DOW 8000 & SADDAM'S REVENGE?
J. Adams
September 29th, 1997
The *Spirit Of Truth* Page
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/
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"The harvest in the Mother of Battles has succeeded...
the greater harvest and its yield
will be in the time to come..."
(comment by Saddam Hussein following the Gulf War)
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"The Arab countries should be asking themselves,
'Who will fire the 40th missile against Israel?'"
-Saddam Hussein
(From a speech he gave on the fourth anniversary
of the start of the Gulf War.)
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I've written versions of this article as the Dow has climbed
to each new thousand mark over the past three years-or-so, i.e.,
"Dow 4000....5000....6000 & Saddam's Revenge?". Does this
reflect my irrational expectations or the increasing
irrationality of Wall Street's and society's high, higher and
higher-still expectations and manic mood?
-The Persian Gulf Deception-
The truth of the matter is that things did not add up right
when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and took on the West in 1990
and 1991. The Iraqi invasion and subsequent Gulf War were filled
with numerous inconsistencies and contradictions in the behavior
of Iraq, the Arab powers and Russia that suggested some sort of
large-scale strategic deception was taking place. In order to
better understand this, please read my articles on the "Persian
Gulf Deception" at-
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/content.html
The reality is that Saddam Hussein is working in cahoots with
Russia and Iraq's fellow hardline Arab powers like Syria and
possibly Iran, Libya, etc. in order to mislead Israel and the
West so that a succesful Jihad, or so-called "Holy War", of mass
destruction can be unleashed against "World Zionism". Thus, in
the wake of the Gulf War, it's just been a matter of time before
the right geopolitical pieces would fall into place so that
Saddam could exact his Arabic revenge against those supposed
"imperialist" foes that have seemingly repressed his regime and
the Arab people for so many years. It appears that the time for
this Jihad may now be at hand.
-Magical Thousand Marks in the DJIA-
The reason one can expect Saddam's Revenge to occur at this
time is because there is currently an ominous parallel on Wall
Street to what occurred just before Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990
and just before the Arabs last launched a surprise attack against
Israel in 1973.
As I have explained in the past, stock prices and collective
expectations tend to peak around thousand mark "psychological
barriers" in the DJIA. Between 1966 and 1982, the Dow reversed
from the 1000 mark five times, dropping an average of thirty
percent with each reversal-
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/1000.jpeg
In 1990, the DJIA plunged twenty percent in three months after
reaching just below 3000-
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/3000.gif
In 1994, the Dow fell 10 percent when it first tested the 4000
mark-
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/4000.gif
Likewise, earlier this year, the DJIA dropped ten percent just
after reaching above the 7000 mark for the first time in history-
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/7000.gif
(For more information on this, see my related "Grand Supercycle"
articles at- http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/update.html ).
-Not-So-Random Shocks-
Remarkably, each time the DJIA has reversed from these key
thousand mark psychological barriers, negative world events have
occurred that upset investors' expectations and seemingly caused
the market to decline. One example of this occurred in 1973 when
the DJIA failed to get above the 1000 mark in late-October. As
stock prices reversed, the Arabs launched their Yom Kippur
surprise attack against Israel. Consequently, a so-called "oil-
shock" occurred that sent stock prices down some 40 percent over
the next year. Likewise, in 1990, when the DJIA closed at
2999.75 two days in a row in mid-July, stock prices reversed as
Saddam Hussein began threatening Kuwait. Soon Iraq invaded
Kuwait, oil prices sky-rocketed and stock prices plunged 20
percent by October of that year.
-The Crash-
It now appears that this psychological barrier phenomenon is
once again occurring. The DJIA surged to what may have been a
historic Grand Supercycle peak above 8000 in early-August and
then dropped back below 8000. Over the past month-or-so, the
DJIA has been struggling to climb back above 8000 and today the
index closed within 10 points of the critical mark-
http://www.timely.com/p&djia.htm
Meanwhile, other key U.S. stock market indices like the NYSE
index and Russell 1000 index are also at psychological barriers,
i.e., the 500 mark-
http://www.timely.com/p&nyci.htm
Lastly, key foreign stock averages like the Canadian TSE 300,
London FTSE 100 and French CAC 30 are around the 7000, 5000 and
3000 marks, respectively-
http://www.timely.com/p&toro.htm
http://www.timely.com/p&ftse.htm
http://www.timely.com/p&pcac.htm
Now, as these stock market averages are reaching these
critical psychological barriers, and, in particularly, just as
the DJIA might fail at the 8000 mark, news is coming out of the
Middle East that suggests another war is in the making. Today
this news concerns attacks against Saddam Hussein's Iraq by
Turkey and Iran. In response, Iraqi and Syrian troops are on the
move.
No matter how a new war develops in the region, you can bet
one thing is for sure. Ultimately we are looking at a new
Arab/Israeli war that will probably begin with a chemical SCUD
attack on Israel. During the Gulf War in 1991, God revealed to
me that this war in the Middle East, and the global nuclear
holocaust that will follow, is what will "cause" the so-called
"Grand Supercycle crash" in mass mood I've been expecting for the
past decade. Consistent with the normal seasonality of
collective mood swings, it now appears the crash is going to
occur during the infamous "Black" month of October, i.e., when
the 1929 and 1987 crashes occurred.
See "The Truth" at-
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/j03.html
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Extel Examiner
September 29, 1997, Monday
"Syria moves troops,
Iraq mobilises forces after Turkish incursion"
ANKARA (AFX) - Syria has moved a tank division to the
triangle of its borders with Turkey and Iraq, and Baghdad has
mobilised its forces after a Turkish army incursion into northern
Iraq against separatist Kurds, a leading Iraqi opposition group
said.
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"Turks continue offensive against Kurds"
ANKARA, Turkey (September 29, 1997 09:21 a.m. EDT) -- On the
eighth day of an offensive against Kurdish foes, Turkish jets
pounded rebel positions in northern Iraq on Monday, Turkey's
official Anatolia agency reported.
The air strikes targeted five locations, the dispatch said.
Anatolia said the guerrillas were fleeing toward the Iranian
border or further south.
Since 1984, the Kurdistan Workers Party's war for autonomy within
Turkey has claimed 28,000 lives.
Iraqi Kurds established a de facto state in northern Iraq after
the 1991 Persian Gulf War, and the Turkish Kurdish rebels took
advantage of the power vacuum to set up bases there.
About 16,000 Turkish troops involved in the crackdown have been
aided by the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which has control over
the region close to the Turkish border.
Turkish troops reportedly have killed 138 rebels so far. At least
six soldiers also died.
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"Government attacked two Iraq bases, Iran's opposition says"
By Waiel Faleh, The Associated Press
BAGHDAD, Iraq (September 29, 1997 5:45 p.m. EDT) -- Iranian
warplanes crossed into Iraq and bombed two Iranian rebel bases
Monday, injuring two Iraqi civilians, rebels said.
Iran did not immediately confirm the raid against strongholds of
the Mujahedeen Khalq, or People's Warriors, who have fought since
the 1980s to oust Iran's hard-line Islamic regime.
But the Iraqi News Agency said Iraqi air force scrambled jets to
chase out the Iranian planes. And Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister
Tariq Aziz protested the raid to the United Nations, urging
Secretary-General Kofi Annan to press Tehran to stop its
"aggression" against Iraq.
Rebel spokesman Ali Safavi said the attacks were simultaneous,
with five Phantom fighter-bombers striking a base near the city
of Kut, 105 miles southeast of Baghdad, and four jets hitting a
base 81 miles northeast of the capital.
A statement issued by the rebels said that "several buildings at
the base near Kut sustained some damage." The Iraqi civilians
were injured at Jalula, where "several bombs fell on residential
areas around the base," it said.
In response, U.N. officials overseeing an oil-for-food program in
Iraq pulled their observers out of the areas where the air raids
took place. The program allows Iraq to sell oil and to use the
profits to buy food and medicine, an exception to sanctions on
oil sales imposed after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.
Reporters taken to the site after the attack said two more
Iranian warplanes flew over the camp but did not drop any bombs.
They said Iraqi anti-aircraft batteries opened fired on the
intruding planes.
The city of Kut is inside a southern "no-fly" zone set up by the
United States and its allies after the 1991 Persian Gulf War to
protect Iraqi minorities from attacks by Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein's forces. The area around Kut is patrolled by U.S. and
British jets.
The United States condemned the alleged attack, but warned
against retaliation.
"We do not support the reported Iranian incursion into the Iraqi
air space for any reason," State Department spokesman James P.
Rubin told reporters. "That said, Iraqi violations of the no-fly
zone are not acceptable under any circumstances."
The U.S.-led coalition will take "whatever action necessary" if
Iraqi warplanes take to the air, he said.
Iran has launched several attacks on mujahedeen and Kurdish
opposition bases in Iraq since the Persian Gulf War. Iranian
missiles attacked Camp Ashraf, a major mujahedeen base northeast
of Baghdad, in 1994 after targeting it during bombing raids in
1992 and 1993. The Iranians also launched an air attack on
Kurdish bases in Iraq in 1993.
The Ashraf camp is one of at least five bases maintained in Iraq
by the Mujahedeen Khalq's military wing, the National Liberation
Army, and its 30,000 troops.
Meanwhile, Britain said Monday it hopes to hold regular meetings
with Iraqi opposition groups to find "ways to improve Iraq's
behavior."
A delegation of opposition figures led by Dr. Ahmad Chalabi of
the Iraqi National Congress met for more than an hour in London
with British and U.S. government officials at the Foreign Office.
"We were very encouraged to hear the officials say that the
United Kingdom and United States would not deal with Iraq while
Saddam is in power," the opposition group said.
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France Press Agency
September 28, 1997
"Two teams of UN arms inspectors in Iraq"
Two teams of UN arms experts are inspecting sites in Iraq as
part of their efforts to eliminate weapons of mass destruction, a
diplomatic source said Sunday.
The source said one of the teams was made up of experts in
biological weapons -- a key area of concern for the inspectors of
the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) in charge of disarming Iraq --
and led by a US national.
UNSCOM itself has for the last two weeks kept a lid on the
activities of its inspectors, under orders from New York.
The blackout has been imposed in the run-up to the October 11
date by which UNSCOM chairman Richard Butler is to submit a
report to the UN Security Council on the state of Iraqi
cooperation with the arms inspections.
On September 17, the Security Council called for Iraq's full
cooperation with UNSCOM after two incidents in which Iraqi
officials tried to deny access to "sensitive" sites.
Similar incidents in May and June triggered a warning from the
Security Council of new sanctions against Baghdad and said it
would review the level of Iraq's cooperation in October.
Foreign Minister Mohammad Said al-Sahhaf discussed ties with
UNSCOM in talks last week with his counterparts, including
France's Hubert Vedrine, at the UN General Assembly in New York,
the official news agency INA said.
Iraq has been under UN sanctions since its 1990 invasion of
Kuwait.
The oil embargo can not be lifted until UNSCOM certifies that
Iraq's chemical, biological and nuclear weapons as well as long-
range missiles have been eliminated.
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BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
September 3, 1997, Wednesday
"Opposition radio reports more Iraqi
government troop movements in north"
Source: Voice of Rebellious Iraq in Arabic 1215 gmt 1 Sep 97
Text of report by Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution
in Iraq, SAIRI, radio on 1st September
In recent days, there has been an escalation of the hectic
movements of the Saddam regime's armed forces along the contact
lines with the liberated Iraqi Kurdistan areas. In addition to
the reinforcements in the areas where the 5th Army Corps is
deployed, especially in the Kuwayr and Khush Tappah areas and
around the Makhmur area, military reinforcements from the 5th
Army Corps were sent to the areas located between Aski Kalak on
the Khazir River and Mosul. Movements and reinforcements by the
2nd Army Corps forces were also witnessed on the Tuz Khurmatu-
Kifri-Klar axis and the Khanaqin district. Other movements were
also monitored in the 1st Army Corps sector, close to Chamchamal.
Meanwhile, the organizations affiliated with the authority
party and their groups of gunmen in the Kirkuk, Diyala and Mosul
Governorates were put on maximum alert. The state of alert
covered the networks of the authority party members and security
personnel in the Dohuk, Arbil and Sulaymaniyah Governorates.
These networks were activated and secretly reinforced over the
past few months. These movements began last July. Hundreds of
secret security agents posing as members of tour groups organized
by travel agents to Dohuk and Irbin were sent. These movements
coincided with staged Kurdish demonstrations in Baghdad, which
marched towards the UN offices demanding the return of the regime
to Kurdistan and urging pro-regime propaganda activities by the
Kurdish parties affiliated with the regime and the so-called
autonomous region institutions.
The authority agencies and personnel are spreading rumours
about an imminent invasion by the regime troops of the Kurdistan
region and the return of the Saddam regime and agencies to it,
recalling the 31st August 1996 events when the Arbil Governorate
was invaded by the Saddam regime.
Meanwhile, we have received information from various sources
about the intention of the Saddamist repressive agencies to
launch strikes or to carry out more explosions and other
terrorist acts. The prevailing atmosphere among the masses
throughout liberated Kurdistan is one of anxiety, fear and
apprehension as they observe with concern the movements of the
regime's troops, agents and agencies. According to other
information, many families are preparing for leaving the cities
and areas that, according to rumours, will be attacked by the
Saddam regime's troops within days.
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BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
August 28, 1997, Thursday
"Opposition cites 'military experts'
on troop movements on borders"
Source: 'Al-Majd', Amman, in Arabic 25 Aug 97
Text of report by Jordanian weekly 'Al-Majd' on 25th August
Citing Iraqi military experts, Iraqi opposition sources said
that over the past four days Iraq has begun to mobilize its
troops along the Iraqi-Saudi, Iraqi-Kuwaiti and Iraqi-Syrian
borders. The Iraqi experts said that there was unusual movement
of military vehicles between Iraqi governorates. In addition to
this, missile batteries and anti-aircraft artillery were deployed
throughout the Iraqi territory adjacent to the common borders
with Syria.
The Iraqi opposition sources said that these movements and the
deployment of troops along the Saudi and Kuwaiti borders were out
of a fear that US troops would enter Iraq if Iraqi forces
supported the Syrian army in case of a military confrontation
with Israel.
The Iraqi newspaper 'Babil', which is run by Iraqi President
Saddam Husayn's son, Udayy, called - in its 23rd August issue -
for establishing a military alliance between Syria and Iraq in
response to the growing military alliance between Turkey and
Israel.
'Babil' also welcomed the strengthening of trade relations
between Damascus and Baghdad, and urged them to resume diplomatic
relations as soon as possible.
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BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
August 22, 1997, Friday
"Opposition group comments on recent
troop movements, appointments"
Source: 'Al-Hayat', London, in Arabic 21 Aug 97
Excerpt from report by London-based newspaper
'Al-Hayat' on 21st August
London: Reports circulated by an Iraqi opposition organization
yesterday said that Baghdad has been massing troops in the Basra
and Nasiriyah governorates in southern Iraq and that President
Saddam Husayn has appointed his cousin Ali Hasan al-Majid as
military governor of the two governorates.
The statement issued by (Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim's) Supreme
Assembly for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq SAIRIā, of which 'Al-
Hayat'has received a copy, said that the concentration of troops
includes Mechanized Division 15 under the command of Staff Brig-
Gen Hikmat Kazim Salman near Zubayr Bridge on the Sahah Sa'd-
Zubayr road, the deployment of the 6th Armoured Division which
includes an infantry brigade (in Basra's Khuyut area) under the
command of Staff Lt-Col Ali Husayn Jasim, the 30th Armoured
Brigade in the Zurayji area (in Basra governorate), an infantry
brigade in the Nashwah area, an infantry brigade in Basra-
Shu'aybah, the 32nd Brigade in Rumaylah, a tank battalion
belonging to the brigade and an armoured brigade in Basra-
Shu'aybah, a tank battalion on the Basra-Nasiriyah road, another
tank battalion in Shu'aybah, and an artillery brigade in
Rumaylah. The statement also spoke of an infantry division being
deployed in Nasiriyah.
There were also reports of new appointments in Nasiriyah and
Basra governorates involving "some people who took part in the
invasion of Kuwait, such as the appointment of Ali Hasan al-Majid
as military governor and (ruling) Ba'th Party official in Basra
and Nasiriyah, the appointment of former Chief of Staff Iyad
Futayh al-Rawi as governor of Nasiriyah, and the appointment of
Hashim Hasan al-Majid, Ali Hasan al-Majid's brother, as governor
of Basra" . The statement added that carriers were seen
transporting tanks and heading towards southern Iraq. It is not
ruled out that the troop concentration might be in connection
with an attack being planned by President Saddam Husayn...
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"Turkish troops push on in spite of stern Iraqi warning"
DIYARBAKIR, Turkey (September 26, 1997 3:33 p.m. EDT - Turkish
troops, backed by air power, consolidated their positions in
northern Iraq Friday amid reports of fighting with Kurdish
guerrillas in an operation which has infuriated Iraq.
Turkey's army chief said his troops would soon pull out of the
mountainous region, once their mission against Kurdistan Workers
Party (PKK) rebels was completed.
"The duration is not certain, but I don't think it will last
long. We will return when the work is done," state-run Anatolian
news agency quoted Chief of General Staff Ismail Hakki Karadayi
as saying.
Around 15,000 troops are taking part in the push against the PKK,
a party of Turkish Kurds which often operates from northern Iraq
in its fight for self-rule in southeast Turkey.
PKK fighters ambushed Turkish troops on a mountain pass Thursday,
killing eight soldiers, Kurdish broadcaster Med TV said Friday.
Other Turkish units occupied the Zawite pass between the Iraqi
Kurdish provincial capital of Dahuk and the town of Amadiyah in
the course of their fight against the PKK, said a spokesman for
the Iraqi National Congress, an umbrella group for opponents of
the Iraqi government.
Turkish border officials said Turkish soldiers had entered Dahuk,
and armoured units were guarding mountain passes on the road
between Dahuk and the Iraqi border town of Zakho, 30 miles away.
Anatolian said the bodies of six Turkish soldiers killed in the
operation were flown to the eastern Turkish city of Van Friday.
Earlier, a military official told Reuters that Turkish troops had
killed 44 PKK rebels for the loss of three soldiers in the
operation up to then.
The offensive, Turkey's second major cross-border raid since May,
has angered Baghdad, which lost control of northern Iraq to Iraqi
Kurd groups after the 1991 Gulf War.
An official Iraqi newspaper called for "suitable retaliation"
against NATO member Turkey. "We shall not tolerate (this) and we
support suitable retaliation to defend our people in Iraq's
Kurdistan and to defend our boundaries," the al-Iraq newspaper
said.
"Our leadership, at the top of which is our symbolic leader
Saddam Hussein, and our armed forces are able to settle the
situation ... and defend our frontiers and national sovereignty,"
it said in an editorial titled "Let us retaliate."
The foray has also been criticized by state radio in Iran, which
borders both Iraq and Turkey. Turkey's relations with the Arab
world have worsened since it announced a military training pact
with Israel in 1996.
A U.S.-led air force based in Turkey protects northern Iraq Kurds
from any Baghdad attack but Ankara fears much of the area is
falling under the control of the PKK.
Britain, a partner in the air force, expressed concern at the
operation Friday.
"Britain understands Turkey's need to fight terrorism but is
concerned that the operation should be as short as possible and
avoids causing civilian casualties," an embassy spokesman in
Ankara said.
Anatolian said Turkish planes had destroyed 10 PKK camps near the
rugged Iraqi-Turkish border, which Turkey has closed to both
Turkish and foreign journalists.
Witnesses in Diyarbakir, the main city in southeastern Turkey,
said four F-16 fighter-bombers took off from the local airport
Friday morning. It was not clear where they were heading.
Anatolian said the PKK had recently sent 1,000 guerrillas into
northern Iraq from neighboring Syria and Iran in preparation for
attacks on Turkey.
Tehran and Damascus deny frequent Turkish charges that they
support the PKK, which first took up arms in 1984. More than
26,000 people have died in the rebels' 13-year-old campaign.
Anatolian said the Turkish offensive was being carried out at the
request of an Iraqi Kurdish militia, the Kurdistan Democratic
Party (KDP), which has been fighting the PKK for control of
northern Iraq and helped Turkish troops in a previous cross-
border operation in May.
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Agence France Presse
September 11, 1997
"Iraq calls for jihad against Israel,
slams US peace efforts"
Iraq urged Arab states on Thursday to mount a jihad, or
Moslem holy war, against Israel and to reject a US-sponsored
peace process which it says is biased toward the Jewish state.
"All the signs and historical facts show that the Arabs have
no choice but to pursue the jihad against the (Israeli)
occupier," said Ath-Thawra, organ of the ruling Baath Party.
It said US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's maiden tour
of the Middle East that started in Israel on Wednesday was aimed
solely at "guaranteeing the security of the (Israeli) aggressor
which practises terrorism."
The peace process sponsored by Washington is "totally partial"
toward Israel, it charged, adding that the US administration
would "never accept the slightest pressure on the Zionist
entity."
It slammed "Arab heads of state who think they can settle
matters by negotiating with the enemy."
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