The Jesus Christ Super-Smackdown 2004

Indeed, this was an embarrassing year for the Democratic Party. Having lost four senate seats, three house seats, and most importantly the presidency the Democratic Party is on the clearly on the run.

This isn’t a new trend though. This trend began with the Political aspirations of Pat Robertson in the early 1980’s when he laid the ground work for his own bid for the Presidency. Though Pat Robertson failed in his own presidential bid, the political organization he created was the direct precursor to the Christian Coalition and a well known TV outlet called the 700 club, in which many or Robertson’s Political views are expressed.

Through the success of the Christian Coalition, the Republicans took congress in the 1990’s, won the presidency in 2000, and have consolidated their power in 2004 with the hopes of replacing some old and dieing liberal supreme court justices.

I sincerely don’t believe that the Republicans actually care about the principals that the Conservative Christian is lobbying for. I’m very cynical and believe that it’s really all about money for these clowns. Worst of all, I think Republicans use these poor people in order to advance an agenda that most people don’t even agree with. This idea doesn’t hold on its own, I admit that; however I’ve undertaken some analysis over the last day and a half to advance my case.

Now we begin:

Why can homos get married in Tennessee, West Virginia, Louisiana and Texas but not in Georgia, Arkansas and Kentucky? It doesn’t make sense culturally. All the states have similar evangelical Christian populations and similar cultures. Shouldn’t this principal have been defended this year in those states too? Take a look at this…

1. Gay Marriage Amendments took place in 11 states this year. Of those 11 states, 3 were swing states, 8 had senate races (2 of which were open seats, and another was hotly contested), and 3 had governors’ races. The odds of those events happening were greater than random for all three events.

3 > 2.6, there were 12 hotly contested swing states. The odds of it happening at random is (12/50) * 11 gay marriage states = 2.6.

8 > 7.4, there were 34 States with Senate races. The odds of this happening at random is (34/50) * 11 gay marriage states = 7.4.

3 > 2.2, there were 10 States with Gov. races. The odds of this happening at random is (10/50) * 11 gay marriage states = 2.2.

2. By the way West Virginia, Texas and Tennessee all have senate Races in 2006. Louisiana has a race in 2008. Wana bet when the gay marriage amendments go up?

3. Many people site Abortion as their primary issue for voting for Republicans. It’s a good way to snipe off a large voting block and it would be tragic for the party to lose such a constituency. The Republicans have control over 3 branches of government and it’s my bet that this issue isn’t as important to them as something such as, say reelection.

Raw data

Gay Marriage Amendments
State	Name	Pass %	Evangelical (%)	Senate Race	Gov. Race
Oregon	Measure 36	57%	32%	Yes	no
Michigan	Proposition 04-2	59%	24%	no	no
Ohio	Issue 1	62%	25%	Yes	no
Utah	Amendment 3	66%	3%	Yes	Yes
Montana	Initiative 96	67%	29%	no	Yes
North Dakota	Measure 1	73%	28%	Yes	Yes
Arkansas	Amendment 3	75%	53%	Yes	no
Kentucky	Amendment 1	75%	45%	Yes	no
Georgia	Amendment 1	76%	35%	Yes	no
Oklahoma	Question 711	76%	44%	Yes	no
Mississippi	Amendment 1	86%	48%	no	no
Future Senate Races				Gay Marriage	Open Seat	Result
Blanche L. Lincoln	Arkansas	Democrat	2004	yes	D-incumbant	D
Byron L. Dorgan	North Dakota	Democrat	2004	yes	D-incumbant	D
Ronald L. Wyden	Oregon	Democrat	2004	yes	D-incumbant	D
D. Robert Graham	Florida	Democrat	2004	no	Open	R +1
Zell B. Miller	Georgia	Democrat	2004	yes	Open	R +1
Richard C. Shelby	Alabama	Republican	2004	no	R-incumbent	R
James P. D. Bunning	Kentucky	Republican	2004	yes	R-incumbent	R	very close race
George V. Voinovich	Ohio	Republican	2004	yes	R-incumbent	R
Robert F. Bennett	Utah	Republican	2004	yes	R-incumbent	R
Donald L. Nickles	Oklahoma	Republican	2004	yes	Open	R
Ben Nighthorse Campbell	Colorado	Repubublican	2004	no	Open	D +1
Barbara L. Boxer	California	Democrat	2004	no	D-incumbant	D
Christopher J. Dodd	Connecticut	Democrat	2004	no	D-incumbant	D
Daniel K. Inouye	Hawaii	Democrat	2004	no	D-incumbant	D
B. Evans "Evan" Bayh III	Indiana	Democrat	2004	no	R-incumbent	R
Barbara A. Mikulski	Maryland	Democrat	2004	no	D-incumbant	D
Harry M. Reid	Nevada	Democrat	2004	no	D-incumbant	D
Charles E. Schumer	New York	Democrat	2004	no	D-incumbant	D
Thomas A. Daschle	South Dakota	Democrat	2004	no	D-incumbant	R +1
Patrick J. Leahy	Vermont	Democrat	2004	no	D-incumbant	D
Patricia Murray	Washington	Democrat	2004	no	D-incumbant	D
Russell D. Feingold	Wisconsin	Democrat	2004	no	D-incumbant	D
John B. Breaux	Louisiana	Democrat	2004	no	Open	R +1
John R. Edwards	North Carolina	Democrat	2004	no	Open	R +1
Ernest F. "Fritz" Hollings	South Carolina	Democrat	2004	no	Open	R +1
Lisa Murkowski	Alaska	Republican	2004	no	R-incumbent	R
John S. McCain III	Arizona	Republican	2004	no	R-incumbent	R
Michael D. Crapo	Idaho	Republican	2004	no	R-incumbent	R
Charles E. Grassley	Iowa	Republican	2004	no	R-incumbent	R
Samuel D. Brownback	Kansas	Republican	2004	no	R-incumbent	R
Christopher S. "Kit" Bond	Missouri	Republican	2004	no	R-incumbent	R
Judd A. Gregg	New Hampshire	Republican	2004	no	R-incumbent	R
Arlen Specter	Pennsylvania	Republican	2004	no	R-incumbent	R
Peter G. Fitzgerald	Illinois	Republican	2004	no	Open	D +1
Dianne G. B. Feinstein	California	Democrat	2006	no
Joseph I. Lieberman	Connecticut	Democrat	2006	no
Thomas R. Carper	Delaware	Democrat	2006	no
C. William Nelson	Florida	Democrat	2006	yes
Daniel K. Akaka	Hawaii	Democrat	2006	no
Paul S. Sarbanes	Maryland	Democrat	2006	no
Ted Kennedy	Massachusetts	Democrat	2006	no
Deborah A. Stabenow	Michigan	Democrat	2006	yes
Mark Dayton	Minnesota	Democrat	2006	no
E. Benjamin Nelson	Nebraska	Democrat	2006	no
Jon S. Corzine	New Jersey	Democrat	2006	no
Jesse F. "Jeff" Bingaman Jr.	New Mexico	Democrat	2006	no
Hillary Rodham Clinton	New York	Democrat	2006	no
Kent Conrad	North Dakota	Democrat	2006	yes
Maria E. Cantwell	Washington	Democrat	2006	no
Robert C. Byrd	West Virginia	Democrat	2006	no
Herbert H. Kohl	Wisconsin	Democrat	2006	no
James M. Jeffords	Vermont	Independent	2006	no
Jon L. Kyl	Arizona	Republican	2006	no
Richard G. Lugar	Indiana	Republican	2006	no
Olympia J. Snowe	Maine	Republican	2006	no
C. Trent Lott Jr.	Mississippi	Republican	2006	yes
James M. Talent	Missouri	Republican	2006	no
Conrad R. Burns	Montana	Republican	2006	yes
John E. Ensign	Nevada	Republican	2006	no
Michael DeWine	Ohio	Republican	2006	yes
Richard J. Santorum	Pennsylvania	Republican	2006	no
Lincoln D. Chafee	Rhode Island	Republican	2006	no
William H. Frist	Tennessee	Republican	2006	no
Kay Bailey Hutchison	Texas	Republican	2006	no
Orrin G. Hatch	Utah	Republican	2006	yes
George F. Allen Jr.	Virginia	Republican	2006	no
Craig L. Thomas	Wyoming	Republican	2006	no
Mark Pryor	Arkansas	Democrat	2008	yes
Joseph R. Biden Jr.	Delaware	Democrat	2008	no
Richard J. Durbin	Illinois	Democrat	2008	no
Thomas R. Harkin	Iowa	Democrat	2008	no
Mary L. Landrieu	Louisiana	Democrat	2008	no
John F. Kerry	Massachusetts	Democrat	2008	no
Carl M. Levin	Michigan	Democrat	2008	yes
Max S. Baucus	Montana	Democrat	2008	yes
Frank R. Lautenberg	New Jersey	Democrat	2008	no
John F. "Jack" Reed	Rhode Island	Democrat	2008	no
Timothy P. Johnson	South Dakota	Democrat	2008	no
John D. "Jay" Rockefeller IV	West Virginia	Democrat	2008	no
Jefferson B. Sessions III	Alabama	Republican	2008	no
Theodore F. Stevens	Alaska	Republican	2008	no
A. Wayne Allard	Colorado	Republican	2008	no
C. Saxby Chambliss	Georgia	Republican	2008	yes
Larry E. Craig	Idaho	Republican	2008	no
C. Patrick Roberts	Kansas	Republican	2008	no
A. Mitchell McConnell Jr.	Kentucky	Republican	2008	yes
Susan M. Collins	Maine	Republican	2008	no
Norm Coleman	Minnesota	Republican	2008	no
W. Thad Cochran	Mississippi	Republican	2008	yes
Charles T. Hagel	Nebraska	Republican	2008	no
John E. Sununu	New Hampshire	Republican	2008	no
Peter V. Domenici	New Mexico	Republican	2008	no
Elizabeth H. Dole	North Carolina	Republican	2008	no
James M. Inhofe	Oklahoma	Republican	2008	yes
Gordon H. Smith	Oregon	Republican	2008	yes
Lindsey O. Graham	South Carolina	Republican	2008	no
Lamar A. Alexander	Tennessee	Republican	2008	no
John Cornyn	Texas	Republican	2008	no
John W. Warner	Virginia	Republican	2008	no
Michael B. Enzi	Wyoming	Republican	2008	no