
Israeli artillery shelled a United Nations post at Qana.
It was several days before Washington condemned the attack,
which a UN investigation found was deliberate. The post had
been watched by the Israelis using a direct video link.
Western diplomats, including many Americans, regularly
charge that the US line is too "Israel specific." During the
cold war, Israel's strategic value to the US was as a
Mideast ally against Soviet-backed regimes. Now many
supporters of Israel cast it as a bulwark against Islamic
fundamentalism.
Two years before dual containment of Iran and Iraq became
policy, for example, Israel began encouraging the US to
isolate Iran. In 1995, at a World Jewish Congress dinner,
Clinton announced a US embargo.
"The Israeli lobby has been a primary source of the
problem," says Javad Zarif, Iran's deputy foreign minister
in Tehran, echoing many Western diplomats. "It shows how far
the US has gone to cater to ... a very specific interest
group, that they are able to overcome all the 'experts.' "
A request by Saudi Arabia to purchase 100 F-16 fighter
planes, in line with the US policy of arming allies in the
Gulf, was said by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
to "put into question" the strategic balance.
With Mr. Netanyahu by his side in February, Mr. Clinton said
that "any decision I make about the F-16 saleâ has to be
made in a way that is consistent with our first commitment,
which is to do nothing that will undermine the qualitative
edge of Israeli security forces in the Middle East." The
Saudi request has been quietly put off. Top Saudi officials
are looking to take the $ 5 billion contract elsewhere. One
diplomat was quoted as saying the crown prince "wants the US
to stop giving the impression they side systematically with
the Star of David."
For other Arab allies, the Jewish lobby can be useful. It is
one of the strongest proponents of America's $ 2.1 billion
annual "reward" to Egypt for making peace with Israel. That
amount, US diplomats say, makes Israel's own annual subsidy
of $ 3.5 billion look more palatable to US taxpayers. There
is also a strategic benefit.
"The US will not allow Israel to go to war," says Mamdouh
Anis Fathy of the Egyptian Army's Strategic Studies Center.
"They will allow limited attacks against Lebanon, or Syria,
or Iran ... but not total war. "
Israeli military historian Martin van Creveld in Jerusalem
says the US support has also been an "act of bribery" to
keep Israel from relying too much on its nuclear deterrent.
Without cash for conventional forces, he says, Israel's
reliance on its atomic arsenal would have "made the Mideast
a much more dangerous place for the US."
But the US-Israel alliance is widely seen to have weakened
the US role. A recent poll of Palestinians found 96 percent
say the US favors Israel in the process. The peace process
has fallen apart since Israel began building Jewish housing
in Arab East Jerusalem in March and a Palestinian suicide
bomb ravaged a Tel Aviv cafe. On July 30, a double bombing
in Jerusalem further dimmed hopes for progress.
Under President Bush and Secretary of State James Baker,
Arab leaders were convinced by a relatively tough American
stance toward Israel. Irritated at one point in 1990, Mr.
Baker publicly told the Israelis: "Our telephone number is
456-1414. When you're serious about peace, call us."
"'Provocation' is a strong term, but the manner in which Mr.
Netanyahu has acted makes it apt," Mr. Scowcroft wrote in a
June article in the International Herald Tribune. "The
United States needs to assert the absolute priority of its
own interests in the Middle East peace process. It never
should provoke confrontation with Israel, but ... this
sometimes is unavoidable."
Clinton only lightly criticized Israel for building in East
Jerusalem and cast two vetoes against a UN Security Council
condemnation. "This commitment to Israel's securityâ is iron
clad and unequivocal," Vice President Al Gore recently said.
In Jerusalem, meanwhile, sales are up for one long-selling
T-shirt. "Don't worry America," it reads. "Israel is behind
you."
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The Christian Science Monitor
August 6, 1997, Wednesday
"Triggers and Fault Lines"
SERIES: Peace in the Balance: A new instability threatens
the Middle East. Second of two reports.
By Scott Peterson
Political minefields could touch off new conflicts
1. TURKEY: Its new alliance with Israel is seen as a threat
by Syria, Iran, and Iraq. The Islamist prime minister
signed a $ 20 billion gas deal with Iran, but a worried
secular military curtails Islamist power.
2. LIBYA: A secret NATO report leaked to a Spanish newspaper
warns that Libya will have ballistic missiles with a 1,250-
mile range by 2006.
3. ALGERIA: Islamic guerrillas have waged a violent
insurgency since 1992. Turkey, Egypt, and some Gulf states,
trying to control their extremists, see a dangerous example.
4. EGYPT: Though it receives $ 2.1 billion in US aid a year,
a CIA report last year warned that Egypt had acquired
missile parts from North Korea. Its largest military
exercises since 1973, carried out last October in the Sinai,
were aimed at a possible conflict with Israel.
5. SOUTHERN EGYPT: The Islamic fundamentalist violence of
the early 1990s has been crushed by Egypt's military, but
remains a potent force easily tapped in Cairo's slums and in
southern Egypt.
6. SOUTHERN LEBANON: The last "hot" front line in the Arab-
Israeli conflict. Occupying Israeli troops here face daily
losses from Iran -backed Hizbullah guerrillas. Israel wants
to get out, but does not trust Hizbullah to stop rocket
attacks on northern Israel.
7. ISRAEL: The Arab-Israeli peace process begun in 1991 has
all but collapsed, and was further shaken by a double
bombing in Jerusalem July 30. The US has done little so far
to stop the slide. The Israeli army has tested plans to
invade and reoccupy the West Bank and Gaza if Palestinian
rule falters. Israeli Defense Forces last year asked for a $
1 billion budget increase to prepare for possible war with
Syria. Israel broke off talks with Syria last year.
8. GAZA STRIP: Antipeace Islamist groups are responsible for
terrorist attacks against civilian targets in Israel. Once
jailed by Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, most activists
have now been released. There is renewed pressure to arrest
them.
9. ARAB EAST Jerusalem: Jewish settlement continues on
occupied Arab lands, creating flash points. Palestinians
born in Jerusalem are also losing their residence rights
under Israeli policy.
10. HEBRON: Handfuls of heavily guarded Jewish extremists
live among hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. Diplomats
expect conflict to intensify.
11. TEL AVIV: Internal divisions have polarized Israeli
society between left and right, and pro- and anti-peace
camps.
12. SOUTHERN ISRAEL: To counter Israel's nuclear arsenal -
some of which has just been reported by Jane's Intelligence
Review to be vulnerable to "third world missiles" with
nuclear warheads - Arab opponents have pursued chemical and
biological weapons.
13. JORDAN: King Hussein took a risk by making peace with
Israel in 1994. But the crisis in Palestinian-Israeli talks
has angered Jordanians, who have seen little peace dividend.
14. IRAQ: UN inspectors have worked to disarm Iraq of
weapons of mass destruction, but Baghdad continues to thwart
efforts. Since northern and southern uprisings against
President Saddam Hussein at the end of the Gulf War, Saddam
has tightened his grip, despite a broad UN- and US-imposed
no-fly zone. He also exposed two covert CIA operations meant
to topple him. Neighbors see Iraq as a buffer against Iran's
Islamic fundamentalism and fear Iraq will become too weak -
or too strong.
15. SAUDI ARABIA: It has nearly one-fourth of the world's
known oil reserves. But despite spending billions on arms,
it is unable to defend itself against Iran and Iraq. King
Fahd is ailing, and the Crown Prince is seen to be less pro-
West.
16. DHAHRAN, SAUDI ARABIA: A bomb blast here killed 19
American servicemen last year; friction over the
investigation has raised doubts about this US ally. Saudi
Arabia blames Iran; others blame internal Islamist opponents
who want the US out of the region. Both Israel and Saudi
Arabia have warned the US against military action against
Iran.
17. GULF ISLANDS: Claimed by Iran, these UAE islands,
including Tunb, are a source of trouble. Since taking
control in the early 1970s, Iran has deployed missiles and
can block the Straight of Hormuz.
18. IRAN'S SOUTHERN COAST: US commanders say Iran can
easily turn off the Gulf oil supply to the outside world.
Iranians counter that keeping shipping lanes open is in
their interest, too.
19. PERSIAN GULF: Some 20,000 US troops here since the end
of the Gulf War ostensibly ensure the flow of oil and
"protect" allies by containing Iran and Iraq. Iran views the
presence as imperialist force. Allies fear conflict with
Iran.
20. BAHRAIN AND QATAR: The US Fifth Fleet is based in
Bahrain; Qatar allows storage of US military armor that
then-Secretary of Defense William Perry last year called
"the linchpin" of Gulf security. Many Iranians claim Bahrain
as Iran's 14th province.
21. KUWAIT: Still deemed by Iraq to be Baghdad's 19th
province, it is surrounded by potential enemies. US troops
here are on constant alert. UN guards a fortified border.
22. IRAN-IRAQ BORDER: War between Iran and Iraq in the
1980s left nearly 1 million dead; Iran still holds 18,000
Iraqi prisoners of war. An alliance between these two would
pose major problems for the West, but deep enmity continues.
23. IRAN: "Relentless pursuit," in the words of the CIA, of
weapons of mass destruction and support of terrorism abroad
put Iran atop US black list. There are now hints of a US-
Iran rapprochement. But some Iranian intelligence units work
beyond government control. Says a Western diplomat in
Tehran: "These groups want trouble; they are sabotaging
wherever they can."
24. SOUTHERN CASPIAN SEA: Oil and gas reserves here make
Iran a logical transshipment point for Caucasus and Central
Asian energy to the Gulf. Iran connects Asia to the Middle
East and Europe.
25. NORTHERN IRAQ: Saddam reexerted military authority over
the Kurdish north in September 1996. Turkish separatists of
the PKK have used the region, and northern Syria, to launch
attacks. Tens of thousands of Turkish troops crossed into
Iraq in May to hunt them down. But Syria still provides
help, using the PKK to pressure Turkey to keep water
supplies flowing.
26. SYRIA: It has largest and most advanced chemical-
weapons stockpile in the region. Some Israeli analysts say
the prospect of Israel developing an antimissile defense
could spur a preemptive strike by Syria. But Western
sources in Damascus say Syria's aging conventional force
makes this unlikely.
27. GOLAN HEIGHTS: Occupied by Israel in 1967. Syria has
made clear it will never be at peace with Israel until the
Golan is returned. Israel's prime minister has vowed it
will never be handed back and has encouraged Jewish
settlement.
28. CYPRUS: The island was split in 1974 when Turkey
invaded, following a coup by right-wing Greek Cypriots who
wanted to unite the island with Greece. Thousands of
Turkish troops remain.
29. HEADWATERS OF THE TIGRIS AND EUPHRATES RIVERS: Any
manipulation by Turkey of these waters could lead to war
with Iraq or Syria. Israel has restricted
Palestinian water use in the occupied territories.
------------------------------------------------------------
The Christian Science Monitor
August 6, 1997, Wednesday
"Gulf States Perfect 'Art' of Waging Limited War"
SERIES: Peace in the Balance: A new instability threatens
the Middle East. Second of two reports.
By Scott Peterson
Gone may be battles like the Gulf War, with clear front
lines, identifiable enemies
One of the most effective weapons used against Israeli
soldiers occupying southern Lebanon can be purchased at the
Debbas light shop on Beirut's posh Hamra Street.
There in the window, beside the elegant wall lamps, are fake
fiberglass boulders used for landscaping: $ 15 each. A
cavity inside is meant for a light bulb, but Hizbullah
guerrillas pack them instead with radio-controlled
explosives.
In Hizbullah's fight against Israeli occupation, this device
is causing many casualties and sapping Israeli morale.
Israel's military superiority may be unquestioned. But
Hizbullah videotapes show one unsuspecting Israeli patrol
after another taking hits from the guerrillas' hidden bombs.
Israel occupied the nine-mile-wide "buffer zone" in 1978 to
prevent attacks on northern Israel. Marking the anniversary
of Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon in June, Defense
Minister Yitzhak Mordechai declared: "We want to get out."
The example points to the likely future of warfare in the
Middle East, when the saturation of ballistic missiles,
chemical and biological weapons, and atomic bombs will make
any all-out war too risky.
Instead, the next decades are likely to see more guerrilla
conflict, in which proxy warriors and alliances are used to
wage limited war for political reasons, and to keep the
front lines far from home.
The lesson of Lebanon, in which Syria and Iran fight Israel
by "assisting" Hizbullah resistance, may be the most useful
model for that future conflict. " Lebanonâ has depleted
Israel without an army, without even arms," says Mohammed
el-Sayed Said, of the Center for Political and Strategic
Studies in Cairo. "Israel is not vulnerable to high-tech
weapons, but they are very vulnerable to low-tech," he says.
Gone may be the traditional notions of set-piece battles
like the Gulf War, with clear front lines and identifiable
enemies.
Interstate warfare will give way to intrastate conflict in
which terrorists and guerrilla "cells" are the weapons, says
Martin van Creveld, an Israeli military historian in
Jerusalem. "We have a choice: either the European Union or
the chaos of Somalia," he says. "We have watched the rise
and fall of the states, but nuclear weapons make states
unable to fight nuclear wars. "
If anyone should be startled by this "news that present-day
armed conflict does not distinguish between governments,
armies, and peoples," he notes, "it is the citizens of the
developed world and, even more, the members of their defense
establishments, who for decades on end have prepared for the
wrong kind of war. "
Proxy wars have been waged in the Mideast since the
Assassins terrorized Arabs and Crusaders alike with suicide
attacks in the Middle Ages. The Assassins originated as a
Shia Muslim sect in northern Iran in the 11th century,
killing by any means - sometimes when hired - for a blend of
religious and political reasons.
Syria's President Hafez al-Assad has made most effective use
of proxy groups, keeping an array of 10 radical antipeace
Palestinian factions in Damascus to taunt Israel and PLO
chief Yasser Arafat. He has allowed the Kurdistan Worker's
Party to have rear bases for attacking Turkey, and supports
Hizbullah against Israel.
Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria all manipulate Kurdish
factions in northern Iraq for their own aims. Iraq harbors
an army of 30,000 mujahideen opponents of Iran, and Iran
hosts anti- Iraq military units.
Iranian factions are widely believed to be agitating Muslim
Shiites to challenge secular Arab governments: setting up a
"Hizbullah" faction in every moderate state. All these
groups are latent threats against a potential enemy.
Israel has also taken part, to its regret. In the 1970s, the
Islamic movement Hamas was secretly supported by Israel as a
counter to Mr. Arafat. But Hamas grew into a viable
antipeace faction, and has been responsible for suicide
bombs in Israel that have damaged the peace process.
Limits of what could be achieved by large-scale war were
made clear by the Gulf War. Tariq Aziz, Iraq's interlocutor
with coalition forces during the war, says threats of
apocalypse never came to pass.
"James Baker then secretary of stateâ told me: 'We will bomb
you back to the pre-industrial age, and another leadership
will decide the future of Iraq, ' " Mr. Aziz said in an
interview in Baghdad. "But six years later, Iraq is still a
major power ... and Saddam Hussein is still president."
For Israel, there should also be a lesson, Aziz says: "The
mightiest power on the globe, with 28 other states, couldn't
do it. So Israel alone can't do it.... Israel will
therefore never be safe because it is 4 or 5 million in a
sea of 220 million Arabs. It will never be safe unless it
eliminates the entire Arab nation, and that is impossible,"
he says. Such a conflict is unlikely to ever occur, though,
because changing alliances are creating new axes of power
across the region. Possible links include:
* Turkey, an Islamic NATO ally with a strong secular
tradition, has found its role as bridge between East and
West to be both a blessing and a curse.
Turkey's Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan last year
signed a 20-year gas deal with Iran - breaking American
sanctions - but he was forced out of power in June by
Turkey's watchful, secular military. Another gas deal for $
2.5 billion was signed with Iraq in May.
But most important, Turkey's military since 1995 has signed
two major military agreements with Israel. Iran would make
a natural third partner, but not under Iran's current
Islamic regime. Jordan, and maybe even Syria, if peace talks
resume, may count themselves in.
Israel's defense chief Mr. Mordechai, however, adds the US
to form "a triangle of strong forces in the Middle East
against any threat of extremist elements."
* Iran is wooing its own friends, looking north and east
toward Russia, Central Asia, and China for strategic help.
Such a line-up could conceivably include Turkey - depending
upon the sway of its voters - or Syria, which already has
"ace-up-the-sleeve" contact with Iran. Lebanon's defense
minister has said he would be "happy" to sign a pact with
Iran. And Iran's president vowed in July to "defend the
rights of the Lebanese and Palestinians" against Israel.
* Saudi Arabia now dominates the oil-wealthy Gulf States,
but signs of instability have emerged. Saudi is one subject
that tiny Gulf sheikhdoms rarely discuss, fearful that
various unresolved border disputes might again become
serious.
"They don't fear a Saudi takeover, but a break-up of Saudi
Arabia into civil war, " says a senior Western diplomat in
Doha. Uncertainty has caused the US to look for other close
allies, such as Qatar.
* The US is betting on creating a Pax Americana in the Gulf,
despite long-term risks of exerting such dominance, deep
military cutbacks, and official denials. But analysts say
growing Arab discontent with the hefty US role could
severely limit US deployment options in the future.
War-fighting has often been transformed in method and
meaning since St. Augustine first put forth the chivalrous
notion of "just war" in the 5th century. US forces today are
the best prepared for the high-tech military threats of the
next century. American military spending of $ 250 billion
each year is equal to that spent on the next 10 biggest war
machines in the world -most of those kept by US allies.
Significantly, however, the breakdown of the US
"peacekeeping" mission in Somalia in 1993 showed that
American forces are as vulnerable to low-tech methods as is
Israel. Despite using state-of-the-art satellites for nearly
every other facet of war, US troops laying a pontoon bridge
across a winter-flooded Bosnian river last year took three
full weeks. Old-fashioned fog delayed troop arrivals for
days on end.
Challenging as these missions can be, there are likely to be
more: Since the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, the US Army has
been deployed 25 times. In the previous 40 years, it had
been deployed only 10 times. Some argue that the influx of
arms may clog the Middle East with armaments and deter war.
But others warn that the biblical Samson - who pulled down
the columns of the shrine in Gaza, killing himself with all
others - is a "homegrown hero."
"Over the past two centuries, the optimists and pessimists,
each predicting the end of war for different reasons, have
been proven wrong," notes Donald Kagan, a historian at Yale
University. "Believing in, and hoping for, progress, they
forgot that war has been a persistent part of the human
experience since the birth of civilization."
The point of our brutal history, he says, is that "peace
does not preserve itself."
So in the Middle East the stakes are high. And the
historical record is not promising, for long ago this region
mastered the art of war.
All the more reason for the future, Mr. Kagan says, to learn
the "vital art of avoiding war. "
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ARTICLES FOR FAIR USE ONLY
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